North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

[SP1986]

12 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Philip Avery going for snow only above 200m tomorrow. 

Seems believable. I think were used to this by now.

[WillinGlossop]

Philip avery said just now on bbc news 24 forecast.... 2-5cm at 200m with possibility of snow being knee deep with risk of 20cm or more in places above 200m in peak district, pennines....Amber warning later? 

Edited March 3, 2016 by WillinGlossop

[SP1986]

it sounds quite significant, and long lasting event, for higher areas, meanwhile, an absolute washout for areas below 150-200m

 

[cheshire snow]

For low ground very grim reading just is not cold enough

DP around 0 and 850s of -5 just dont do it this time of

Year,i think the warning is very generous for 1-2cm for

Low ground,and probably just in place just in case.

Edit Willin

Knee deep snow would be a red warning,that wont be from

Accumalating snow it will be from drifting,but i agree 20cm

A good possibility 80% of the region will be thinking if only

C.S

[ChezWeather]

7 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Do you guys think my area is going to get the 20cm as per NMM or do you prefer the euro 4 solution pushing it to my north. ???

Id guess that Buxton is in for a good chance of snow tonight, the euro 4 seems to be the only model pushing it way further North

Here in Chesterfield, its a case of so close, yet so far away (300m lower)

 

[Snow free zone]

Pretty much same old same old stuff imo.  Areas inland and with altitude look like doing well for snow out of this. For others intensity of the ppn will come into play, if you are under some of the heavier bursts wet snow is possible.  

We had snow in Preston yesterday morning periodically in the heavier areas of ppn, and there was lying snow up towards the Lancaster area again after the heavier stuff had passed through with sleet on the back edge.  

Hopefully those that haven't seen any snow yet this winter will see some overnight. 

 

 

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

NMM 06Z has corrected to reflect this

[SP1986]

if you look at the mountain forecasts, they suggest the overnight period in large will see snowline around 400m, anywhere above 400m will see heavy snow, then as the day goes on tomorrow, the snowline will pull down to 200m, for heavy snow, before moving away. I think based on this; 0-100m will see rain, with perhaps some sleetiness at the highest end of this in favourable areas. 100-150m will see rain/sleet, with bits of snow mixed in towards 150m. 150m will see sleety snow, with wet snow occurring from around 170m upwards. From around 230m I suspect this snow will settle and above 300m there could be significant snow and settling.

 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

NMM 06Z has corrected to reflect this

Reflect what?

[SP1986]

Snowdon is going to be buried. 

[Carl46Wrexham]

This does not look good for low lying areas. The rain yesterday and from last nights soggy Cheshire gap streamer has left flooded fields behind (yet again).

Seriously fed up of these cold rain events now.

[frosty ground]

15 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

if you look at the mountain forecasts, they suggest the overnight period in large will see snowline around 400m, anywhere above 400m will see heavy snow, then as the day goes on tomorrow, the snowline will pull down to 200m, for heavy snow, before moving away. I think based on this; 0-100m will see rain, with perhaps some sleetiness at the highest end of this in favourable areas. 100-150m will see rain/sleet, with bits of snow mixed in towards 150m. 150m will see sleety snow, with wet snow occurring from around 170m upwards. From around 230m I suspect this snow will settle and above 300m there could be significant snow and settling.

 

Times like this i'm glad I live 306m above sea level

[Polar Maritime]

16 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Snowdon is going to be buried. 

Yes i had planned for an overnight scramble up Crib Goch Fri night, But im not swimming through meters of snow.. The weekend will be busy (what with the snow) and the usual incompetent crowds coursing problems giving a busy one for the the rescue teams.. Im keeping well clear! 

Edited March 3, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[frosty ground]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw88zh40#?fcTime=1457049600

As Automated Forecast go... I've seen worse 

[SP1986]

If we look at the warning and analyse it closely, you get the sense that actually, the Met-office may well be concerned that snow could cause disruption to low levels too. The first wording they use is "Not currently expected to be disruptive at low level areas in most places".. this suggests actually yes there is a risk of heavy significant snow even down to low levels but it's too early to say, as it may change.. if they issue an amber warning, they may also alter the yellow warning for low areas, or perhaps, even include some low lying areas in the amber warning as they say "in some places" too, perhaps meaning..some low levels areas could see significant snow.. though at this current time, it is not expected.

