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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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Great news Steve M thanks for that .I feel a whole lot better. The states are cold,i think we can all read that one.

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2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

No it hasn't.

The internet soothsayers were wrong with their predictions of a cold 2nd half of Winter and they'll be wrong with predictions of cold March and April.

Yep with you on that one.yanks get it as ever

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Great news Steve M thanks for that .I feel a whole lot better. The states are cold,i think we can all read that one.

You can feel the desperation of a long suffering coldie right there:D

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GFS 18z upper air profiles for the NE states

-36 !!!! Crazy cold - Niagra falls to freeze-

image.thumb.jpg.72cef811a52997531910b280

s

 

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10 minutes ago, weirpig said:

You can feel the desperation of a long suffering coldie right there:D

Yes I am drained just like the cold from the pole toward NE USA

gfsnh-1-174.png?18

Steve obviously taking delight in showing us all.

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I tell you what though. All those who say the recent warming will have little effect are wrong. Not for us maybe this time, but every warming I have seen has dramatic effects with cold air pushing out of the pole.It does not take 4 weeks. Look back to recent warmings.

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

So Why are you so sure ? You seem pretty angry with my comment .......Have a look at the statistical evidence :closedeyes:

I'm not angry. I have not used any exclamation marks so how can u say i'm angry?

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2 hours ago, Karl. said:

Whoever these internet soothsayers are, they gave it their best shot, backed up with lots of technical analysis and for that they should be applauded rather than mocked!...and who is to say we won't have a wintry spell in march..it happened 3 years ago..:spiteful::cold:

 

I'm not mocking. But.......

If one is prepared to lay one's cards on the table (so to speak) and be comfortable in openly expressing opinions and, in this case, weather forecasts, on a public forum (worldwide) then be prepared for challenge.

If one cannot handle that then dont publicly express those views/opinions ,or to be exact, weather forecasts.

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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I'm not mocking. But.......

If one is prepared to lay one's cards on the table (so to speak) and be comfortable in openly expressing opinions and, in this case, weather forecasts, on a public forum (worldwide) then be prepared for challenge.

If one cannot handle that then dont publicly express those views/opinions ,or to be exact, weather forecasts.

Not wanting to sound like im having a go here but you have hardly contributed to this thread all winter but now as it seems your not going to get the snow you wanted you have gone on the attack slating many members in here who come in here every winter to give there views and ideas as to what MAY happen... these members are the very life and soul of this thread in the winter and if they were to not lay there cards on the table this thread would not be the place it is every winter.... no this winter has not been ideal but is it the fault of those in this thread?? is it the fault of the lurker?? no its not.... if you had been in here all winter so far and had the guts and ability to give an expression of your opinions then maybe yes you could challenge those that have... i think you need to accept that winter has been poor so far and stop swiping at the very members that keep this place going during the dark days of winter.... sorry mods but just had to get that off my chest...

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1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

Not wanting to sound like im having a go here but you have hardly contributed to this thread all winter but now as it seems your not going to get the snow you wanted you have gone on the attack slating many members in here who come in here every winter to give there views and ideas as to what MAY happen... these members are the very life and soul of this thread in the winter and if they were to not lay there cards on the table this thread would not be the place it is every winter.... no this winter has not been ideal but is it the fault of those in this thread?? is it the fault of the lurker?? no its not.... if you had been in here all winter so far and had the guts and ability to give an expression of your opinions then maybe yes you could challenge those that have... i think you need to accept that winter has been poor so far and stop swiping at the very members that keep this place going during the dark days of winter.... sorry mods but just had to get that off my chest...

I dont give a flying flock about snow or not.

It's great reading about the background science to our weather patterns but forecasting a UK Winter......now that's a challenge.

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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I dont give a flying flock about snow or not.

It's great reading about the background science to our weather patterns but forecasting a UK Winter......now that's a challenge.

How would you know how much of a challenge it is?? have you ever done it?? yet your very quick enough to come in here tonight and attack those that have the guts and ability to do so... they may have been wrong in there predictions but at least they were prepared to have a go and say what they saw... nobody can deny that this winter has been hard going and frustrating because it has... i just dont understand why you felt the need to come in here tonight and be the way you have....

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38 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes I am drained just like the cold from the pole toward NE USA

gfsnh-1-174.png?18

Steve obviously taking delight in showing us all.

