South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[Blessed Weather]

39 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I seriously hope it doesn't happen this way, wow, I've heard of beware of march winds but I'm not sure this is all that common at this time of year.

I agree. And of course these forecasts are still three days away, so there's plenty of time yet for the above forecasts to ease back to just a 'normal' windy day. But the situation is certainly one to keep an eye on over the next few days.

[March]

Despite the outlook, at least tomorrow is looking beautiful. 

[tinybill]

just  a  re-post  from  j  h  looks like  we  might need  to batten down on  Monday   not looking  good for us  at the  moment  happy  easter !!!

The uncertainty in the models and the Fax charts remains this morning. All now seem to have decided against any possibility of it staying south over northern France. The idea of it exiting somewhere between the Humber and the Thames estuary that seemed favourite yesterday has been shift by all 3 main models to north of the Humber, currently around Newcastle looking the most likely. 

The T_84 Fax chart issues by Met at 0547 this morning gives their latest ideas. Just north of the Humber centre 969mb from its value of 1001mb on Sunday 00Z around 47N32W, so a fair amount of deepening expected. This helps turn it left of its track and looks okay looking at the 300mb predicted flow with it embedded in the jet and exiting in what looks like the left exit region.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the sky is completely clear of cloud, it should be a mostly sunny and pleasant day. Well one out of 4 isn't bad..... 

[AdamStorm7891]

Definitely a case of the calm before the storm today I think with beautiful sunny weather on the cards, then the rest of the Easter weekend is all downhill with rain and strong to gale-force winds moving in tomorrow, squally and potentially thundery showers on Sunday and then the possibility of a significant storm on Monday!

[afcone]

Warning issued by Met Office for Monday now too:

Quote

Issued at: 
1042 on Fri 25 Mar 2016

Valid from: 
0015 on Mon 28 Mar 2016

Valid to: 
1900 on Mon 28 Mar 2016

Winds will strengthen markedly across southern England and south Wales from the start of Monday, with the potential for 50-60 mph gusts inland and 70 mph gusts around coasts exposed to the south and west. The winds will then ease from the southwest from mid-morning, this improvement progressing to eastern areas by late afternoon or evening. Additional hazards may include large waves around exposed coasts as well as a period of heavy rain. Please be aware of the potential for disruption to outdoor activities and travel, as well as the possibility of fallen trees and temporary interruptions to power supplies.

An area of low pressure is expected to rapidly deepen to the southwest of the UK later on Sunday and then run northeastwards across England and Wales on Monday accompanied by some very strong winds, large coastal waves and heavy rain. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty over the track and timing of this system and so where and when the peaks of strongest winds will occur, however, there is a developing signal for a period of disruptive winds across parts of England and Wales. This alert will be updated in the coming days in light of further information.

 

[stainesbloke]

Monday looks like it could be quite a nasty day, still time for the system to shift, even a small southwards movement would take us out of the stormy winds. Fingers crossed!

[lassie23]

19 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Monday looks like it could be quite a nasty day, still time for the system to shift, even a small southwards movement would take us out of the stormy winds. Fingers crossed!

Any chance of it turning to snow on its northern edge

[stainesbloke]

39 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Any chance of it turning to snow on its northern edge

Lol....noooooooo! 

[Daniel*]

What a beautiful day you cannot beat days like this not cold nor warm nice and fresh.

[Daniel*]

It's official

 

Highly unusual to get these depressions at this time of year - this one looks discrete from anything we've seen over the winter. I would not like to be aboard a ferry to Calais.  

Southern coastal areas may go Amber just throwing it out there, it is too soon for decisive warnings clearly.

 

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

 

Southern coastal areas may go Amber just throwing it out there, it is too soon for decisive warnings clearly.

 

You may well be right Daniel. This afternoon's NMM and Arpege output, whilst differing in timing, both have some very, very strong wind gusts for the South coast. With NMM now in range it's supporting yesterday's Arpege forecast of 120 km/h (75 mph). But today's forecast from Arpege is worrying, with what looks like gusts of 150 km/h (93 mph)!!

NMM Mon 05.00  Arpege Mon 08.00 

[tinybill]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

You may well be right Daniel. This afternoon's NMM and Arpege output, whilst differing in timing, both have some very, very strong wind gusts for the South coast. With NMM now in range it's supporting yesterday's Arpege forecast of 120 km/h (75 mph). But today's forecast from Arpege is worrying, with what looks like gusts of 150 km/h (93 mph)!!

NMM Mon 05.00  Arpege Mon 08.00 

well  could   kate  be  the great storm  again  i  hope  not  its looking   good  they worrying  at  the  moment   she almost  on the same track

Edited March 25, 2016 by tinybill

[alexisj9]

Been a lovely day today, now lets see what this wind and rain does over the next few day's. Let's hope Katie doesn't do what the ST Jude's day storm was meant to.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS 00z gone out on its own and pushes the low further south, I think the 06z will correct it a touch further north 

The low is deepening over us which is not something we have seen all winter as the lows through winter had already gone through the deepening stage before hitting us

60-70mph over land looks plausible with prehaps 80-90mph in exposure on the coast

Still time for change with tomorrow's runs the ones firming up on detail 

With the system Monday it looks as though it will all happen before we wake up with the strongest winds during the early hours of Monday (that's a good thing)