The warning also says that lying snow could occur almost anywhere even at low levels, though here, amounts will be fairly small at 1-2cm. They also say it could be localised - which ties in well with the previous statement. 

However they do say that the snowline will retreat during the day, as it will get milder - and places like Mid-Wales and West Midlands have been removed off the warning, so it is going to be further north than expected.

 

 

[Miamay]

Its forcast rain for Liverpool but still in the warnings for snow. 

[dodge]

It will be touch and go for me at 180m - It will start off as rain no doubt, but there could be the great joy of seeing some slushy stuff before it fizzles out later tomorrow.  Higher ground will fare better, if the intensity is there, I'm sure there will be a sweet spot up in the moors.  If they get a decent wi-fi signal they might even let us know about it.

Edited March 3, 2016 by dodgeredee

[Darren Bown]

18 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Shades of Boxing Day 2014

Im not sure about that, although it seems similar, the forecasts always said only high ground, and even here we got 2cm from that event from very heavy snow for 3 hours.

[Day 10]

I know I said my goodbyes 10 days ago and see you all next winter, but the minute I did the weather decided to give winter one last go and the thread is busy again!

I have been looking closely at this will it won't it snow event. Snow above 200m is a given I'd say, I'd be pretty excited if I lived up a hill.

Having said this, as you can see below the front comes in as all rain to start with but as this starts to pivot it increasingly turns to sleet and snow from about 1am. Even some lower levels should see some falling wet snow at times.

The dewpoints for the south of the region (not the only thing required I know) are actually better than further north for once! So maybe the areas that have largely missed out such as Liverpool, Wirral, Cheshire might actually see at least some wet snow.

Anyway to sum up: All rain, followed by sleet, followed by wet snow at times with proper snow above 200m. Good luck to you all!!!

[Chris.R]

As I said yesterday, I am actually more optimistic about this event. The thing we should have this time, something lacking in recent events is a period or periods of heavy precip with light winds. This suggests that we could utilise evaporative cooling to lower the temps at the surface. The timing is good as well. Being at night, evaporative cooling will not be wasted. The precip will fall in an environment of nocturnal cooling rather than diurnal warming. Once the sunrises though chances on low ground will quickly diminish at this time of year.  

I expect a progression similar to boxing day 2014...but at night. Rain turning to snow for a time in the early hours perhaps leaving a temporary covering although I don't care about that so much. 

Let's see what happens, big surprises have come from this sort of event before. I will be staying up to see, maybe get a few hours sleep this evening. 

Can't wait to be doing all this in the summer with thunderstorms. 

[frosty ground]

his Evening and Tonight:

A band of rain, sleet and hill snow, along with occasional strong winds moves into the region overnight, with large amounts of snow over some higher parts. Icy patches are possible in any clear spells. Minimum Temperature 0 °C.

[cheshire snow]

I admire some of the recent posts

for me though not convinced at all

high ground though serious problems

though

C.S

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

I admire some of the recent posts

for me though not convinced at all

high ground though serious problems

though

C.S

  Even if it does go wrong ...again, which it probably will, it's the build up, excitement and anticipation which I love .  I will carry on doing this, and it just makes it all the more satisfying when something finally does go right. 

[Darren Bown]

I fully expect hillier areas to get quite a pasting from this. Anyone over 200m is really in for a good shout. Problem for lower ground is that we will probably see snow, but not after a period of rain. Moisture is being fed from the west, but the winds will be hardly anything, or from the east, which is a big difference to Wednesday's event.

[Day 10]

If Carlsberg did snow:

Powder snow arriving from midnight for the whole region, only starting off heavy at first then as the night wears on full scale blizzards for several hours, gradually easing off to heavy snow before ramping up again through the morning! Eventually easing off in the afternoon.

Depths: on the coast 1 to 3 houses

inland a tad more

PS A red warning is also issued for icebergs, polar bears and penguins on any lakes and rivers....

Edited March 3, 2016 by Minus 10