Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Banbury]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Really, as a coldie I'm quite encouraged by the latest models as there is generally a signal for below average temperatures indicated and rather cold at times. I also understand that we could be looking at winds predominantly from north of west, perhaps even a direct northerly from the arctic at times during march..unless I am mistaken.

I'm not ready to let go of wintry potential in march or even April for that matter having been so short changed from the last 3 months!

I'm in your camp , with the charts as they are , I wouldnt be surprised at all if flakes at at night IMBY at some point

[Banbury]

Wintry potential

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z shows a generally rather chilly feeling outlook with winds predominantly from north of west drawing polar maritime air down across the uk from midweek and there is even some snow in places, especially across northern hills but on lower ground in the south and east too from time to time, max temps only reach 10 / 11 c next Tuesday afternoon which could be considered as on the mild side but otherwise temps are at least a few degrees lower, with some night frosts and cold enough at times for wintry ppn...not spring like by any means!

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead, it doesn't get any milder on the Gfs18z, indeed, it turns a little colder with more of a blocked look to the charts through low res and eventually high pressure becomes centred to the north / north west of the UK with a decidedly chilly and strong Ely / NEly airflow for much of the uk which would make it feel much colder than the thermometer shows.

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking further ahead, it doesn't get any milder on the Gfs18z, indeed, it turns a little colder with more of a blocked look to the charts through low res and eventually high pressure becomes centred to the north / north west of the UK with a decidedly chilly and strong Ely / NEly airflow for much of the uk which would make it feel much colder than the thermometer shows.

To be honest, I have been seeing these widespread pink snow nirvana charts for what seems like an eternity this winter. The sad thing is I am still waiting for them to verify.

[Daniel*]

Excuse my outburst but WTF was you when we needed you really adds insult to injury! 

Calm down Daniel 

(think I had too much to drink). 

Edited February 28, 2016 by Daniel*

[Faronstream]

00Z models this night looks far from real Cold for long range in 850hpa (both GFS and ECM) as it was just a couple of days ago, big dissapointment, hoping for a change with much colder 850hpa temperatures

[Frosty.]

It's official, winter 2015 / 16 is the warmest across England and Wales since records began in 1659. The winter as a whole was very warm and very wet nationwide with December playing a major role in that statistic because Jan and especially Feb have not been as mild or wet. 

The Gfs 00z generally speaking shows plenty of pm shots with snow on northern hills and a wintry mix lower down and further south at times, it's only Tuesday in the week ahead which shows a mild day, apart from that, it looks wet and windy at times through high res with a wintry mix and then as with the 18z last night, synoptically it becomes more blocked and colder with high pressure building across the north settling things down up there and some snow for the southern half of the UK so we change the season to spring but the weather does not look spring like at all on this run!

[Timmytour]

The models have been good this winter....unfortunately it's my hearing as I  get older that's been the problem.

So  many times I've though they were screaming out "there's snow potential!!" to me ......only to find out as they got closer was what they really calling out to me was "there's no potential"!

[karlos1983]

Nice easterly in later reaches of the GFS 00z. I'd happily take that. Shown up a couple of times now so lets hope it continues to be modeled 

 

