Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards

[Frost HoIIow]

Is this normally a good sign the main jet digging well south?

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Definitely looking interesting over next week onwards with generally cool/cold air taking over next week,  I think we could see a dominant Scandi block develop into March with nagging easterly, and wouldn't that be ironic!!!!

 

BFTP

[Ice Day]

More cracking charts from the GFS, this at 168.  The uppers aren't what they should be but are probably sufficient for wintery stuff!

[Allseasons-Si]

Well!

we have a stalling front  against a sub -6 air off the mainland heading west on this run from 144 hrs to 156 hrs which would deliver a good dumping of snow

fantastic sfuff

 

[feb1991blizzard]

18z GFS is a ripper for a right frntal dumping.

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Anyone looking for any snow?

[chicken soup]

I wouldnt trust those GFS precip charts at 24 hours never mind a week away.

[feb1991blizzard]

28 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Is this normally a good sign the main jet digging well south?

 

Affirmative.

[IPredictASnowStorm]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

I wouldnt trust those GFS precip charts at 24 hours never mind a week away.

Pub run at this time

[Tim Bland]

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

I wouldnt trust those GFS precip charts at 24 hours never mind a week away.

Very true but there is nothing wrong in discussing them

[IPredictASnowStorm]

dont get too excited that will change soon

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

 

 

[swilliam]

Just now, IPredictASnowStorm said:

dont get too excited that will change soon

 

We know  - we are just discussing what is being shown.

[IPredictASnowStorm]

always misses out central london everytime 

[Kentspur]

Typical that Kent is about the only county on any of those charts not to get any snowfall - good job its a few days away and will change! Lets hope for a nationwide snow event, oh and for once a decent Easterly/ ENEerly

Edited February 21, 2016 by Polar Maritime
Removed quote box.

[Allseasons-Si]

Fair bit off but,round two anyone?

another trough coming down from iceland

 

[The Enforcer]

16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

 

When those charts fail to produce 4cm at T+81: 1cm at T+186 is a much bigger leap of faith.

12 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

always misses out central london everytime 

Looking at the elevation required according to that chart - at least 300 metres - most places missing out in fact.

Edited February 20, 2016 by The Enforcer

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Finally the jetstream underneath us 

[Bristawl Si]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

 

All that is showing is hill/mountain snow and the rest get a sugar dusting.

Pretty well useless charts.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Looking at the elevation required - at least 300 metres - most places missing out in fact according to that chart.

300 meters is the level at which the air temp will be 0c at head height. Ground temp could be around freezing along with -5c upper air temp and low DP. Hence why it shows lying snow in areas below 300m 

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

All that is showing is hill/mountain snow and the rest get a sugar dusting.

Pretty well useless charts.

Do you mean that chart in particular or the run in general? To say that there will be nothing but a sugar dusting for low levels on this run is just plain wrong. 

Way too far away to take seriously though.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, Nick L said:

Do you mean that chart in particular or the run in general? To say that there will be nothing but a sugar dusting for low levels on this run is just plain wrong. 

Way too far away to take seriously though.

Pretty obvious my post refers to "that chart in particular". 

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Pretty obvious my post refers to "that chart in particular". 

Well you said "useless charts". 

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Well you said "useless charts". 

Agreed. It's one of many this Winter.

[Frosty.]

There is plenty of wintry weather on the Gfs 18z op run tonight with much more than a sugar dusting for some areas, there is some heavy precipitation at times and most of it is of snow with moderate to heavy falls affecting various parts of the UK..this would easily be the best spell of the winter so far for the majority on here!