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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No don't say that! lol

I've decided to list my requirements for the rest of February that will stop me from moaning!

I want to see at least 2 snow events for the UK upto T216hrs. Then a northerly from around T288hrs as the MJO rides into town, I want this to then ridge towards Scandi with a chunk of the PV dropping south into Russia and for this to deliver a bitterly cold east/ne flow.

If all these things happen I will stop moaning about the rubbish UK winter!

 

 

 

No don't say that! lol

I've decided to list my requirements for the rest of February that will stop me from moaning!

I want to see at least 2 snow events for the UK upto T216hrs. Then a northerly from around T288hrs as the MJO rides into town, I want this to then ridge towards Scandi with a chunk of the PV dropping south into Russia and for this to deliver a bitterly cold east/ne flow.

If all these things happen I will stop moaning about the rubbish UK winter!

 

 

 

Difficult man to please Nick... glad to see the better runs today, lets hope we get more upgrades and for once this winter the models show us that the weather will deliver for the UK... i dont think i could stomach another let down.......

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Thanks for the charts Brady. I think the Azores displacement will verify especially now that theres solid agreement for that. That's always a good sign especially in view of the winter so far.

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What I like about this is that it's not FI mega charts, that you just know will never evolve. I keep saying this but it is evolution, all runs are based on the start data but the data does not stand still. It is always old data, thus runs verifying is just a pipe dream. This is evolving seemingly out of nowhere it's not close enough to be certain because there will be more changes but it's not FI either. Just for once can we watch something evolve from something poor to something good or great, rather than what we usually see, which is evolving from something great into something rubbish.

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9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No don't say that! lol

I've decided to list my requirements for the rest of February that will stop me from moaning!

I want to see at least 2 snow events for the UK upto T216hrs. Then a northerly from around T288hrs as the MJO rides into town, I want this to then ridge towards Scandi with a chunk of the PV dropping south into Russia and for this to deliver a bitterly cold east/ne flow.

If all these things happen I will stop moaning about the rubbish UK winter!

 

 

 

i love how you get so passionate about the UK snow chances when you live in France Nick. Are you actually in France? your posts are always well worth reading :)

 

Edited by chris55

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2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I'm delighted by the 12z runs from both the gfs and ecm, they breathe new life into this winter for the long suffering coldies and my hope is that we see more wintry upgrades in the next few days...we are seeing winter coming back and it's not distant FI..It's during the week ahead!:D:cold:

72_mslp850uk.png

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120_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

192_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

Note those aren't 'Day 10' charts :D

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Just now, wishingforsnow said:

Note those aren't 'Day 10' charts :D

HAHA yes it's wonderful to post charts showing wintry weather well before T+240 hours!..:cold-emoji::D

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Yes and I now have the waistline that I didn't envisage a few years back, very little will power and too much nice food! I have in the past posted some nice pics of the Pyrenees from my terrace but in view of the UK snow drought I didn't want to add insult to injury this winter!

Yes its strange that I'm more interested in your weather than mine. I'm more chilled out about the weather down here as long as its cold enough for mountain snow. But bear in mind I did suffer decades of frustration in the UK as a snow lover so am always happy to see some good wintry synoptics for the UK.

These are a couple of pics to give you an idea of why I came down here:

IMGP0590.thumb.JPG.6b017277174d41f5646cbIMGP0608.thumb.JPG.734258cefc14859aa9651

 

IMGP0587.JPG

I always say to friends that they must come down in the winter because although the mountains are nice in the summer theres something really magical about them in the winter.

And i thought i had a nice view in the Peak District.... that is a stunning out look Nick

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7 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

And i thought i had a nice view in the Peak District.... that is a stunning out look Nick

Thanks. The range to the far south tops out at around 3,000 metres. There is also the Pic Du Midi De Bigorre which has an observatory on the top which is to my se, they have packages where you can stay overnight and use that. The cable car ride though is not for the fainthearted. That obs helped NASA with the moon landing.

I appreciate I'm very lucky to live here but still miss the UK at times. Anyway I'd better stop my work for the French Tourist Board and get back on topic! lol

 

Edited by nick sussex

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Shame there's not much showing for next weekend on GFS low resolution :wink:

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-2-144.png

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Hi Folks . Beautiful photos ,but this is the model output so please post in another thread Cheers....:)

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34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Yes and I now have the waistline that I didn't envisage a few years back, very little will power and too much nice food! I have in the past posted some nice pics of the Pyrenees from my terrace but in view of the UK snow drought I didn't want to add insult to injury this winter!

Yes its strange that I'm more interested in your weather than mine. I'm more chilled out about the weather down here as long as its cold enough for mountain snow. But bear in mind I did suffer decades of frustration in the UK as a snow lover so am always happy to see some good wintry synoptics for the UK.