Edited February 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY FEB 28TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A strong ridge of High pressure lying across Scotland will slip South across England and Wales over the next 24 hours or so with a strengthening Westerly flow developing across the North as a trough of Low pressure approaches the West and NW later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains around 2000-3000ft. The level will begin to creep upwards later tomorrow in the extreme West. There will be very little wintry precipitation anywhere across the UK today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold and breezy with rain or showers at times with snow on hills. Temperatures mostly rather below average with frosts at night in places.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream's main theme this morning shows a SE moving flow from Newfoundland to Southern Europe on this morning's forecast before it becomes a rather more variable feature through Week 2 especially over Europe.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the next week becoming unsettled and windy with rain and showers at times as a strong Westerly flow begins to take hold across the UK from tomorrow. This flow veers NW or North at times with colder air sweeping South at times behind several milder interludes with rain as Low pressure plummets SE over Europe. The South then shows a more coherent drier and possibly less chilly spell for a time at the start of the second week as High pressure edges up closer to the South before this recedes West and then North swinging winds back through North to a more Easterly flow with cold and frosty weather perhaps with a few wintry showers near eastern coasts ends the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme is very similar in theme through Week 1 this morning but following a cold and wintry Northerly flow sees High pressure move across the UK from the West in Week 2 maintaining it then across the UK for the final week with dry, fine and sunny weather by day and very frosty conditions by night in light winds and pleasant enough feeling days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show High pressure being the controlling feature in two weeks time with the centre likely to lie close to the West with a chilly North flow likely but a lot of dry weather too. Those that don't support this theme show more influence from Low pressure to the North and NE while a few show High pressure to the NE with a SE flow and Low pressure over the Atlantic so no overwhelming evidence of one pattern between one pattern or another yet.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows milder, unsettled and windy conditions developing this week with several spells of wet and windy weather sweeping East and SE across the UK on Tuesday and again on Thursday with cold and showery NW winds in between with wintry showers on hills especially over the North and West later in the week as complex Low pressure by then lies over the UK by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a complex but generally unsettled and windy period of weather developing this week with rain at times followed by cold NW winds with wintry showers on occasion later in the week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today shows a rather cold and unsettled spell coming up with winds from a chilly NW direction for a large proportion of the time over the next 10 days.. In between will be short milder and wet weather with some heavy rain in places with all the above giving way to drier and cold conditions towards the end of the period as a strong ridge of High pressure builds NE across the UK at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today too shows an unsettled and rather cold week to come with Low pressure areas slipping SE across the UK or the North Sea over the next week with rain and showers turning wintry at times over the hills with something a little drier and brighter though still chilly conditions developing right at the end of the period as a ridge builds NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning shows cold and unsettled and windy conditions for all of the UK over the next 10 days with Low pressure systems taking a SE route either down the North Sea or across the UK through the period, each bringing a spell of rain and strong winds followed by a chilly or cold NW flow with wintry showers with snow on high ground and some frosts at night. The pattern shows a look of a rinse and repeat pattern at day 10 as Low pressure appears poised to move SE again from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows a gradual shift East of the trough previously shown across the UK suggesting a gradual trend towards High pressure becoming more influential from the West at that time with temperatures still rather chilly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme shows rather cold and unsettled weather for the UK with winds generally between West and North throughout though some growing evdence towards more settled conditions is shown by some later.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.5 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 87.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.0 pts to 64.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 52.1 pts to GFS's 50.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  This weeks weather is going to be characterized by a lot of rather cold and windy weather as Low pressure areas stream down from the NW over the North Sea and later across the UK with bands of rain followed by showers likely for all areas through the week. With winds dragged down from Northern latitudes in the showery air some snowfall is likely over the hills especially over the North and the chill will often be accentuated by the strength of the breeze at times too with some frosts at night. Then looking further ahead there appears to be a chance that High pressure will with time ridge across the UK from the SW settling things down somewhat with rather chilly bright or even sunny days but with more widespread sharp night time frosts. However, this pattern looks far from a given as there is also support for a continuation of a similar theme as this week with further rain and wintry showers at times in a theme of weather coming down from the NW across the UK at times. Whichever, way the weather turns in week 2 there is little to suggest that the weather is going to feel particularly Springlike in the coming few weeks with temperatures remaining overall somewhat below average. Having said all that the pattern is a typical early Spring one with any winds from the NW or North threatening at least a view of wintriness falling from the sky commonplace in March with the coming two weeks offering this chance at times. With temperatures suppressed and the Winter we have had as being so mild I'm sure that at times it will feel as cold as anything we have experienced through the Winter months so for many looking for early Spring it may feel a long way away still at times in the next few weeks.          

Next Update Monday February 29th 2016 from 09:00 

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Really, as a coldie I'm quite encouraged by the latest models as there is generally a signal for below average temperatures indicated and rather cold at times. I also understand that we could be looking at winds predominantly from north of west, perhaps even a direct northerly from the arctic at times during march..unless I am mistaken.

