Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Recommended Posts

Having viewed the latest longer-range Youtube video from Weatherweb (video embedded below), in which the CFS anomaly output was apparently swaying that company's thoughts regarding February's weather towards a flatter, zonal pattern), I posted the link (complete with an attempt at model-related discussion) in the relevant Model Output thread.  More than one poster remarked that, in their opinion, this model was generally inaccurate and not to be trusted.  I know that several senior posters use anomalies as a means of smoothing-out inter-run variations, so I was wondering if the CFS anomaly output is produced in a similar manner to others, and why it appears to be perceived as less useful?

 

Thanks.:)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally I don't think the CFS is as poor as some suggest. Like any model it has it's up and downs, and when it comes to long range modelling it's always going to be trickier. But I think it gets a bit more of a kicking than it deserves because some people view the raw output or the daily stuff and take what it's showing 2 months down the line as gospel. In reality the outputs need averaging over many days and runs (the NCEP only show an average of the last 7 days runs), that smooths it out and gives a much better indication of what may happen.

No model is infallible, and long range modelling is never going to be 100% regardless of whether it's the CFS or whatever else, but it's a useful tool to use in the mix when looking at longer range. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Paul said:

Personally I don't think the CFS is as poor as some suggest. Like any model it has it's up and downs, and when it comes to long range modelling it's always going to be trickier. But I think it gets a bit more of a kicking than it deserves because some people view the raw output or the daily stuff and take what it's showing 2 months down the line as gospel. In reality the outputs need averaging over many days and runs (the NCEP only show an average of the last 7 days runs), that smooths it out and gives a much better indication of what may happen.

No model is infallible, and long range modelling is never going to be 100% regardless of whether it's the CFS or whatever else, but it's a useful tool to use in the mix when looking at longer range. 

Thanks Paul.  That seems reasonable.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Warm run-up to Easter but a destabilising low means sunshine and showers at the weekend

    High pressure is keeping our weather settled at the moment, and in the main it'll stay that way until the end of the week. But with low pressure helping to destabilise the atmosphere this weekend, the sunshine will be joined by some heavy showers. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners

    Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners - Blog by Jenny Bell WWW.NETWEATHER.TV In the first in a regular series of gardening articles, Jenny Bell gives her top tips for new gardeners who are maybe taking their first gardening steps during the lockdown.  

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...