Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Polar Maritime]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Meteociel GFS is broken. 

It's a good job we have it here on Net/W then, Or Paul's link below for members without the extra suite  

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfslite;sess=66dc484e1ce0127fc221d3102340a9fd

Edited February 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[KTtom]

That is a very cold depression in the north Atlantic. Ironic that the high to our east which everyone craves, not for the first time could scupper a good oportunity for a decent cold north westerly by preventing its eastward progression. 

 

 

On a seperate note, it can't make its mind up still over the track of Saturdays low and even manages to miss the south coast altogether, however it does indicate snow a possibility in the south west on Sunday as colder uppers dig south.

Edited February 11, 2016 by KTtom

[phil nw.]

Quite deep cold coming south by Monday

although mainly dry for many .Crisp and calm for the start of next week under the ridge very cold with some sharp frosts.

 

[Paul]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

It's a good job we have it here on Net/W then 

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfslite;sess=66dc484e1ce0127fc221d3102340a9fd

For those without extra, it's here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Mucka]

Snowfest for England?

What could possibly go wrong?

 

Also looks like that signal for blocking and possible Easterly within GFS ensembles I spoke of a few days ago wasn't so far fetched but further upgrades required before we  dare hope it come off and have any lasting influence.

The period 17th to 19th looks ripe for widespread snow at the moment but there are lies, damn lies and compute models!

Edited February 11, 2016 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

The cold sticking on this evenings run with a snow risk for Thursday.

Edited February 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[winterof79]

There is the BEEBS disruptive snowfall stalling over central UK

Beat me to it Mucka

Edited February 11, 2016 by winterof79

[SMU]

& this is why the METo have tweeted about snow

UKMO 144

at first glance it looks a bit ropey however England is under around -6/-7c air in situ & with a slight continental drag from the east

The atlantic front straddles the UK & the cold polar air has caught the mild wedge up & mixed it out so as the heights become lower & lower again the rain & snow band becomes even more to snow

....

S

Edited February 11, 2016 by Steve Murr

[snowice]

I must say how good Gfs looks for us coldies but until we are at T120 I'll take it with a pinch of salt?very surprised BBC mentioned chance of widespread snow next week this far out? Maybe just maybe the tables are turning for a cold snow feast for us poor starved coldies! 

Edited February 11, 2016 by snowice

[snowangel32]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& this is why the METo have tweeted about snow

UKMO 144

at first glance it looks a bit ropey however England is under around -6/-7c air in situ & with a slight continental drag from the east

The atlantic front straddles the UK & the cold polar air has caught the mild wedge up & mixed it out so as the heights become lower & lower again the rain & snow band becomes even more to snow

....

S

Looks a bit ropey seems to be the Moto for this Winter, although the cold air will be in place so it's all about the PPN but looking at the weekend the main lows look like missing the UK just leaving us with drizzle, big call from the BBC in my eyes they could be left with egg on there face to far away to call it. 

[Tim Brawn]

4 minutes ago, snowice said:

I must say how good Gfs looks for us coldies but until we are at T120 I'll take it with a pinch of salt?very surprised BBC mentioned chance of widespread snow next week this far out? Maybe just many the tables are turning for a cold snow feast for us poor starved coldies! 

the beeb never tend to mention anything unless they have a good degree of confidence they have been spot on all winter so why would we discount it now , Never ramp it up

[Redwood]

Ive been a lurker all winter, and although a wet n windy affair so far the models have hinted at a cold plunge mid February for quite a while.  Spot on really.  Heres to some disruptive snow!

[Tim Brawn]

Just now, snowangel32 said:

Looks a bit ropey seems to be the Moto for this Winter, although the cold air will be in place so it's all about the PPN but looking at the weekend the main lows look like missing the UK just leaving us with drizzle, big call from the BBC in my eyes they could be left with egg on there face to far away to call it. 

no egg on face to be honest one wrong call compared to loads of the other models

[snowangel32]

5 minutes ago, Tim Brawn said:

no egg on face to be honest one wrong call compared to loads of the other models

Just seems like a big call at still a week away there is still big uncertainty over the eastwards progression of the front. And the express will jump all over this. They are normally so cautious so a big call they must have high confidence in this, we shall see.

[Polar Maritime]

Into the run around the 20th the GFS continues to show the cold holding on in the South, With some sharp frosts in central areas, Over to Nouska..

Edited February 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Just seems like a big call at still a week away there is still big uncertainty over the eastwards progression of the front. And the express will jump all over this. They are normally so cautious so a big call they must have high confidence in this, we shall see.

Never mind what the beeb or models say.....I'm sure the discovery of gravitational waves has already got the Express preparing a claim one will be hitting the UK next week bring six feet of snow with it!

Time and time again since really the beginnig of January the modles have bought us hits of Narnia, only to go off the idea just as we'd got excited about it.  And to be fair the Meto was never really with any of them.   This time, the models were showing the potential for cold without it being necessarily narnia....but now it sounds as if the Meto are on board.   Should be fascinating to watch the evening evolve in terms of the ECM and the GFS 18z .....but I think I'll scream this time if it turns out all the potential has once more disappeared by tomorrow morning!

[snowice]

39 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& this is why the METo have tweeted about snow

UKMO 144

at first glance it looks a bit ropey however England is under around -6/-7c air in situ & with a slight continental drag from the east

The atlantic front straddles the UK & the cold polar air has caught the mild wedge up & mixed it out so as the heights become lower & lower again the rain & snow band becomes even more to snow

....

S

Ukmo 1040HP over Russia moving EAST, low heights over the Mediterranean ,Atlantic very cold 850s?possible link up with the Hp mid atlantic with artic high?I Know it's FI but at least the forum will  be of great interest to all 

Edited February 11, 2016 by snowice

[Weather26]

BBC Weather ‏@bbcweather  50s51 seconds ago

Early indications show potential for disruptive #snow Wed/Thurs next week. Watch this space... Jo

 

Let hope this gets downgraded before the event.

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Ukmo 1040HP over Russia moving EAST, low heights over the Mediterranean ,Atlantic very cold 850s?possible link up with the Hp mid alantic with artic high?I Know it's FI but at least the forum will  be of great interest to all 

144z into the realms of belief

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

BBC Weather ‏@bbcweather  50s51 seconds ago

Early indications show potential for disruptive #snow Wed/Thurs next week. Watch this space... Jo

 

Let hope this gets downgraded before the event.

Ducks for cover..........

[Tim Brawn]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

144z into the realms of belief

far better than 240s that's for sure

[Mair Snaw]

5 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

BBC Weather ‏@bbcweather  50s51 seconds ago

Early indications show potential for disruptive #snow Wed/Thurs next week. Watch this space... Jo

 

Let hope this gets downgraded before the event.

Why on earth would you want it Downgraded.....

 

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

Why on earth would you want it Downgraded.....

 

With you there big snow, after this winter we deserve to be swimming in the stuff. Snowmen as far as the eye can see. And just for once the Americans can read about snow in the UK lol. 

[Polar Maritime]

Some like weather types that others dont, So lets respect that motion within posts and remember there are other threads open for BBC/METO musings.

Thanks.

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

BBC Weather ‏@bbcweather  50s51 seconds ago

Early indications show potential for disruptive #snow Wed/Thurs next week. Watch this space... Jo

 

Let hope this gets downgraded before the event.

Come here often? 

 

Shameless IMBYism, but I'm looking at some potential earlier in the week: