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What is the torpedo/future cold spell everyone's banging on about?

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Seen a lot of discussion about a torpedo in the model thread and frankly don't understand:

What is it? What weather wild it bring? When is it? How can we be so sure this far out?

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On 14 January 2016 at 0:45 PM, Deep Snow please said:

Seen a lot of discussion about a torpedo in the model thread and frankly don't understand:

What is it? What weather wild it bring? When is it? How can we be so sure this far out?

I would like to know too, please.

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Yeah I would too, but put into terms that I can understand...as simple as possible would be fab! Lol 

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It's the hypothetical cold spell that will occur once the telleconective pattern resets or we get a SSW.

In reality there's a decent chance of something below average returning but to forecast a major cold spell over a simple 'frost, fog and snow for Scotland' is not possible weeks out. 

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Thank you, summer blizzard.

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The origin of the torpedo can be seen in this post https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84756-model-output-discussions-pm-311215/?page=20#comment-3313293 which relates the possibility and impact of northward propagating atmospheric angular momentum anomalies.

However a search for the term 'torpedo' shows that it then took on a life of it's own such that it was responsible for just about any potential cold spell on the horizon, quite amusing - https://forum.netweather.tv/search/?&q=torpedo&page=1

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So he mentioned the torpedo hitting its target three weeks from the third of January which takes us to the 24th.

I'm therefore assuming that the torpedo hitting its target on that date does not mean cold and snow arriving on that date.

So, the torpedo is a precursor to what and when? 

I think GP showed analogues for February with a Scandi trough and Greenland High so we are still a good bit away from that. 

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Looks like it Northwestsnow. 

It would be nice if GP could give a summary on where the so called teleconnections went wrong.

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35 minutes ago, knocker said:

It's actually not particularly cold in the States.

gefs_t2ma_1d_noram_7.thumb.png.fae86adda

I agree they've had a mildish winter especially December and things look to be turning milder there again but at least they have had some spectacular snowfall unlike us here in the south of England.

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On 25 January 2016 at 10:22 AM, mountain shadow said:

Looks like it Northwestsnow. 

It would be nice if GP could give a summary on where the so called teleconnections went wrong.

I have made this comment before  but I never get why Glacier Point is looked on as some kind of mystical weather guru on this site by some. My issue is not with himself but the people who seem to put him on a pedestal and hang onto his words as though they are sacrosanct. At the end of the day, he is just a forecaster and he's going to get it wrong. February 2009, the "shades of '76" for summer 2011.....

Applying or predicting analogues for the large scale may work but I'm not convinced how it works at the micro level and UK is a small patch on the globe. I have seen these analogues and they give seasons or months that show similar patterns and then I think to myself, well those months or seasons were not the same. They give different weather to the UK. One was mild, another was cold, so how can you make a prediction based on this? 

Then you got the meteorological alphabet soup: NAO, AO, ENSO, OPI, PNA, SAI etc....

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16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I have made this comment before  but I never get why Glacier Point is looked on as some kind of mystical weather guru on this site by some. My issue is not with himself but the people who seem to put him on a pedestal and hang onto his words as though they are sacrosanct. At the end of the day, he is just a forecaster and he's going to get it wrong. February 2009, the "shades of '76" for summer 2011.....

Applying or predicting analogues for the large scale may work but I'm not convinced how it works at the micro level and UK is a small patch on the globe. I have seen these analogues and they give seasons or months that show similar patterns and then I think to myself, well those months or seasons were not the same. They give different weather to the UK. One was mild, another was cold, so how can you make a prediction based on this? 

Then you got the meteorological alphabet soup: NAO, AO, ENSO, OPI, PNA, SAI etc....

Yes, he is just a forecaster whose record is astounding but as you say he is not a god (even of small things!). The way I see it is that he (and Tamara!)look(s) into his(their)  "tea leaves" ( or more formally, teleconnections) and  give(s) broad brush forecasts for up to 3 to 4 weeks ahead. I've not done an analysis of his forecasts but I bet you that his stats are comparable to GFS at D15, that is in the 30 to 40 % range. Considering the money spent on the GFS system, I suppose employing him does seem the cheaper option!

 

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4 hours ago, Norway Nut said:

 I've not done an analysis of his forecasts but I bet you that his stats are comparable to GFS at D15, that is in the 30 to 40 % range. Considering the money spent on the GFS system, I suppose employing him does seem the cheaper option!

 

If i made a forecast that the UK will be dominated by Westerlies in a month's or two months time etc.. I would be right 70% of the time without using any forecasting material at all, because that was pre-dominates our small UK micro-climate.

The teleconnections would work if they cold predict CERTAIN cold at a month or two month, the reality is they can't.

 

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Well the Torpedo is ether a blank or has been fired somewhere else in the northern hemisphere ? Or a fake using Jeremy  Corbyn take on arms for britain?

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It's a stab in the dark that often gets put back lol

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