These are a couple of pics to give you an idea of why I came down here:

IMGP0590.thumb.JPG.6b017277174d41f5646cbIMGP0608.thumb.JPG.734258cefc14859aa9651

 

IMGP0587.JPG

I always say to friends that they must come down in the winter because although the mountains are nice in the summer theres something really magical about them in the winter.

Stunning Nick , I wouldnt moan either if that view was on my doorstep........very lucky man

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That movement of heights towards N Atlantic I keep going on about - starting to show on NOAA. Watch for ECM ens D10 chart in a few minutes too

814day.03.gif

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8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All....! Where are the Coldies tonight?  Where are the folks who have written Winter off?  Looking at both ecm and gfs its going to be the coldest week of the Winter nationwide aside from a stormy start for the south....Happy Days Coldies....:cold: Apperently  1947 had a very slow start:cold:

you.png

youx.png

snowx.gif

Do you really see major winter this week? Great use of the COLD  emoticons but alas not seeing anything like you or Frosty are.

Average ensembles

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Edited by winterof79

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Do you really see major winter this week? Great use of the COLD  emoticons but alas not seeing anything like you or Frosty are.

You cant deny there is some potential! But that word is often just that....but one day we will get a little luck associated ha!.

Rtavn1201.gif

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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Do you really see major winter this week? Great use of the COLD  emoticons but alas not seeing anything like you or Frosty are.

Average ensembles

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

More below than above average I that chart.

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1 hour ago, Karl. said:

I'm delighted by the 12z runs from both the gfs and ecm, they breathe new life into this winter for the long suffering coldies and my hope is that we see more wintry upgrades in the next few days...we are seeing winter coming back and it's not distant FI..It's during the week ahead!:D:cold:

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

168_thickuk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

192_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

Do you really for see these charts verifying ? 

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Do you really see major winter this week? Great use of the COLD  emoticons but alas not seeing anything like you or Frosty are.

It's the expectation that it could develop further that has got people interested. Great charts that ninety nine times out of a hundred just end up disappearing as they come within a realistic time frame are pointless. At the moment we are seeing the opposite, poor prospects looking better by the day. Of course the most likely outcome is that nothing will come of it. But that's got to change someday and maybe just maybe this is it.

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5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Do you really see major winter this week? Great use of the COLD  emoticons but alas not seeing anything like you or Frosty are.

Average ensembles

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Elements of below average winter Febs  temps in the coming week...:)

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ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

The MJO certainly did gain a fair bit of amplification over the past few days. It's rallied up and ready to go, but keeps checking back inside to make sure it hasn't left anything behind for the long trip across the Pacific!

It's given a bit of a kick to the GWO, perhaps even an Asian MT event in there:

gfsgwo_1.png

Can't be sure just yet though, as I've on a few occasions now seen the most recent observation point get changed the day after, especially with large spikes such as we see currently.

 

I'm chuffed that this MJO/AAM connection appears to be pulling through after so much time spent in anticipation, but holding fire on the back-patting until we actually see the MJO moving steadily through phase 5 as once that happens, the odds on a track toward 8/1 shorten dramatically given the current SST anomaly pattern in the Pacific. Though maybe not quite as much as the odds on Leicester winning the League have since the start of the season. Oh yes he did!

Anyway, I'm glad to see ECMF looking more enthusiastic longer-term with the MJO into phase 7, as that's where the last 32-day run rather lost interest. As much as I'm not yet convinced that a cold late Feb/early March is worth playing for in terms of lying snow IMBY for example, from a theoretical science perspective, a strong move into phases 7/8/1 would be very satisfying indeed.

Edited by Singularity
clarification

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11 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Do you really see major winter this week? Great use of the COLD  emoticons but alas not seeing anything like you or Frosty are.

Average ensembles

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Worth noting that considerable differences in timing and LP development are causing the mean to mask the presence of plenty of dips to -5*C and below which is a loose benchmark for snow being achievable.

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5 hours ago, ukpaul said:

Another misleading chart posted, all this does is give people hopes that are misleading, then they turn round and say 'where's that snow gone we were promised?'. It's bad enough looking for snow without being told something is there when it isn't. What it is showing is some snow primarily over the highest ground, limited in the heaviest bursts.

45-779UK.GIF?07-12  48-779UK.GIF?07-12

Those hi-res charts are all over the place, though. There's snow at sea level in the Irish Sea and even the Atlantic yet rain over hills inland.

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10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Worth noting that considerable differences in timing and LP development are causing the mean to mask the presence of plenty of dips to -5*C and below which is a loose benchmark for snow being achievable.

I have seen the  Ensembles and know how to interpret them but the MET are not looking at it with rose tinted specs as some are on here

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Winds easing on Tuesday with showers moving southwards across the UK. Light winds with prolonged dry, sunny spells for many on Wednesday. Showers and windy weather for Thursday. Chilly nights.

Updated at: 1530 on Sun 7 Feb 2016

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