Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

UK.

Atlantic weather.

Warm Gulf Stream.

Basics.

Nuff said.

 

To be fair - you are spot on. Hence our prevailing south westerly's and the semi permanent plume of warm uppers over us for the majority of most winters. We all realise that what we are looking for is the outsider (northern blocking) which may only influence us bringing significant prolonged cold about once every 20/30 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

No it hasn't.

The internet soothsayers were wrong with their predictions of a cold 2nd half of Winter and they'll be wrong with predictions of cold March and April.

im not so sure about that , it wouldnt suprise me if we do get a poor march/april.

8 hours ago, PolarWarsaw said:

 

Been on the pop this evening have we? 

Spring starts in April..regardless of whether current trends/models/output or even recent winter history suggest that's different..I and 90% of people on this thread want nothing to do with 'Spring talk' for another 2 months yet! 

think youre the one whos been on the pop dude... lol... spring starts on march 1st (meteorologically), march 21st astronomically, :p and theres no sign at all of anything very wintry in the outlook for the next 2 weeks (going off the anomaly chats) .

but it wouldnt suprise me at all if march or april turns out to be the coldest month since last october, an anticyclone favourably positioned (for cold) could do that easily....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

im not so sure about that , it wouldnt suprise me if we do get a poor march/april.

think youre the one whos been on the pop dude... lol... spring starts on march 1st (meteorologically), march 21st astronomically, :p and theres no sign at all of anything very wintry in the outlook for the next 2 weeks (going off the anomaly chats) .

but it wouldnt suprise me at all if march or april turns out to be the coldest month since last october, an anticyclone favourably positioned (for cold) could do that easily....

An anticyclone? What's that???!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

An anticyclone? What's that???!!!!

a weather system with high barometric pressure at its centre, around which air slowly circulates in a clockwise (northern hemisphere) or anticlockwise (southern hemisphere) direction. Anticyclones are associated with calm, fine weather. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

a weather system with high barometric pressure at its centre, around which air slowly circulates in a clockwise (northern hemisphere) or anticlockwise (southern hemisphere) direction. Anticyclones are associated with calm, fine weather. 

These must be very rare over the British Isles?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

These must be very rare over the British Isles?

Indeed they are, almost as rare as an Ecm T+240 chart verifying!:spiteful::D

240_mslp500.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 18z upper air profiles for the NE states

-36 !!!! Crazy cold - Niagra falls to freeze-

image.thumb.jpg.72cef811a52997531910b280

s

 

Personally I've reached the stage where I've given up looking for anything cold here, where the two rules for decent winter weather are 

1) A lot of things have to go right
2) When they've all gone right, a lot of things have to no go wrong

I think the winter thus far has proved this to be very much the case, and the reason I shall remember it is for the model output of early January which for a few halcyon days offered a tantalising glimpse of winter nirvana

Instead my attention has turned toward two places from Next weekend   New York where my daughter goes.  I've been warning her for some time of how cold it will be.....i believe Joe B came out with something last week alluding to it, which I read on this thread, and SM's post above confirms that the record cold is still on course.  

The other place is Austria where, at the same time, my son will be on his first skiing trip.  Looking at the 850s here things don't look especially good so I hope he's quite high up 

gfs-1-192.png?0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For coldies, it looks like a case of chasing transitory wedges of cold air that manage to squeeze southeast on the back of / between Atlantic low pressure systems.

A long-way off for now, but worth keeping an eye on Thursday/Friday, not only because GFS, UKMO and ECM both show a deep low crossing the UK - but also a vortex of quite low heights - which could produce snow even to lower levels across Ireland and the north and west of the UK. 00z ECM high res showing snow Thursday to lower levels for Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland and the hills of Wales, northern England, Midlands, Cotswolds, Mendips, etc. Too far off to say it will happen but shows the potential for unexpected snowfall.

Wind and rain main concerns for next few days and wind later in the week, snow away from high ground will be too difficult to pinpoint until near the time for the second half of next week.

Monday looking very windy across the south this time with gales or severe gales, as a wave beneath the deep parent low to the north runs across central parts tightening isobars

wind_mon06z.thumb.png.d8c4d6dc58a775c56d

Very strong and active jet across the Atlantic into western Europe for much of the week, thanks to that very deep cold pool over eastern Canada stoking up the jet. Fortunately we are on the cold side of the jet for most of the time, so it won't be particularly mild and in the north and west it will be cold at times, with an increasing of snow later in the week, even perhaps to lower levels. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes absolutely Nick, Plenty of Wintry options for the end of next week from the GFS. Nothing mild on the cards for the UK over the next 8/10 days, Cool to cold for the vast majority with lots of interesting 'volatile' weather to keep tabs on. 

a.pngb.pngc.png

d.pnge.pngf.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Personally I've reached the stage where I've given up looking for anything cold here, where the two rules for decent winter weather are 

1) A lot of things have to go right
2) When they've all gone right, a lot of things have to no go wrong

I think the winter thus far has proved this to be very much the case, and the reason I shall remember it is for the model output of early January which for a few halcyon days offered a tantalising glimpse of winter nirvana

Instead my attention has turned toward two places from Next weekend   New York where my daughter goes.  I've been warning her for some time of how cold it will be.....i believe Joe B came out with something last week alluding to it, which I read on this thread, and SM's post above confirms that the record cold is still on course.  

The other place is Austria where, at the same time, my son will be on his first skiing trip.  Looking at the 850s here things don't look especially good so I hope he's quite high up 

gfs-1-192.png?0

Please don't shoot me down as it's a genuine question, is there any chance a small part of that cold over America etc could make its way here on say a westerly wind? It just looks quite close to me?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Please don't shoot me down as it's a genuine question, is there any chance a small part of that cold over America etc could make its way here on say a westerly wind? It just looks quite close to me?

Afraid not. Pattern looks well set, strong jet, periods of wind and rain, with a chance of fleeting wintryness for Scotland and high ground in the North of England. Nowt in terms of snow for 90% of the population.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Please don't shoot me down as it's a genuine question, is there any chance a small part of that cold over America etc could make its way here on say a westerly wind? It just looks quite close to me?

Nope. Atlantic would warm it up quickly. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Nope. Atlantic would warm it up quickly. 

 

January 1984 gets mentioned a lot as being a particularly cold zonal month with several reloads of very cold zonality bringing frequent snow showers and heavy frontal snow so there are exceptions if the conditions are right.:)

Rrea00219840115.gif

Rrea00119840115.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

don't know who said it's "gonna be warm" - looks pretty damn cold to me come the end of next week

Rtavn16217.gif

gfs-2-132.png?6

lots of "potential" (possibilities a better word lol)

gfs-2-174.png?6

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes absolutely Nick, Plenty of Wintry options for the end of next week from the GFS. Nothing mild on the cards for the UK over the next 8/10 days, Cool to cold for the vast majority with lots of interesting 'volatile' weather to keep tabs on. 

a.pngb.pngc.png

d.pnge.pngf.png

It's a shame the METO don't hold the same views regarding snow later next week.They go for wintry showers.Quite a difference I'd say to yours and Nick's evaluation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, andymusic said:

don't know who said it's "gonna be warm" - looks pretty damn cold to me come the end of next week

Rtavn16217.gif

gfs-2-132.png?6

 

Even bitterly so and very snowy according to that run but the UKMO has now backed down and so has the ECM, the UKMO (in their assessment as far as we can see) think that these runs giving blizzards up North and max temps below freezing are outlier solutions, I'm sure Ian Fergusson will be on to back this up at some point or hopefully tell us that todays assessment has massively changed though I'm not holding my breath for the latter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

It's a shame the METO don't hold the same views regarding snow later next week.They go for wintry showers.Quite a difference I'd say.

