South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

[Ben Lewis]

Off to Montreal tomorrow for a couple of weeks, we'll do my best to send the snow and cold this way. 

Praying that this region sees some snow before the mild train arrives at weekend. As I'm sure most on here want snow and not 'whatever will be will be" 

Fingers crossed! 

Edited February 15, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Snoopie42]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

Jesus lighten up. 

Darren is a mild lover a well known for it, I'm sure Darren does his job very well, I never said he didn't, but that doesn't stop him being my least favourite weather forecaster what ever the weather. 

im sure you all are well aware of the situation - I was just simply posting what evening forecasters were broadcasting. Which goes against any of the snow claims for midweek. I wonder if I posted that Darren forecasted a snowmageddon would you have been quick to ponder why I chose to tell the forum. Your reply shouts frustration that midweek is highly probable to be another damp squid as per the rest of this winter. 

Also we don't all share your enthusiasm for 'what ever will be' er no thanks... I see rain practically everyday! 

Fyi.. We've just had a rain shower here, going to take some good going to even get sleet midweek to go for your more favourable knife edge situation. 

Ben

I have PM'd you to stop cluttering the thread, however, that is one big edit since I first saw this post......and the answer is no, see post to @ Surrey immidiately afterwards. I have no weather agenda. Will reply fully in the morning. Have a nice trip to Montreal, and bring some pics back! 

[Kent Blizzard]

50 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Off to Montreal tomorrow for a couple of weeks, we'll do my best to send the snow and cold this way. 

Praying that this region sees some snow before the mild train arrives at weekend. As I'm sure most on here want snow and not 'whatever will be will be" 

Fingers crossed! 

See you back for the start of Spring, when yep you've guessed it....a cold start to March!

[Blessed Weather]

Cold, crisp frosty start after getting down to -2.9C overnight. The little bit of freezing fog earlier has helped give a white coating to everything. The fog has cleared already and with the sun out this is a day for wrapping up and getting out for a walk. 

[Laurence Hill]

10 hours ago, Hearts in Herts said:

Had a surprise shower here while having a puff out of  the window about 20 mins ago . Was definitely sleet with more snow in the heavier bursts. Only lasted about 10 mins tops.  A noticeable temp drop once it stopped. Nice surprise as more than we got yesterday and more than I expected at all today 

Are you sure it wasn't ash from your fag? 

[paget]

Good morning, a beautiful clear crisp morning, got down to -4.5 last night, now risen to -3.9.

even if if is only rain Thursday still nice to have a tiny bit of hope!! (For ever the optimist!) 

[Snoopie42]

Morning all...beautiful morning as @Blessed Weather states above, just wish I had the opportunity today to go for a walk, but alas duties keep me office bound today! I don't want to get hung up on Wednesday / Thursdays events as a little too early to discuss with any confidence, however, just wanted to post this chart from ECM....its showing a little low pressure system across the South coast....if this was to verify I wonder if this may help to spring a few surprises, by way of either creating more moisture and / or possibly helping to 'mix in' the colder uppers? Definitely something to keep an eye on over the next few runs? Have a lovely day all!

[m1chaels]

bbc website is showing al4 will have sleet all wednesday night and snow on thurs morning. What are other models saying? Are we really that close to getting something?

Edited February 16, 2016 by m1chaels

[Snoopie42]

12 minutes ago, paget said:

Good morning, a beautiful clear crisp morning, got down to -4.5 last night, now risen to -3.9.

even if if is only rain Thursday still nice to have a tiny bit of hope!! (For ever the optimist!) 

Absolutely, that's why we are all here! If there is no hope, we aint got nothing!  

[Snoopie42]

15 minutes ago, m1chaels said:

bbc website is showing al4 will have sleet all wednesday night and snow on thurs morning. What are other models saying? Are we really that close to getting something?

Far too early to say which way it will go! Current snow risk charts for reference...to be taken with a pinch of salt for the time being as it still could end up as a full on rain event....still, for now, nice to look at ?

  

 

[Kent Blizzard]

A proper winters morning, a decent frost for a change .

[NO LONGER POSTING]

What a morning! Hard frost all over the roads no idea on temperature frost on the trees everything! 

 

Walked to work today out of my little Village into Town about 2.5 miles and what a gorgeous walk it was! 

[Kent Blizzard]

22 minutes ago, m1chaels said:

bbc website is showing al4 will have sleet all wednesday night and snow on thurs morning. What are other models saying? Are we really that close to getting something?