It's like a dagger through the heart of UK coldies, makes me sick with envy that parts of north America look like going into the freezer again..:diablo:

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Our turn will come again

Yeah  i remember the engand football team saying that in 1970:)

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11 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

How would you know how much of a challenge it is?? have you ever done it?? yet your very quick enough to come in here tonight and attack those that have the guts and ability to do so... they may have been wrong in there predictions but at least they were prepared to have a go and say what they saw... nobody can deny that this winter has been hard going and frustrating because it has... i just dont understand why you felt the need to come in here tonight and be the way you have....

UK.

Atlantic weather.

Warm Gulf Stream.

Basics.

Nuff said.

 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Yeah  i remember the engand football team saying that in 1970:)

I didn't say in the next 4 years did I :D

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

UK.

Atlantic weather.

Warm Gulf Stream.

Basics.

Nuff said.

 

We need the GS to shut lol

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

UK.

Atlantic weather.

Warm Gulf Stream.

Basics.

Nuff said.

 

 

Been on the pop this evening have we? 

Spring starts in April..regardless of whether current trends/models/output or even recent winter history suggest that's different..I and 90% of people on this thread want nothing to do with 'Spring talk' for another 2 months yet! 

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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

UK.

Atlantic weather.

Warm Gulf Stream.

Basics.

Nuff said.

 

oh right yes of course its that easy..... Somebody call Exeter tell them they are all being made redundant as they are no longer needed due to Bristle Boy working out the UK weather for the next century.... :drunk-emoji::drunk-emoji::drunk-emoji::yahoo:

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OK chaps we have been cutting everyone some slack as it's been quieter in here but  some of the recent posts are pushing it.

Let's get back to some model discussion and friendly posting please.

Thanks all.:) 

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1 hour ago, Karl. said:

It's like a dagger through the heart of UK coldies, makes me sick with envy that parts of north America look like going into the freezer again..:diablo:

I know it's small consolation but I have to visit Wisconsin regularly in Winter (my head office is there) and it often gets down to these kind of crazy temperatures.  It's actually not much fun as you can't spend any significant time outside.   It is cool that the Mississippi freezes in the town where I visit (you can drive out cut a hole and go ice fishing).  But in pretty much writes off outdoors as a place to be.  The weather for frolicking and building snowmen it is not.

Still the models show the strat dominating the trop forcings.  Some signs of change going forward but nothing that indicates persistent cold at the moment.  As a few posters have mentioned the synoptics actually look good at face value until you realise there's no cold near by to tap into.

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I was in Oslo all week and although the 850s were -10c midweek it was still +2-3c by day only falling to -2c by night. Minimal amounts of snow, some bits in the suburbs. Even out at the airport dregs of a couple of inches. No surface cold to tap into from anywhere. Time to give up I think. 

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1 hour ago, Trom said:

I know it's small consolation but I have to visit Wisconsin regularly in Winter (my head office is there) and it often gets down to these kind of crazy temperatures.  It's actually not much fun as you can't spend any significant time outside.   It is cool that the Mississippi freezes in the town where I visit (you can drive out cut a hole and go ice fishing).  But in pretty much writes off outdoors as a place to be.  The weather for frolicking and building snowmen it is not.

Still the models show the strat dominating the trop forcings.  Some signs of change going forward but nothing that indicates persistent cold at the moment.  As a few posters have mentioned the synoptics actually look good at face value until you realise there's no cold near by to tap into.

I was in Calgary this time last year - arrived in -17c then two days later it got upto +13c, before plunging back down to -12c. In fact experienced a 20c drop in the space of 8 hours. But the snowfall there is pointless. It rarely accumulates to any depth, and -17c feels nothing like it would it the UK. The rain shadow kills off the chance of any decent snowfall generally. You would expect snow to settle at those low temperatures but it doesn't. 

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2 hours ago, Trom said:

I know it's small consolation but I have to visit Wisconsin regularly in Winter (my head office is there) and it often gets down to these kind of crazy temperatures.  It's actually not much fun as you can't spend any significant time outside.   It is cool that the Mississippi freezes in the town where I visit (you can drive out cut a hole and go ice fishing).  But in pretty much writes off outdoors as a place to be.  The weather for frolicking and building snowmen it is not.

Still the models show the strat dominating the trop forcings.  Some signs of change going forward but nothing that indicates persistent cold at the moment.  As a few posters have mentioned the synoptics actually look good at face value until you realise there's no cold near by to tap into.

 

The Delaware River, 2007. Wow.

image.jpeg

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Admittedly there's not much to report as the models show the same sort of stuff. Frustrations are building and it's evident from the strange posts tonight. People need to be patient, our time will come :)

I think, for me, posting on this thread has become less of a joy over the last 5 years and it's time to hang my coat up. Those who do persevere, keep up the good work and I'm sure to read more expert analysis in the coming weeks/months. 

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