Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[John Badrick]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

LOL no I don't, I was just being positive about a DRY spell on the way that the models are showing but I can do without being criticized for being positive! Don't think I will bother posting if this is the attitude I'm going to get...thanks a lot!

Thank god for that!!! only joking, no attitude from me, just a coldies perocative , squeezing the last bit of cold  hope from the back end of my favourite season. We have 6 months ahead to chase for warm plumes and heat waves, we don't want to start with the mild chasing too early!!

[Speedway Slider]

3 hours ago, Eastwoods said:

Hi speedway slider found these on meteociel sorry they aren't translated. If you go onto meteociel and search dates in the archive section you can select the dates you require. I believe that 2nd June is the event you are looking for but I couldn't find any anomaly charts perhaps some of the more knowledgeable on here could help further.

Great, thanks Eastwoods and bring back 1962-63!!

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs much more amplified than eps to the west with a strong greeny anomoly in two weeks time. 

 

 

Yes, I was thinking that unless there is a big change in that London temperature graph tonight at 11.30, then the GEFS must be the more Amplified suite.

[Toppler]

1 hour ago, Timmytour said:

Actually 1868/69 was a warmer winter Karl.  And although this winter has made it as the second warmest since records began, it's strange to think, in this era, we had to wait over 145 years for a winter warm enough to break into the top two warmest winters ever and move 1833/34 down to 3rd place

 

 

Might take a while to get the corrected figures but this is quoted in the met winter stats-

 

"Looking at the Central England Temperature (CET), the longest temperature record in the world, this winter's figure of 7.0C currently makes it the warmest in the series (back to 1659), beating the previous record of 6.8C in 1868-69."

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/winter-stats

Edited March 9, 2016 by Toppler

[Timmytour]

24 minutes ago, Toppler said:

 

Might take a while to get the corrected figures but this is quoted in the met winter stats-

 

"Looking at the Central England Temperature (CET), the longest temperature record in the world, this winter's figure of 7.0C currently makes it the warmest in the series (back to 1659), beating the previous record of 6.8C in 1868-69."

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/winter-stats

I think that page was with five days to go of February ....an update is here

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/winter-statistics

Quote

In the Central England Temperature record series, the longest temperature record in the world dating back to 1659, this winter has been the second-warmest at 6.7C, just behind  the previous record of 6.8C set 1869.

 

[nick sussex]

I wonder whether that pool of colder air that gets advected west might get upgraded over the next few days. The ECM and GFS both have this running east to west and this is associated with a small disturbance in the flow.

The GFS has this currently mainly rain but something to look out for if the 850's get upgraded. A bit frustrating to see these good synoptics appearing in March. Wheres my time machine!

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, John Badrick said:

 You keep banging on about warm spring weather, but like shotski said it ain't gonna be that pleasant this time of year especially under cloud cover it will feel quite raw.

I think its a bit uncertain to say whether this spell of high pressure will be a cloudy high or a more sunny high but it does look like the highest of the temps will be the further North and West you are however a change in the modelling of the high could change all that. 

Hopefully the GFS won't be accurate as it is the coolest out of them all whereas the ECM and UKMO does look a bit more optimistic of something more milder although how much sunshine there will be is very much in the air. 

[phil nw.]

As singularity pointed out the models continue to show the bulk of the vortex being moved over to the Siberian side and both ens outputs at day 10 agree on this.

so the deep cold as expected digging south over Russia but signs on the gefs outputs that that colder upper trough starts to move south westwards towards W.Europe by day 15

so maybe our high retreating and ridging north further out in the Atlantic sandwiched between a developing Canadian trough and the Scandi trough to our east.The likely outcome a rather cold unsettled north westerly flow.

 

still nothing untoward showing up in the latest temp. ens this evening.

Edited March 9, 2016 by phil nw.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just been looking at the 8-14 day anomaly chart from noaa show a scandi trough with a south of BI trough,now we need this to cut further east of southern BI to get that trough in scandi to advect west/southwest to the BI and no nuisance shortwaves toppling over the block enhibiting more preasure rises up toward greenland(retrogression)

the gfs did this on the 12z of which i thought wasn't a bad run and was pretty identical to the 8-14 dayer i posted above

then the 18z,well.....

as they say,more runs needed,but i will say this,my towels are still in the cupboard at the mo,

@nick sussex come on buddy,i will take you back to 1962/63

 

 

Edited March 9, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[knocker]

A quick summation of this morning's GFS. HP dominating but generally centred to the east so no raging temps but certainly a quet settled period of weather. This breaks down rather quickly towards the end of next week as systems from the west nudge in bringing some very variable weather with temps generally around average but perhaps a little above.