I'm not ready to let go of wintry potential in march or even April for that matter having been so short changed from the last 3 months!

i dont see anything wintry this morning, and after several arctic shots that failed to deliver anything properly cold - even this easterly is a feline cat from the east, not a beast,  whilst theres nothing very mild on offer (which for early march isnt unusual) theres nowt cold either - im not fretting about the outlook and how itll effect my work.

so i dont really see the point in getting hopeful about 'below average' temps, as thats pretty normal .

the anomaly charts suggest the azores ridge might move closer after next weekend, so it might become less showery/wet especially in the west and temps should recover to near average.

edit...i see the swear filter has altered a genuine phrase , obvs i wasnt using the 'p' word (in relation to cats) in a vulgar manner!

Edited February 28, 2016 by mushymanrob

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Excuse my outburst but WTF was you when we needed you really adds insult to injury! 

Calm down Daniel 

 

(think I had too much to drink). 

i wouldnt worry too much about these charts, the noaa anomaly charts do not support such a synoptic pattern, so is highly unlikely to happen?

[Frosty.]

31 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont see anything wintry this morning

I do, and those Gfs 00z charts show wintry potential this morning with an increasingly blocked and colder further outlook and some polar maritime shots during the next week or so...Tuesday is the only mild day!

[weathernuts]

28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i wouldnt worry too much about these charts, the noaa anomaly charts do not support such a synoptic pattern, so is highly unlikely to happen?

However, it is supported by Glosea5, well at least it was a couple of days ago. Height rises to the N/W of the BI

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the snow row on the GFS charts the highest chance of snow away from Scotland looks to be mid week (remember the closer to 23 the greater the chance)

The further south you go the chance of snow gets lower thats not to say some higher ground will see some snow of course

[karlos1983]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at the snow row on the GFS charts the highest chance of snow away from Scotland looks to be mid week (remember the closer to 23 the greater the chance)

The further south you go the chance of snow gets lower thats not to say some higher ground will see some snow of course

The closer to 23? Not sure I get that ss. 23 what

Edited February 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

 

 

24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I do, and those Gfs 00z charts show wintry potential this morning with an increasingly blocked and colder further outlook and some polar maritime shots during the next week or so...Tuesday is the only mild day!

Agree Frosty and Friday looks like wintry ppn could be around the UK

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 28, 2016 by Banbury

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The closer to 23? Not sure I get that ss. 23 what

The number of ensemble members that have snow falling at any one timeframe.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Banbury said:

 

 

Agree Frosty and Friday looks like wintry ppn could be around the UK

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, to say there is nothing wintry showing on this morning's model output is misleading, it appears to me we are looking at a rather chilly feeling and generally unsettled outlook and some parts of the uk will see a wintry mix with night frosts at times and there is a signal for increasingly blocked conditions developing during March.

[knocker]

This morning's anomaly charts, and last evening's NOAA, suggest little change to the 14 day outlook that has been consistent for the last few days. The 6-10s have the ridge mid Atlantic and the trough just to the east of the UK thus maintaining the NW upper flow. So a continuation of periods of wet and unsettled weather, sometimes wintry with perhaps some transient snow events in the north and high ground, But interspersed with drier interludes which leads to a fair variation in temperature but generally below average. Towards the end of this period there is a general movement east of the ridge and trough.

This movement east continues during the 10-15 day period until the HP is just to the west of the UK and thus becomes the dominant feature of our weather. This portends a more drier and settled period, certainly for a while, albeit with the temps still depressed but nearer the average towards the end of the period.

Time for a touch of Max Bygraves methinks.

Edited February 28, 2016 by knocker

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes, to say there is nothing wintry showing on this morning's model output is misleading, it appears to me we are looking at a rather chilly feeling and generally unsettled outlook and some parts of the uk will see a wintry mix with night frosts at times and there is a signal for increasingly blocked conditions developing during March.

Just to show there is the potential on Friday for some white stuff falling

[Banbury]

ECM and GFS very different at 216...................deep into FI of course

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECM and GFS very different at 216...................deep into FI of course

The ensembles are closer both showing high pressure slowly moving closer by leaving us with a chilly north westerly flow

Edited February 28, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Banbury]

At 216 the Op was on the mild side of the run, the majority much cooler - 9 days away so of subject to change