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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

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Shannon entropy is key here. February can deliver epic snowfall, not that the models are showing this, but the atmosphere is so volatile at the moment anything is possible..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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I think everyone needs to be a bit patient with respect to February as there is nothing on the horizon to flip the models to sustained cold in the next 2 weeks. However if you look beyond that then the MJO is just starting to click into gear and by month end the ECM ensembles have the MJO in phases 7/8. This is outside the range of our typical models so they are not going to be picking up the NH trop reaction to this yet but the composite for phase 8 looks is below. Not bad hey?

I reckon a week/10 days down the line we might start to see some more favourable modelling for a more sustained cold outbreak end of Feb into early March.

I thought Fergie's post this morning re: Glosea was very interesting, we'll just have to wait to see how it all pans out but do not give up just yet...    

EMON_phase_51m_small.gif

FebENMJOphase8gt1500mb.gif

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Lots of towels being chucked in the moaning thread but the Gfs 6z shows a higher chance of snow, at least for the north of the uk in FI...Better than the 00z:clap:

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo (1).png

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ukmintemp.png

I see nothing of note apart from a few transient PM shots, which is only good for high ground up north!

Edited by Polar Maritime
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5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I see nothing of note apart from a few transient PM shots, which is only good for high ground up north!

Which is exactly what Frosty's charts/post depicts.

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More posts have had to be hidden, Again i ask. . Can we keep to polite discussion around the Model outputs in here. 

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hi all this high pressure could push north later on with cold anticyclonic weather pattern later on im not throwing in the towel in yet I live in London and I have seen snow on the ground with cold easterlys in april still got time for a big dumping ..:cold:

h500slp.png

Edited by london and south east kent
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At least changes in the weather pattern during February will mean a weakened PV and jetstream meaning eventually the depressions won't be firing at us constantly from the Atlantic as they have done for most of this winter. This should in theory provide a greater chance of sustained blocked drier conditions even if its not particularly cold - I think this is what Ian F was alluding to in his update where 'a mobile southwesterly flow may resume temporarily,' the state of the atmosphere by then should ensure that this time it won't be a prolonged weather pattern should it return as opposed to further back during winter.

I know this winter is frustrating for coldies but many of us are probably looking forward to the pattern change from constant stormy wet windy conditions we have endured for months finally arriving. And the days are getting longer :)

Edited by wishingforsnow

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There is talk of snow this coming weekend across the northern half of the UK from the latest met office update, especially later on Saturday and through Sunday and it could occur on lower ground as well as hills so it's one to watch...The Gfs 6z also shows some snow for the north during the timeframe in question both from showers and more organised ppn from frontal systems working NE across northern England and particularly for Scotland. Looking further ahead it looks like staying generally unsettled with some large variations in temperatures as Atlantic systems push through bringing milder, wet and windy spells interspersed with much brighter but colder and showery conditions with snow in places and night frosts.:)

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prectypeuktopo (3).png

prectypeuktopo (4).png

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More off topic posts have been hidden.

Please direct any frustrations with the Winter so far to the moans and banter thread.They serve no useful purpose in here and they just clutter the thread up.

Thanks all.  

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Dare I post this....

GFS 12Z Shows wintry weather as far south as the South Midlands at T162 (FI) Which is better than the GFS06Z Showed

C.S

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GFS finally smelling the coffee?

We should hopefully see gradual improvements over coming runs on this theme.

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

 

Should be some nice ensemble members this evening and day 9/10 on ECM will hopefully progress toward building an Atlantic ridge.

Edited by Mucka
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Yes a more Southerly track the the Jet on this evenings run for the 8th, With cooler air spilling in from the N/W, Pushing the snow-line/cooler air a touch further South. 

a.pngb.pnga.png

 

Also a possibility of some severe weather across England next weekend.

a.pngb.pnga.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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GEM gains the WAA toward Greenland but loses the upstream amplification

gemnh-0-204.png?12

 

Even though we aren't seeing the charts we want as yet developments do signal some WAA toward Greenland around day 8 which could well link with arctic heights and renewed WAA in the Atlantic sector through day 9 and 10.

I think we will see this modeled in some of the ensembles and GFS Op is ever so slowly creeping toward a slower pattern even though the Op is still defiantly zonal.

 

Edited by Mucka
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Northerly at the end of the run,which takes us to 15 Febuary,now then did Ian F not mention this a few days ago as a possibility?