The anomalies this morning are are so similar to the 12Z run yesterday I'll just repeat the spiel I attached then but just to add with the UK trough a tad further west perhaps the upper flow more westerly and not quite so cool.

Quote

The GEFS 5-10 is showing signs of increasing height NW from our resident HP cell which from it's orientation will bring cooler temps than was at first anticipated but still obviously remaining dry. And importantly there is a deep cut off upper low in mid Atlantic.

In the ext period this evolution continues with heights building over Greenland with the LP moving east backing the upper flow SW bringing temps briefly above average. Continuing this theme we end up with ridging into Greenland with a trough over the UK connected to the main trough in NE Europe. This will veer the upper flow NW and bring some period of unsettled wintry weather to the UK with temps a little below average although will be a few swings and roundabouts with this.

The cold air remains locked over NE Europe

Be afraid, be very afraid.

Edited March 10, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

It's looking like a decent weekend coming up with high pressure in the ascendancy, not wall to wall sunshine but some good cloud breaks allowing sunny spells, just some rain to clear from the far NW / N on Saturday but no fronts to bother about on Sun / Mon, max temps nudging into double digits celsius but feeling better than that in any sunshine although nights on the chilly side with a risk of a ground frost...nice to have a spell of dry weather for a change!

Edited March 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAR 10TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  A weakening occluded front will lie across the East of the UK weakening further through the day as pressure rises  strongly across the UK. Further weak fronts will approach the NW later tonight and tomorrow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the next few days especially across the North and West where the generally close to 3000ft freezing level across the SE will rise above 5000ft across NW Britain tomorrow. As a result no snow is expected across the UK today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming less cold and mostly dry with some sunshine by day and frost at night. Perhaps becoming less settled again later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is expected to turn North towards Icland across the Atlantic over the coming days as pressure builds across the UK. the flow remains well NW for a time while the Southern arm of the flow becomes more influential to the UK as it migrates further North later next week in association with falling pressure. The flow becomes more variable for a time before reverting to a flow well South of the UK again is projected late in the period. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows pressure rising across the South of the UK over the next few days as Low pressure over the South subsides away South. A belt of High pressure then lies in a belt across Southern Britain by the weekend while the North sees milder SW winds and all areas will feel the benefit of milder air for a time. Next week then shows High pressure to the east and SSE winds maintaining quite mild weather ahead of fronts bringing a change to rain at times by the second week. Through that week a change again to cold and unsettled weather is shown as Low pressure slips to the South of the UK with rain turning to snow over hills and frosts at night possible once more.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run shows a very similar trend to the Operational again this morning although it strengthens the theme towards cold easterly winds greater than the operational in week 2 as Low temperatures flood SW over Northern Europe and engages with Low pressure developing to the South and SW of the UK with some late March snow for many should it verify.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters once again today look very undecided on what the UK will lie under in two weeks time as all sorts of options are shown ranging from Low pressure across the UK with rain at times and much slacker pressure areas with benign weather and others with Low pressure to the South or SW bringing somewhat colder conditions.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows sustained High pressure building across Southern Britain in the next few days and extending slowly North later as it later rests over the North Sea. Milder air will engulf the UK for a while before temperatures ease back a little in the South later as an ESE breeze develops here but on the whole dry, fine and bright weather is expected by next week for all. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS From the Fax Charts this morning it would appear that substantially mild air is going to struggle to get down across the Southeast of the UK as a warm front introducing it continues to straddle the middle of the UK over the weekend. So while the North and West become milder with some rain at times in the far NW the South and East look like staying dry if rather cloudy and somewhat cooler than originally thought. Brighter conditions look like slowly extending NW early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning keeps the UK locked under High pressure centred close to or for most of the time over the UK with fine and at times sunny weather though with frosts at night. With light winds and reasonable uppers March sunshine should lift daytime temperatures to average if not a bit above whereas frosts at night are likely too. At the end of the 10 day period pressure is shown to leak away SE with Atlantic fronts moving in from the West later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM once developed holds High pressure close to the NE of the UK before slipping it gently South down the North Sea next week with winds turning more Southerly later and maintaining fine and in places mild weather through the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is a very settled one again with High pressure extending across Southern Britain in the next few days time and then extending to all of Britain over the weekend and beyond as the High centre lies close by. Some bright Spring sunshine looks very likely for many with some frosts at night but temperatures by day would be close to average if not above overall but with some frosts under clear skies at night. At the very end of the run High pressure is shown to leak away to the SE with unsettled conditions looking likely to develop soon after Day 10. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 240hr mean Chart this morning continues to project a High pressure ridge likely to be lying across the UK in 10 days with fine and settled conditions in light winds most probable.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is well set for the weather to become fine, settled and less cold from the latter end of the week with solid cross model support for High pressure to build across or remain close to the UK for some time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.2 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 86.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 66.0 pts to 61.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has regained the lead from GFS with a score of 47.3 pts to 45.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Changes since yesterday morning are small with regard to the prospects of a sustained and very welcome dry and settled spell of weather for all parts of the UK. With yesterday's inclement Low pressure well out of the way now the pressure is building strongly and will continue to rise over the coming few days so that a belt of High pressure from a centre near Denmark or Germany will keep Southern Britain fine and dry. In the NW we may have to wait a little longer as weak Atlantic fronts carry light rain and mild air across for several more day. However, as the High inches NW and North next week all areas become under the influence of it and this means we should all share in a lot of dry, bright and fine days with average or above average temperatures while nights are chilly with frosts in places where skies stay clear. It's not until the second week when cracks appear in this pattern with some output sliding High pressure away to the South and SE with the Atlantic winds returning or GFS which seems to favour a return to cold conditions as a cold plunge of Arctic air moves South over Europe and is steered SW towards the UK engaging with falling pressure to the South and SW with the threat of snow in places. While it does seem a repeating trend between runs I think the GEM, NAVGEM and ECM route this morning is the more likely one with a gentle return to less settled conditions with some rain at times more likely as we enter the latter stages of the month.

