Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Cloud 10]

A sliding channel low on the ECM 12z AT 120 hrs,with snow on the northern flank.

 

[SMU]

ECM 120 suggesting a snow event for the midlands & a bit further North

also the wedge is nicely shaped filtering in sub -8c air closer to the UK @ 120s

[wishingforsnow]

13 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

The day to day difference for as little as T96 out is remarkable really.......still a lot ot volatility in the models if the ECM is anything to go by

Tonight   v last night

  v  

That looks better right? (An upgrade)

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[shaky]

9 hours ago, Nick L said:

GFS -v- everyone else regarding that potential event on Tuesday. And even the GFS has it the most marginal of marginal of situations, snow accumulations would largely be limited to higher ground.

The evening runs seriously reminds me off january 2013 but just a month later!!!small wedge of heights towards iceland and shortwaves cutting south east!!in these situations southern england/midlands is the place to be if you want snowfall unless things get shoved northwards!!

[SMU]

All of a sudden a pretty decent winters chart-

not quite deep cold at 144 but cold moving SW towards the UK with another slider waiting in the wings ....

s

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

The evening runs seriously reminds me off january 2013 but just a month later!!!small wedge of heights towards iceland and shortwaves cutting south east!!in these situations southern england/midlands is the place to be if you want snowfall unless things get shoved northwards!!

what do you think though shaky and anyone? heights to our north look too weak? surely as runs go on these lows will trend north? or the heights to our north need upgrading

[Cloud 10]

Quite a dramatic upgrade for cold prospects from tonights ECM at day 6 compared with yesterday's run.

 

today..yesterday..

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All of a sudden a pretty decent winters chart-

not quite deep cold at 144 but cold moving SW towards the UK with another slider waiting in the wings ....

s

 

Funny how all these interesting model runs and synoptics have been showing up JUST as most of us have been throwing in the towel in regards to Winter 

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[nick sussex]

The ECM at T72hrs did make more of that shortwave south of Greenland compared to the GFS and UKMO. The UKMO seems very quick with the low in the Atlantic compared to the ECM/GFS.

The ECM would likely have the pattern further south if its wrong with that shortwave at T72hrs, this phasing with that stronger feature does make a difference to how far south that weak ridge near Scandi can get at T96hrs.

 

 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All of a sudden a pretty decent winters chart-

not quite deep cold at 144 but cold moving SW towards the UK with another slider waiting in the wings ....

s

 

Your battery needs charging

[ukpaul]

26 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Have you just discovered the high res charts Paul, lol. Out at day 7 we are looking at the broader picture, the high res will give more details but at this range overall the bigger picture is more important. When looking at where 850s are cold enough for snow etc it is best to wait till T48/72 and look at the likes of the FAX charts or the high res Euro models such as the ARPEGE. 

Ha! Hardly, although the prevalence of lower res charts today was a little bit frustrating. One difference that I think is important, even though details will change, is the level of detail, in a situation like this, as it's very marginal you can see just how marginal on the higher res charts.

I think we all learned gradually, adding charts to the armoury in order to understand more. I recall a few years ago when one particular setup had people scurrying off to Wet Bulb Freezing Level charts, for example, which I will now look at as a matter of course in potential snow setups. As John Holmes always suggests, the forecasting of snow is complex and being able to go beyond what a chart says, to pick apart the 850s, thicknesses, dew points, WBFL is much more interesting than wondering why something didn't happen and how you shouldn't really have believed it in the first place.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the weak wedge of heights to our north is a positive tonight, the ECM and GFS having a similar idea.

ECM

GFS

Both giving sliders with cold air trying to push west/south west towards the UK.

This is a very delicate scenario though but the fact we are seeing these weak heights being factored in now is a good start. That said the high needs to be between Iceland and Norway, too far west and the trough could simply stall over the UK, too far east and the weak high will get swallowed up by the big Russian high and again we end up cool and wet.

[feb1991blizzard]

All aboard the Met Office rethink train!!!

[J10]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well the weak wedge of heights to our north is a positive tonight, the ECM and GFS having a similar idea.

ECM

GFS

Both giving sliders with cold air trying to push west/south west towards the UK.

This is a very delicate scenario though but the fact we are seeing these weak heights being factored in now is a good start. That said the high needs to be between Iceland and Norway, too far west and the trough could simply stall over the UK, too far east and the weak high will get swallowed up by the big Russian high and again we end up cool and wet.

Good Analysis.

