Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Chris1986]

Gfs is looking interesting on the first 60h!!

[karlos1983]

slight improvements on the angle of the "undercut" on the 12z, but you get the feeling it could be a pretty important first frame from UKMO.

06z   v   12z 

[SLEETY]

snow moving in 

[Snowman.]

17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Reading behind the lines in Strat thread there has been a general downbeat on the lack of an SSW being modelled.  It's not going to happen for Winter now. 

However a decent displacement of PV could still result in a cold period and this current snap has occurred with a deeply cold strat vortex.

We came this far without an SSW and we had a good role at the dice just a Hurricane and few shortwaves here and there spoiled it for us. As ever you pick your self up and dust yourself off and take it day by day. Who knows what feb has in store.

 

 

Also this is what was projected back at the start of Jan after the first attempt at a slider for today.

  

Today

Just food for thought

Edited January 15, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Chris1986]

Also seems to tie in with alex initial forcasts / track / speed / absorbson in the early hours of the run.

[Summer Sun]

Rain in the west and south west on Monday but turning to snow the further east it goes where the air remains that bit colder

[Swave Snow]

32 minutes ago, IDO said:

Unusual for Dr Cohen to be so downbeat:

 

 

It appears that there is still no clear sign from GFS (refers to) of a SSW though he believes it cannot be ruled out. I suppose we are mid-Jan and no forecast for an SSW is getting into the reliable. We are obviously running out of time given the usual lag time. Lets hope the AAM torpedo resets the UK sector with a decent Winter pattern as a strat event is not likely in the next 4 weeks.

Judah Cohen ‏@judah47  2h2 hours ago

However I still think expect lots of volatility in the models through month's end. And despite the holiday plan to issue new AO blog Monday

[Snowman.]

Snow for next week can barely make it pass the midlands on this run

 

[Ali1977]

Looks a lot better this run, snow in the SW Monday so guessing the hold air is holding on with a tighter grip.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Looks a lot better this run, snow in the SW Monday so guessing the hold air is holding on with a tighter grip.

get the feeling this will correct further west as it gets closer too

[bobbydog]

11 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I think that was a reference to a conversation in the Strat thread ....

Look at the table on the Berlin site - asterisk denotes SSW in February 1991.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

ah i see. could a displaced PV not have a similar effect to an SSW though?

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, snowhope said:

This should tell you all you need to know though. The models as we have all seen in the past week or so are so volatile in their output, why would the MO/BBC commit? Millions of people rely on them for the forecasts! With the models in such a state of disagreement in the relative short term it would be a brave person to commit to a scenario on here let alone in the national Media.

Quite...As there's so much uncertainty in what the models are saying, it would, IMHO, be exceedingly foolhardy for anyone to start making supposedly definitive predictions? What on Earth is wrong with admitting doubt?

[Snowman.]

Just now, bobbydog said:

ah i see. could a displaced PV not have a similar effect to an SSW though?

Yes. Just moving the PV to a favourable position can bring snow to our shores.

[Day 10]

6z to 12z = better!

 

[karlos1983]

UKMO @ 96

again big difference from GFS at the same timeframe 

Edited January 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[Ali1977]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

UKMO @ 96

Crazy, still quite different with regards heights over Greenland.

[Eskimo]

UKMO still not budging with the possibly of a weak undercut next week. The GFS also better with regards to the negative tilting of the low on Monday. 

[Weathizard]

Whilst there's quite a difference still at t96 looking any further is frankly pointless.. Intriguing model watching at the moment but highly frustrating tbh!

[seabreeze86]

The French ARPEGE looking interesting.

 

Undercut and a half, not sure how good this model is but i think the met office use it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO at day is very close to being a very good chart. If phasing could occur just a smidgen S...

[Ali1977]

Would the UKMOs set up deliver a better chance for snow on Monday?? Hard to work it out with 24 hour jumps and no precip charts.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Would the UKMOs set up deliver a better chance for snow on Monday?? Hard to work it out with 24 hour jumps and no precip charts.

At +72 the UKMO and GFS are almost identical over the uk, So I would imagine they'd be similar with any precip.

[warrenb]

Loving the Arpege run this afternoon. Total trough disruption and building Icelandic high.

 

Saying that, looking at the differences between this set of runs and the previous for all models, anything could happen, the Meto 120 compared to the previous 144 is completely different.

Edited January 15, 2016 by warrenb

[karlos1983]

Southwesterlies return at 120, bad not a horrendous chart

Edited January 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Southwesterlies return at 120, bad not a horrendous chart

So close to being a belter that