C.S

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4 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Northerly at the end of the run,which takes us to 15 Febuary,now then did Ian F not mention this a few days ago as a possibility?

C.S

No northerly on 12z.

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27 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS finally smelling the coffee?

We should hopefully see gradual improvements over coming runs on this theme.

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

 

Should be some nice ensemble members this evening and day 9/10 on ECM will hopefully progress toward building an Atlantic ridge.

Its always seem to be days 8-10 though from what i read on here, the reality is unfortunately there is no real prospects of snow opportunities in the outputs and unfortunately also with a strengthening sun even upper air temps of -5 would deliver to bring much in the way of cold weather, warm SST's don't help. 

There is more chance of another deep area of low pressure hitting the UK than any snowfall at the moment. 

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25 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM gains the WAA toward Greenland but loses the upstream amplification

gemnh-0-204.png?12

 

Even though we aren't seeing the charts we want as yet developments do signal some WAA toward Greenland around day 8 which could well link with arctic heights and renewed WAA in the Atlantic sector through day 9 and 

 

I'm struggling to see any WAA at 500 hpa on that chart Mucka. Indeed, it is the lack of WAA which allows the next bowl shaped low to come barrelling threw. 

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just a thought....but  today it appears the Karymsky volcano in Russian Kamchatka's eastern volcanic zone spewed ash up to 3km into the air, according to the Regional Emergencies Ministry. That's not the first bit of volcanic activity in that region this winter.

It is possible such eruptions have a major direct on what is thereafter modelled.  Is there any correlation between all the models seeming to suddenly change tack within a relatively short time-frame from showing one thing to another, (obviously within a small region but evolving to have bigger consequences down the line)  and things such as volcanic explosions?  

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This is the most galling chart you will see today!

temp_eur2.png

 

Deep cold only in northern Scandinavia and way out east in Siberia.

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The ens have been showing a colder trend in the second week and the GFS run is still indicating the southward movement of the jet with low pressure digging se into Europe.

Still quite cyclonic and unsettled but the cold being felt further south after this week if that trend continues.Too early for detail re.any widespread snow but i would't write it off at this stage.With the lows crossing the Atlantic on a more southerly track we may get a surprise wintery event with the cold air more dominant around the UK by then.

Of course if we see a little more Atlantic ridging then this would greatly enhance any Arctic feed south.

Edited by phil nw.
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In the reliable, it is a case of depression, brief ridge, depression, brief ridge and so on and so on. :whistling:

After the usual weekend wobbles in the models, according to the GFS 12z some transient back-edge snow opportunities might yet turn up even for parts of lowland England in the coming fortnight. Early hours of the 3rd February could boast a wintry surprise for a small minority of us, plus I'd put a brief watch on things around the 8th and 9th February as well. Deep entrenched prolonged cold still not in sight but mid-February can and often does deliver even down south at times, despite these globally warmer times. I remain convinced that February will deliver what coldies want for more of the population than the rest of Winter has so far. Keep an eye on those Euro heights and Arctic heights, one of which we want to see dissipate the other we want to see build to unimaginable heights. An intriguing week of model watching coming up! :friends:

 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

This is the most galling chart you will see today!

temp_eur2.png

 

Deep cold only in northern Scandinavia and way out east in Siberia.

look how mild it is in europe,and not that cold in far  E europe or  Scandi,ive seen temps below -40 at this time of year there,before

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34 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

unfortunately also with a strengthening sun even upper air temps of -5 would deliver to bring much in the way of cold weather, warm SST's don't help. 

March 2013 saw twenty foot blizzards in parts and that Spring took an age to hit even respectable Temperatures, frosts occurring in almost June back then. So no, I don't buy that analogy but fair enough if you believe in such things. Every year is different though and who knows what might happen yet. :good:

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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41 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

March 2013 saw twenty foot blizzards in parts and that Spring took an age to hit even respectable Temperatures, frosts occurring in almost June then. So no, I don't buy that analogy but fair enough if you believe in such things. Every year is different though and who knows what might happen yet. :good:

Of course March can be cold - no-one is denying that.  However with Europe so mild now (see chart above), it would require some rapid deep cold-pooling to establish itself during February as the cold has been wiped out across Europe.  I believe March 2013 followed a cold winter in the UK and Europe (can someone confirm please?) - this is obviously not the case this year.  Not saying March 2016 will not be cold but the barriers to achieve that are so much higher...

Edited by mulzy

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