The 'charts' look wintry whether it be showers or persistent precipitation, With cool to cold conditions at times especially in the North but not exclusively..  Lots can/will change re detail at this range, And that goes for the Meto to but that's for another thread.. 

Latest from the 6z

a.pngb.pngc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Precisely

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Even bitterly so and very snowy according to that run but the UKMO has now backed down and so has the ECM, the UKMO (in their assessment as far as we can see) think that these runs giving blizzards up North and max temps below freezing are outlier solutions, I'm sure Ian Fergusson will be on to back this up at some point or hopefully tell us that todays assessment has massively changed though I'm not holding my breath for the latter.

Precisely,another garden path output.I think FI should be brought to 120z and thereafter re named NN Land

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Precisely

Precisely,another garden path output.I think FI should be brought to 120z and thereafter re named NN Land

Your always going to get a multitude of solutions around that range in these complex setups but the GEFS have been losing all their more snowier outcomes, so for a massive reverse now at this late stage (referring to late next week only) is very unlikely, this is a very crude way to look at it but on the BBC automated updates (which are as  a result of MO models) have only shown one single time the light snow symbol over my area over about the last god knows how many runs and haven't been much better even further North on higher ground), yes they chop and change but if anything is brewing, you usually see at least once every other run the snow symbol on there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 06z continues its wintry theme for the end of next week(FI) with sleet/snow down to the far south

Friday night on this run Could be the coldest night of winter with Temperatures down to -6 or -7

This before a front arrives from the South West bringing rain which turns to snow as it spreads inland

into the cold air,obviously at this stage things will change(for better or worse)But in the words of Frosty

BANK

C.S

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, andymusic said:

don't know who said it's "gonna be warm" - looks pretty damn cold to me come the end of next week

 

gfs-2-132.png?6

lots of "potential" (possibilities a better word lol)

 

Yes, absolutely agree.  Model fatigue has clearly well and truly set in, but the 6z has upgraded the cold out to 180hrs and shows a potential snow event next Saturday.  It's a straw to clutch, better than nothing.

PS. Can't seem to post charts anymore, any ideas mods?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 8 GFS 06z snow depth anyone?:laugh:

192-780UK.thumb.GIF.990611421c86618cfe1d

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest output from ECMWF-GFS anomaly charts largely supports the 6-10 NOAA from last evening=

Continuation of the strong westerly Atlantic flow into a diffluent type trough over/E of the UK. Their charts show this trough more marked than NOAA but otherwise all 3 are very similar.

my notes in my anomaly monthly file this morning

Sat 6feb

Ec and gfs both very similar and keep the idea of a flow n of west into the uk=ridging slightly and +ve heights wsw of uk along with fairly marked trough into western Europe; strong westerly atlantic flow into diffluent type trough over/e of uk, quite similar  to noaa although troughing on ec-gfs is much sharper.=much as now for the weather, cold at times or at least rather cold with milder interludes as the lows deepen as they approach, mainly, the NW of the UK. Snow down to lower levels briefly but some considerable falls likely for the Scottish hills. Gales maybe severe as lows deepen at the diffluent trough, especially for the NW third of the UK.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By day Ten HP Takes over with Ice days possible over England/Wales

Very cold overnight as well with -10 showing over Scotland

C.S

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes C.S and before then -7/10 uppers shown over the UK by next Friday under a slack Northerly flow.

a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners

    Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners - Blog by Jenny Bell WWW.NETWEATHER.TV In the first in a regular series of gardening articles, Jenny Bell gives her top tips for new gardeners who are maybe taking their first gardening steps during the lockdown.  

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Warm Sunny Days Before A More Unsettled & Cooler Easter Weekend

    High pressure in charge next few days will bring warm sunshine for many, but from Good Friday and through the Easter Weekend it will turn cooler and more unsettled with showers. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...