Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All, So the clock is ticking away for Winter and yet the models are now showing us potentially the coldest spell of the Winter so far, perhaps the potential for some disruptive snowfall in the north and some snow even further south. The outlook looks much colder than mild in the outlook.....

[terrier]

Got to admit I'm in the nick Sussex camp this evening. Pretty underwhelming output from the ecm and gfs again. No Scandinavia high. Or any form of blocking over Greenland. Yes Scotland and the high peaks may do ok from what's been shown in the output. But away from there we are looking a cold rain with the odd frost and sleet mix thrown in. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016012912/gem-0-120.png?12

 

GEM wants the runner too 

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Good to see that all is on schedule as per the MetO's three-monthly forecast. I have a high degree of confidence as to cold weather affecting the whole of the UK, come mid/late-Feb!

[Essex snowman]

Don't think terrier nick Sussex was implying the way your putting it got all of Feb to go and lots of twists and turns to early to get downhearted after reading your posts I think I need a drink 

[chris55]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2016012912/gem-0-120.png?12

 

GEM wants the runner too 

 

BFTP

Definitely one to watch BFTP. Very marginal, but with a bit of luck....who knows !

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Got to admit I'm in the nick Sussex camp this evening. Pretty underwhelming output from the ecm and gfs again. No Scandinavia high. Or any form of blocking over Greenland. Yes Scotland and the high peaks may do ok from what's been shown in the output. But away from there we are looking a cold rain with the odd frost and sleet mix thrown in.

I wish I could be less miserable! If we were in December then theres plenty of time to play with but we'll soon be into February. At the moment February does look like being more interesting which of course wouldn't be difficult! The issue is the lack of blocking that can direct some much colder air into the UK.

At least the Euro high looks like it will leave the scene and the jet tracking more nw/se is good so I don't want to come across as being overly pessimistic.

 

[Banbury]

10 minutes ago, terrier said:

Got to admit I'm in the nick Sussex camp this evening. Pretty underwhelming output from the ecm and gfs again. No Scandinavia high. Or any form of blocking over Greenland. Yes Scotland and the high peaks may do ok from what's been shown in the output. But away from there we are looking a cold rain with the odd frost and sleet mix thrown in. 

It's January 29th , any change wasn't really expected until mid month

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Good to see that all is on schedule as per the MetO's three-monthly forecast. I have a high degree of confidence as to cold weather affecting the whole of the UK, come mid/late-Feb!

Second half of Feb to be average to Mild......Well you have tempted providence so it will be mild

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, terrier said:

Got to admit I'm in the nick Sussex camp this evening. Pretty underwhelming output from the ecm and gfs again. No Scandinavia high. Or any form of blocking over Greenland. Yes Scotland and the high peaks may do ok from what's been shown in the output. But away from there we are looking a cold rain with the odd frost and sleet mix thrown in. 

West Yorkshire....hmmm, speak to us in a week and let us know what it's like up there out of interest

 

BFTP

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Second half of Feb to be average to Mild......Well you have tempted providence so it will be mild

BFTP

You've sort of got me there, Fred. If only we lived in Camelot - where there's a full-moon every night!

[Banbury]

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

Give it time

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You've sort of got me there, Fred. If only we lived in Camelot - where there's a full-moon every night!

Always Pete......in Redhill   Having said that it was so bright the other night it was like daylight....kept me awake from 3 am.  Sorry off topic but anyone else notice how 'bright' it was?

 

BFTP

Edited January 29, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[kingdogleash]

15 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Oh well at least things are trending cooler now,and if GP's scud comes to fruition in the not to distant future could be some fun and games!

Model watching these last couple of years have been as frustrating as playing the game pickup sticks with only the use of your ar*e cheeks being allowed!

(i should imagine!)

I hope that dog doesn't need a pony and trap!!

"scud" I thought it was a torpedo! Both are dumb missiles, but I prefer a torpedo to a scud any day!

[Weather Observer]

I can put up with cold zonal in December knowing that the rest of Winter could deliver. When it comes to late January and with no real cold to tap into we will be cutting if fine. But I wouldn't be here now if I still  didn't think we could salvage something from the wreckage of this Winter.

All I ask for is for on one evening in February after a day of snow showers, to see that last lonely flake fall and with the setting sun firing the retreating snow cloud know that the frost will keep all safe until the morning.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok back to the 'Models please thanks.