Rainfall will also be an issue with maybe 1-2" of rain for some 

Before that we have today's wind and rain to contend with 50mph gusts for a short time this afternoon as a pretty active front moves through 

Tomorrow sees a mixture ofsunshine and the chance of a few potent showers with the odd rumble and hail 

 

Edited March 26, 2016 by Surrey

[AdamStorm7891]

37 minutes ago, Surrey said:

GFS 00z gone out on its own and pushes the low further south, I think the 06z will correct it a touch further north 

The low is deepening over us which is not something we have seen all winter as the lows through winter had already gone through the deepening stage before hitting us

60-70mph over land looks plausible with prehaps 80-90mph in exposure on the coast

Still time for change with tomorrow's runs the ones firming up on detail 

With the system Monday it looks as though it will all happen before we wake up with the strongest winds during the early hours of Monday (that's a good thing)

Rainfall will also be an issue with maybe 1-2" of rain for some 

Before that we have today's wind and rain to contend with 50mph gusts for a short time this afternoon as a pretty active front moves through 

Tomorrow sees a mixture ofsunshine and the chance of a few potent showers with the odd rumble and hail 

 

Deepening over land you say, would this suggest a potential Sting Jet?  The prospect of 70mph inland gusts and 90mph on the coast is certainly pretty grim, would certainly put it on a par with the St 'Jude storm at the very least.

[Dami]

Lovely day yesterday, bubs has a party today and the weather is nasty. Always the way.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

10 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

Deepening over land you say, would this suggest a potential Sting Jet?  The prospect of 70mph inland gusts and 90mph on the coast is certainly pretty grim, would certainly put it on a par with the St 'Jude storm at the very least.

Erm I don't think so the jet won't be aligned properly the low spins out of the jet as it buckles south 

[Snoopie42]

Morning all of you lovely people! It's been very quiet lately, not sure I have ever seen the threads so quiet! Anyway, at least this weekend we have a few weather events worthy of discussion!  at last! LOL

Yesterday was stunning! Went for a walk in Burnham Beeches and it really did feel like spring had sprung... Some pics below (a bit boring I know, photography is certainly not my bag)......  

  

We saw hundreds of frogs mating which was a sight, and the noise they were making was incredible, something I have never witnessed before! Take a look at the picture below....see anything unusual?.....

.........look closer......

........a turtle / terrapin! 

.. It even had a small baby with it! Astonishing!....

Now to more weather related things! As @Surrey has mentioned above, certainly some wild weather going to affect the region over the next few days (hopefully my pond will fill up!). Also a chance of some convective showers with the region under an unstable air mass, and even a storm or two not out of the question! 

 

CAPE values low to mid 100's, negative lifted index along with diurnal heating should help to create some interest! As usual Lincoln seems to be the hotpot!  What is it with Lincoln, do they not know that it's important to have a storm shield! Storms are dangerous! May see if they want to borrow mine until next Autumn?! LOL! Enough from me, have a wonderful weekend all! 

 

 

 

[Ben Lewis]

Stunning day yesterday. Absolutely beautiful.

Back to the mind numbing boring Wet & Windy weather from today that we've had all winter. Nothing new.... 

Come on the 2nd half April - do your stuff and bring back the benign weather. Only this time make it warmer :-) 

[Blessed Weather]

The NMM and Arpege high res output overnight is singing from the same hyme sheet for the storm force southerly winds (ahead of the cold front) that will impact the Channel & southern coastal counties in the early hours of Monday morning. Both models going for max gusts of 120 km/h (75 mph) at around 03.00

Arpege  NMM

Then interestingly, the Arpege goes on to show that the westerly winds that follow the cold front a few hours later are even stronger, peaking at 140 km/h (87 mph) at 11.00. The NMM disagrees completely on this one, showing nothing of note once the front goes through. GFS 0.25 model agrees with NMM. We will see, but looking like the Arpege has had one pastis too many!!

Arpege  NMM

[Captain Shortwave]

Well back to cloud today, rain and wind expected later. 

Not sure of what to think about Monday, there are a lot of things in play that could unleash a pretty severe storm for our part of the world or could deliver very little in terms of wind. The latest GFS out now has 60-70mph gusts but only really for Kent and East Anglia with areas west of this seeing very little in terms of wind. Most notably seems to be the chance that the system could interact with another secondary low sitting over Scotland that could result in a less severe result as the low isn't allowed to deepen as much.

   

Edited March 26, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Wivenswold]

Worth watching and it's brilliant that something of interest is happening when most of us will be home and able to watch it unfold (with a lie-in the next morning too. Bonus!)

However, perhaps in the spirit the inevitable non-apocalypse backlash in the "Hurricane Katie" thread in a couple of days, I'll only use the quotes from experts like Captain Shortwave that serve my purpose. Which are "Monday..a....severe storm....70mph....secondary low,.....severe."

It had better happen exactly like that Captain! 

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting gfs 06z follows the 00z in having Mondays low not as deep and further south..

Let's see how tonight and tomorrow runs go..

Certainly looks like a potent squall line of sorts is on this afternoon 

 

[Summer Sun]

Updated warning suggests the strongest winds could be more focussed towards south eastern parts

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1459119600&regionName=uk