Next Update Friday March 11th 2016 from 09:00

[Weather-history]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's looking like a decent weekend coming up with high pressure in the ascendancy, not wall to wall sunshine but some good cloud breaks allowing sunny spells, just some rain to clear from the far NW / N on Saturday but no fronts to bother about on Sun / Mon, max temps nudging into double digits celsius but feeling better than that in any sunshine although nights on the chilly side with a risk of a ground frost...nice to have a spell of dry weather for a change!

 

Latest FAX chart does have a front across Wales and northern England on Sunday.

 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

Latest FAX chart does have a front across Wales and northern England on Sunday.

 

Despite that fax chart, the current outlook from Sat to Mon is decent for most of the uk, dry with sunny spells. 

[Frosty.]

It is still my hope that we see an Arctic shot after the anticyclonic spell, the Gfs 00z is trying..

[Singularity]

Another morning of confusing model runs. The 'bowling ball low' in the middle of the North Atlantic in the 4-7 day range seems to be giving the models an excuse to just drive the jet stream NE and over the UK based high, rather than splitting the jet with an arm diving into Europe and trough disruption ensuing.

Not what I'd expect to see given tropical and strat. forcing, but in this most peculiar of times, it somehow seems fitting. Especially what ECM does with that shortwave feature getting stuck by Greenland:

 

Downright comical, really. Take that out of the picture and, given how the mid-Atlantic low steps back west, we'd have a strong high setting up to the NW of the UK.

This run even tries to spill some of the cold down into the U.S., against Cohen's expectations. The Arctic High is aligned at 90 degrees to what's anticipated.
Honestly, if that happens, a possible role of climate change will have to be considered (via distortion of the El Nino background state).

Edit: a hypothesis of mine is that the unusually extensive positive SST anomalies in the Pacific are leading to more poleward ridges into the western U.S. than would be expected during a typical El Nino (in which they are already enhanced), while the coincidence of warm SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean (an unprecedented combination) is also interfering with affairs, but in a manner that I am not sure about at this point in time - perhaps some effect on the arrangement of heights across eastern Asia which may have helped bottle up the cold in that area during the winter.