Not for all it's not. I'll take it with a pinch of grit  after Sunday's pathetic attempt I'll ditch the charts, forget the radar and will purely go by observations and the window.

[afcone]

-3.4degC this morning compared to a forecast of 0C... with the very marginal situation tomorrow, hopefully we'll see a similar overestimate of temperatures by the forecast...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

If it's that where you are I think it had to be around -6 possibly -7 where I am

Edited February 16, 2016 by Surrey

[Kent Blizzard]

I see JH mentioning the potential for the SE Weds/Thurs.

Edited February 16, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[TheMoonman]

Beautiful morning, this morning.  Cold, frosty, sunny.  As @Kent Blizzard said, a proper winters morning

[Hotspur62]

Just taken the dog for her daily walk and stunning. Temp got down to -2.9 this morning(7am) but now risen to +0.2 as at 9.45.That shallow low on South Coast is crucial to SE chances of a rain or snow situation an something Nick Sussex has mentioned on MOD thread. If I have understood it right we need a SE flow from it to bring colder air from continent which increases snow chance (may have got that wrong so sorry if I have). Anyway dont think we will know till this time tomorrow so cant get too worked up about it.

Also things may get interesting early next week if ECM is correct. About time we ( coldies) had a bit of luck in this very mild winter!! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just taken the dog for her daily walk and stunning. Temp got down to -2.9 this morning(7am) but now risen to +0.2 as at 9.45.That shallow low on South Coast is crucial to SE chances of a rain or snow situation an something Nick Sussex has mentioned on MOD thread. If I have understood it right we need a SE flow from it to bring colder air from continent which increases snow chance (may have got that wrong so sorry if I have). Anyway dont think we will know till this time tomorrow so cant get too worked up about it.

Also things may get interesting early next week if ECM is correct. About time we ( coldies) had a bit of luck in this very mild winter!! 

Correct, the current front coming in on the radar is the "event" tomorrow and Thursday.. You ideally want the cold here and now to hold on and actually "dig in" you also want the wind coming in off the Continent because it is currently cold and we need that!

It really is hair thin this event and if it goes the right way people will be buried if it goes the wrong way then we will be washed out.. 

[Kent Blizzard]

27 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just taken the dog for her daily walk and stunning. Temp got down to -2.9 this morning(7am) but now risen to +0.2 as at 9.45.That shallow low on South Coast is crucial to SE chances of a rain or snow situation an something Nick Sussex has mentioned on MOD thread. If I have understood it right we need a SE flow from it to bring colder air from continent which increases snow chance (may have got that wrong so sorry if I have). Anyway dont think we will know till this time tomorrow so cant get too worked up about it.

Also things may get interesting early next week if ECM is correct. About time we ( coldies) had a bit of luck in this very mild winter!! 

Yes correct because the air would be dry off a cold continent therefore snow can fall up to -1c at 850Hpa and thicknesses can be as high as 537dam, a totally different set-up than that from a NE'ly flow which is why it makes me laugh seeing people bang on about needing a -7 below 850Hpa's from this type of set-up, they are totally confusing themselves  and others.

Edited February 16, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[afcone]

Picking up my new car on Saturday.  All good reviews, apart from one comment on Honest John that it 'isn't good on snow'.  If that doesn't guarantee a month of blizzards starting from Sunday, nothing will!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Yes correct because the air would be dry off a cold continent therefore snow can fall up to -1c at 850Hpa and thicknesses can be as high as 537dam 

I remember once having snow fall here at +4 degrees the flakes of snow where as big as rolls of parcel tape within about half an hour I had 3-4cm of snow! Thats proper knife edge!

 

I remember going out init with Friends and noticing that our breath wasn't condensing (steaming) very odd experience! 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

What a nightmare to forecast for us southerns... Here is the little low in question very shallow feature.. Arrows indicate wind flow direction 

Edited February 16, 2016 by Surrey

[frozencanals]

Morning all

Yes...  finally got to use up the last of my very old can of de-icer, minus 2 degrees in Southend this morning.  I had a glorious early morning drive up to Nottingham, a lovely sunny winters day, its a pity I have to spend most of it indoors.

Cheers

FC

 

[paget]

1 hour ago, afcone said:

Picking up my new car on Saturday.  All good reviews, apart from one comment on Honest John that it 'isn't good on snow'.  If that doesn't guarantee a month of blizzards starting from Sunday, nothing will!

Good, it was my fault buying a 4x4 because in 2010 we were snowed in, that put the kibosh on any snow since!!