I prefer the charts for this coming week,  where at least there is a chance for snow if they came off, than the mild and wet charts where we pretty much know it will be right.

[feb1991blizzard]

Significantly below -5c uppers with a wave curved across the North!!!!!

[wishingforsnow]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well the weak wedge of heights to our north is a positive tonight, the ECM and GFS having a similar idea.

ECM

GFS

Both giving sliders with cold air trying to push west/south west towards the UK.

This is a very delicate scenario though but the fact we are seeing these weak heights being factored in now is a good start. That said the high needs to be between Iceland and Norway, too far west and the trough could simply stall over the UK, too far east and the weak high will get swallowed up by the big Russian high and again we end up cool and wet.

Great set of charts. Over the past few days we have been seeing some of the best potential output since mid January, before that day when all of the models suddenly flipped mild and wet  and since then until very recently the models were once again churning out dismal outputs. 

For once this winter I hope things will actually play out in the UK's favour taking into account the rotten luck we have had in getting just about anything in regards to prolonged cold and settled weather and snow.

Edited February 7, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Cloud 10]

ECM 216 hrs Azores high about to be yanked back west,much as the GFS is advertising.

 

[shaky]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

what do you think though shaky and anyone? heights to our north look too weak? surely as runs go on these lows will trend north? or the heights to our north need upgrading

You dont really nees really strong heights to deflect these lows south east!!i think we need ian fergie to give us more of an insight!!think he more focused on tomorrows storm for now but once that passes through there will be no more excuses lol!!anyway what an ecm run!!its slider galore!!best things about this situation is its not fi and its all happening in the next 4 or 5 days!!

[nick sussex]

Good agreement between the ECM and GFS at T216hrs and T240hrs which is unusual.

These outputs look very much like an MJO response with the Azores high displacing much further to the nw and troughing dropping s/se.

Hopefully it won't be too long between some wintry weather upto T216hrs and then a northerly later as the troughing gets to the east of the UK! Hopefully!

[weirpig]

well well well.  for me one of the most exciting runs of the season, which to fair dosent take alot   lows slidding under from 120 hrs   some of us should get a little of the white stuff if this verifies

[Timmytour]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good agreement between the ECM and GFS at T216hrs and T240hrs which is unusual.

These outputs look very much like an MJO response with the Azores high displacing much further to the nw and troughing dropping s/se.

Hopefully it won't be too long between some wintry weather upto T216hrs and then a northerly later as the troughing gets to the east of the UK! Hopefully!

Cue a different solution popping up on the pub run this evening.....

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Cue a different solution popping up on the pub run this evening.....

No don't say that! lol

I've decided to list my requirements for the rest of February that will stop me from moaning!

I want to see at least 2 snow events for the UK upto T216hrs. Then a northerly from around T288hrs as the MJO rides into town, I want this to then ridge towards Scandi with a chunk of the PV dropping south into Russia and for this to deliver a bitterly cold east/ne flow.

If all these things happen I will stop moaning about the rubbish UK winter!

 

 

 

[bradymk]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good agreement between the ECM and GFS at T216hrs and T240hrs which is unusual.

These outputs look very much like an MJO response with the Azores high displacing much further to the nw and troughing dropping s/se.

Hopefully it won't be too long between some wintry weather upto T216hrs and then a northerly later as the troughing gets to the east of the UK! Hopefully!

Definitely a signal brewing among all these for the azores high moving further NW. Signal in EPS  for the high to our NW today too....we shall see.

EC                                                                    JMA                                                           GEM                                                             GFS                                                              GEFS

 

[Man With Beard]

You northerners will have to forgive us in the south getting so excited about a few marginal snow events and some dodgy cold chances after T144 - it's been so warm on the south coast that the daffodils have already peaked and I noticed today several trees in blossom!!

What's encouraging is that the early signs of change a few days ago continue to be evident, particular a possible flip to -NAO between D10 and D15 (e.g. some GFS ops and ECM extended ensembles) - even if this is just for a few days, many of us coldies will take it for the reasons already given.

Tuesday, maybe just maybe will be one of those marginals that tips towards snow at the last minute.

Finally, do I see the strength of the winds have increased for tomorrow? Maybe even 70mph for inland parts through M4-midlands, maybe worth checking your fences.

[Frosty.]

I'm delighted by the 12z runs from both the gfs and ecm, they breathe new life into this winter for the long suffering coldies and my hope is that we see more wintry upgrades in the next few days...we are seeing winter coming back and it's not distant FI..It's during the week ahead!