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Captain Shortwave

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

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So we are into the final month of a winter which hasn't really delivered in the way that we have wanted.

A mobile westerly pattern looks nailed on for the 1st week of February as these charts show.

UW72-21.GIF?02-17   UW96-21.GIF?02-17   UW120-21.GIF?02-17

Wind and rain for us in general mixed with brief drier spells.

Will this continue or will winter have a final swan song which will leave us with anything but a bitter taste in our mouth.

We will have to wait and see. Usual rules apply in here, try to keep the discussion weather related and keep a civil/friendly tone thank you :) 

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Just noticed Euro4 has not updated with its 12z run, I wonder if there are some scratching heads at the Met Office? BBC's last video was around 4pm, talked about dodgy driving conditions around the home counties tomorrow AM and the usual graphics that could mean anything, she said it will be just above freezing. If there is even the sniff of the white stuff in the London area for tomorrows morning rush hour, they certainly don't want to be getting it wrong now do they, even if its going to be marginal?:D

Afternoon temp of 9c for us seems high though, maybe for central London.

 

 

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Mmmm fresh pages too start new debates :drunk-emoji:

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We'll this is sorted of related, had a nice (spring) lamb roast dinner :D....before Daniel's* snow arrives overnight ;)

Looks quite active next week doesn't it, quite volatile at times.

 

 

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Haha, nothing else to debate tonight. New debate tomorrow!:D

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Chilly...

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Temp 5.2 with very little wind comparatively, 16 mph gusts.

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27 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Evening , when is the next cold snap expected, if any?

Hacking the ECMWF has become increasingly difficult lately, apologies for the terrible model output :rofl:

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29 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

Evening , when is the next cold snap expected, if any?

Maybe winter 2016/17 ha

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I'm still thinking Easter, a white Easter 2016!:D

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2 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

We'll this is sorted of related, had a nice (spring) lamb roast dinner :D....before Daniel's* snow arrives overnight ;)

Looks quite active next week doesn't it, quite volatile at times.

 

 

Oh Lord don't be saying that underserved pressure! I disclosed the possibilities that still stands also evident on GFS 18z some leading edge snaw.

image.thumb.gif.d76d71b6dfa4b8da827edfc3

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Thought I would check the 18z see how weekend looks.. If this gets within 70 hours I will begin to slightly worry..

 

Must add, gfs loves to over cook storms 

 

Screenshot_2016-02-02-22-13-27.thumb.png

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I was going to agree @ surrey just had a row in mad thread someone accused me of imbyism. Just cause Scotland had 2 days of 80mph winds 

If it gets through tomorrow's runs then this will be bad

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56 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Thought I would check the 18z see how weekend looks.. If this gets within 70 hours I will begin to slightly worry..

 

Must add, gfs loves to over cook storms 

 

Screenshot_2016-02-02-22-13-27.thumb.png

This what I was thinking earlier when mentioning early hours of Monday, could be a restless night sleep to start the working week.

Like you say GFS does like to over cook and still far away in FI but interesting over the coming days.

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12 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

I was going to agree @ surrey just had a row in mad thread someone accused me of imbyism. Just cause Scotland had 2 days of 80mph winds 

If it gets through tomorrow's runs then this will be bad

Looks like your posts have been removed over there, some up North seem to be getting quite touchy over imbyism & our upcoming storm, don't know why...

 

No Euro4 12z then it seems.

Heres a nice chart for tomorrow morning though, wheres Elvis gone btw?:rofl:

nmm-1-15-0.png

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22 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

This what I was thinking earlier when mentioning early hours of Monday, could be a restless night sleep to start the working week.

Like you say GFS does like to over cook and still far away in FI but interesting over the coming days.

Hi,

5 days away is not a light year away, some of its ensembles are even more severe.  

I do like what the NMM is showing @snowray bonne nuit :) 

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Before I go

The peppery precip currently over Northern Ireland & Central belt is the occlusion moving southeastwards that is what may bring the flakes. 

image.thumb.png.8d80c0edb0d784277d85e803

According to the app this is where we are at 9am expect the precipitation to fall largely as snow London eastwards, it would be nice to see.

image.thumb.png.212391738df7b7e5f4443fe9image.thumb.gif.3568d3a93b54c4972aa93c51

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Ppn arriving too late as I feared 

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06z brings the storm later but more scary :bomb:

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Snowing here, where did that come from. Also storm does look like it could be a little dangerous...

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7 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Before I go

The peppery precip currently over Northern Ireland & Central belt is the occlusion moving southeastwards that is what may bring the flakes. 

image.thumb.png.8d80c0edb0d784277d85e803

According to the app this is where we are at 9am expect the precipitation to fall largely as snow London eastwards, it would be nice to see.

image.thumb.png.212391738df7b7e5f4443fe9image.thumb.gif.3568d3a93b54c4972aa93c51

And here's the precipitation radar at 07.45 this morning. A decent smattering of pink suggesting snow is falling in our Region. And Sparky68 has just posted that snow is falling in MK. Nice one Daniel. :)

56b1b5e887def_RadarWed03Feb07.45.thumb.j

And you're right Surrey - the GFS 06z run has a nasty Low slap bang over us next Tues. (But as we know - at this range it's most unlikely to happen like that!)

56b1b5ffa1f0d_GFS06zforTues09Feb.thumb.p

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9 hours ago, snowray said:

Looks like your posts have been removed over there, some up North seem to be getting quite touchy over imbyism & our upcoming storm, don't know why...

 

No Euro4 12z then it seems.

Heres a nice chart for tomorrow morning though, wheres Elvis gone btw?:rofl:

nmm-1-15-0.png

Elvis is still in the building......... still trying to find those various spots over 100m in Essex!!!

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