[johnholmes]

The NOAA anomaly charts show how the colder spell is going to develop, cannot show links but easy enough to find. If desperate look for my posts 2 weeks ago for the links!

All being well back to normal posts from Sunday

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by johnholmes

[bluearmy]

Looks like the period 10/12 feb is where we could have some real fun. Upper trough edges just east and it seems we will see some weak ridging Iceland area to follow. That should encourage the path of the next system to be more se (negatively tilted) and into already cold air. 

[Bullseye]

US mets getting really excited tonight about the pattern in week 2 by EPS/GEFS, showing some brutal cold. The question whether UK/Europe goes the same way. One other thing is up here we have had gale force winds htting around 65mph this morning and now warnings out for snow! Who said this week's weather was boring

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

US mets getting really excited tonight about the pattern in week 2 by EPS/GEFS, showing some brutal cold. The question whether UK/Europe goes the same way. One other thing is up here we have had gale force winds htting around 65mph this morning and now warnings out for snow! Who said this week's weather was boring

No I suspect we will suddenly hit a very mild pattern when that happens, 

BFTP

Edited January 29, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowman.]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No I suspect we will suddenly hit a very mild pattern when that happens, 

BFTP

Depends on far how east and south. Would promote some Atlantic ridging I feel.

Edited January 29, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Depends on how east and south. Would promote some Atlantic ridging I feel.

Just counting our luck when US gets extreme cold....AND BEING DEVIL'S ADVOCATE

 

Now looking at UKMO I think t168/t192 would be setting up for some very impactual weather crossing heart of UK. That LP is moving WNW to ESE 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

and follows the ECM....looking good

 

BFTP

Edited January 29, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[lukemc]

BFTP by impactful weather do you mean snow potential? I suppose it could mean wind but that low does not look that deep to me so maybe you were talking about snow potential.  Things do seem to be getting colder what do you think do you think we are in with a good chance of a good snow event in the next 2 weeks hopefully the SSW will help.

 

Luke 

[gottolovethisweather]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Well the ECM delivers some interesting synoptics but even at T216hrs with what looks like a northerly flow the 850's are not that cold.

With low heights this might mitigate this somewhat but until we see some blocking that's not boxed in over the Arctic then its just cooler and wetter rather than colder and snowier.

Looks okay for hills and mountains, but doesn't pass the crunchy snow and frost test for most of the UK and so therefore it scores 4/10.

Who would have thought at the start of December that we would have sat through so far roughly 240 GFS outputs, 120 ECM and 120 UKMO outputs and whats actually delivered in terms of colder weather is about 7 days with a few hours of slush to show for it for most, a few frosty nights and some poor BBC weather presenter stuck on the North York Moors trying to big up a snowier blip amongst the utter tripe that's masquerading as winter 2015/16.

Ghastly! Theres been more snow in the Middle East and the Greek Islands. For this winter to save itself we need some proper blocking to stop this relentless succession of lows.

And we have now about 4 weeks to save this winter from being a complete write off, that goes down to around 3 weeks when you factor in the solid agreement upto T240hrs.

 

Mind you Nick, even in generally tropical feeling Central Southern England this winter, I had an ice day on the 19th and went damn close again on the 20th January. I did see some transient snowflakes too so something to cherish amongst the dreary stuff.

 

More importantly, moving onto my thoughts for the future. I have always been relatively optimistic that February will deliver some cold and snowfalls for a greater part of the UK and who knows perhaps for SW France too. Even last weekend, my mind was set upon the first few days of February becoming the start of a new period of unsettled wintry weather for increasingly longer periods, broadly atypical of NW'ly airflows. Granted, no deep cold in sight for the reliable but this remains a reasonable option longer-term providing a deep freeze hits the nearby continent and that darn Euro High dissipates. So, to sum things up, a NW/SE split with regards to wintry precipitation chances for the forseeable but with the odd few surprises along the way. Some oddities this weekend for a starter with thunder, lightning, hail, gales, sleet and snow and even a bit of frost thrown in. Nice to know, the UK weather isn't too boring for long. 

Edited January 29, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Ali1977]

GFS, at to be honest most charts around day 8-9 just keep getting better,  somethings brewing. 

The angle of the Arctic high on this run could make this a better run, with better ridgeing !!

Edited January 29, 2016 by Ali1977