Edited March 10, 2016 by Singularity
hypothesis

[joggs]

9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Another morning of confusing model runs. The 'bowling ball low' in the middle of the North Atlantic in the 4-7 day range seems to be giving the models an excuse to just drive the jet stream NE and over the UK based high, rather than splitting the jet with an arm diving into Europe and trough disruption ensuing.

Not what I'd expect to see given tropical and strat. forcing, but in this most peculiar of times, it somehow seems fitting. Especially what ECM does with that shortwave feature getting stuck by Greenland:

 

Downright comical, really. Take that out of the picture and, given how the mid-Atlantic low steps back west, we'd have a strong high setting up to the NW of the UK.

This run even tries to spill some of the cold down into the U.S., against Cohen's expectations. The Arctic High is aligned at 90 degrees to what's anticipated.
Honestly, if that happens, a possible role of climate change will have to be considered (via distortion of the El Nino background state).

Tbh,Cohen's musings over the winter have tended to be mixed at times and not always right.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z pumps some warm air northwards through FI from southern Europe with temps as high as 18-19c in the south along with some good spells of sunshine and a few heavy showers. It would be a nice little taste of things to come!

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly at day ten although agreeing with the GEFS on stretching the HP NW into the Iceland area is not keen on the mid Atlantic trough. So in the ext EPS it does not build heights to any great extent in the Greenland area and has a much more westerly zonal flow with just a general area of low pressure spreading SW from the Main trough which remains in NE Europe. Ergo some unsettled weather with temps varying around the norm.

Edited March 10, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Well don't tell me you were expecting such a GFS run this time yesterday. The little disturbance running east to west now joins forces with the bigger low in the Atlantic and sinks the block!

GEFS pretty happy with this idea too

leading quickly to:

ECM mean much slower in doing this:

And if the NOAA is correct (a fair match for the ECM at D6), the GFS idea has no hope:

But no doubt some in the England will be more than happy if the GFS trumps the rest, as the following weekend may go on to challenge the magical 20C mark

High pressure over the UK has had a habit of collapsing rather quickly in recent years, so it wouldn't be a surprise at all if it gets shifted one way or the other before expected - and the odds this morning are slightly in favour of a SE rather than NW shift

 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a warm up from the south through FI with high pressure eventually becoming centred to the SE and low pressure anchored out to the west enabling a warm flow sourced from southern Europe to waft north into the uk. Although I'm a coldie, I like spring warmth too..why would anyone be unhappy about warm spring weather?

[feb1991blizzard]

A belting for NE Scotland from this.

 

[KyleHenry]

With so many changes to the model output. 

The pattern I see is the 19th for the beginning of the much anticipated results of the SSW for UK. 

Hit or miss?

[Singularity]

 

 

With the UKMO run on the left, the logical progression looks to be a move of HP NW from the UK, supported by the mid-Atlantic low, while the trough west of Greenland is held in-situ or possibly scoots over to merge with the Siberian vortex lobe.

With the GFS run on the right, the direction of travel is less obvious, but the model does raise heights to the NW going forward. Yet it also has the UK high retreating SE as opposed to joining forces with the height rises over Greenland:

To me this suggests that a weak, yet significant, polar jet is maintained between the UK and Greenland, rather than developing a break that the ridge can move through. That being what ECM got a bit carried away with in its 00z run.

So often in the past I have seen heights get drawn quickly NW from the UK under scenarios similar to where UKMO is at +144, especially in the summer months (because that's how it has to be, right? ). There's certainly a stronger 'nose' of high heights NW from the UK, with the Atlantic and Siberian troughs less inclined to interact over the following days.

Overall I am sensing that a sudden, quite dramatic change to the outlook for the 6-8 day period may occur. If not, we escape the cold for a few days longer but won't yet be out of the woods, as GFS shows to some effect in the 10-12 day period. Add in a stronger response to the SSW and/or tropical forcing and it may be a long old battle to escape winter's grasp for good. Hopefully I'm wrong about that!

[Daniel*]

You wonder whether there is much point commenting run to run such is the complexities of a major SSW the atmosphere is behaving in a way which I think will be v hard for UK to be spared some wintry promise, undoubtedly northern Britain, particularly Scotland do not be deceived that winter is over. It might come back and bite you! 

seismic reshuffle going on...