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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

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33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I also note from various tweets that the METO have said its not a case of when the Atlantic breaks through, it's "if" it does...So the possibilities of of what could happen next week are open, we may see a cold potentially snowy breakdown, or a high hold the Atlantic at bay. Best case I think we need to see things follow more of the UKMOs idea and get greater heights over Greenland, if we could do that the UK may get a whole lot colder and whiter as time ticks on towards Feb..

ECM will be interesting.

GOING to be very interesting see what happens next,the bbc forecasts are very uncertain for next week,and how fast the block moves away,if it does anyway.If the front hits the cold air it could well stall and some places could see heavy snowfall as it becomes slow-moving.Some classic uk snowfalls have happened in this scenario :),after that who knows,very exciting model watching over the next few days.

Edited by SLEETY
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Yes it is the case where the Atlantic is held back by a combination of the initial high and Scandi trough but all this does is allow the next wave from the Azores to pump up the original blocking high. GFS has been running with this for a day or so now. So by T180:

Mean: gens-21-1-180.thumb.png.00e7fbdf5639b45656968aa815657_gens-21-0-180(1).thumb.png

The cold is pushed east and we get a sustained block over the UK with the Azores pumping up the UK high between the Atlantic and Scandi trough. Just unlucky really (if it goes this way) as corrections west would bring us a blocked snowy cold set up. Instead it is cold and settled.

At D10 mean:

56968b3207891_gens-21-1-240(15).thumb.pn56968b32f29c8_gens-21-0-240(1).thumb.png

Bitter cold remains to the east, with the UK in the milder sector. By D15 (mean) little change as the block holds:

56968ba548805_gens-21-1-360(1).thumb.pnggens-21-0-360.thumb.png.2410d5a30f7e8102

We really need the UKMO solution or the GFS to correct west. We will see if ECM is better?

Edited by IDO
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2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes it is the case where the Atlantic is held back by a combination of the initial high and Scandi trough but all this does is allow the next wave from the Azores to pump up the original blocking high. GFS has been running with this for a day or so now. So by T180:

gens-21-1-180.thumb.png.00e7fbdf5639b45656968aa815657_gens-21-0-180(1).thumb.png

The cold is pushed east and we get a sustained block over the UK with the Azores pumping up the UK high between the Atlantic and Scandi trough. Just unlucky really (if it goes this way) as corrections west would bring us a blocked snowy cold set up. Instead it is cold and settled.

At D10:

56968b3207891_gens-21-1-240(15).thumb.pn56968b32f29c8_gens-21-0-240(1).thumb.png

Bitter cold remains to the east, with the UK in the milder sector. By D15 little change as the block holds:

56968ba548805_gens-21-1-360(1).thumb.pnggens-21-0-360.thumb.png.2410d5a30f7e8102

We really need the UKMO solution or the GFS to correct west. We will see if ECM is better?

yes so much to decide,it wouldnt take much to put the uk in the freezer soon ,best spell of model watching for a long time :)

 

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Just now, SLEETY said:

yes so much to decide,it wouldnt take much to put the uk in the freezer soon ,best spell of model watching for a long time :)

 

Yes and cannot rule out bearing in mind GFS has been only slowly resolving the pattern, so early days to say the current FI output is correct. CFS has a UK high right into mid Feb: 

wk3.wk4_20160112.z500.thumb.gif.052826f1

Very strong anomaly so there must be a strong background signal. Get that block in the right place and we could be very cold for weeks.

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Just now, *Sub*Zero* said:

It will still be chilly under that high pressure @IDO look at the potential 2m minimums through next week, cold and frosty right to the end of NEXT week for most and to think the GFS wanted to sweep the cold away this weekend!! The GFS has been the weakest link, the back peddling continues... :) 

 

Yes no idea how cold that high will be, but for sure it wont be mild. I think in prime Winter time I am hoping for maybe the GFS to build the high through the Scandi trough and get some HLB as it looks like there is plenty of WAA and it is wasted just pumping up a UK high. But as you say GFS is playing catch up so low confidence in the current FI solution despite its consistency. We will see if ECM continues to agree with the GFS theme after D7-8?

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20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think if you want chances for snow you're going to have cheer on the UKMO output, the GFS apart from the initial shortwave which might affect the far sw looks dry and very cold.

The UKMO looks likely to try and send some shortwave energy se at T168hrs. Its a bit catch 22 with these set ups because if the block is being underplayed then shortwaves generally end up tracking further south but then you are more likely to stay in the colder conditions.

I think the issue if these shortwaves miss the UK is whether that Scandi troughing can edge sufficiently west to bring some instability into the flow into the UK.

That's the better solution because then you get 2 bites at the cherry, the block has to get shifted at some point and then you get a further chance of snow as that's done, if the Atlantic is too strong first up then its game over, plus the colder the surface, the more chance of snow when the Atlantic tries to come in again.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

The mean looks cold through most of next week

gefsens850London0.png

:cold:

And predominantly dry. Snow potential but not band after band of rain.

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Looking at GEfs shows a pretty persistent high building around the UK or near continent to the end of the run.

The spreads/groupings vary it's position from day to day but it's never far away.Could well remain quite cold unless it drifts too far se.

Of course the way GFS has shown it's progressive hand recently doubt remains on this outlook and there is some wriggle room for a better placed block.

Certainly it's worth keeping an open mind after day 6/7 on future developments.

 

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Please post will it snow questions/views without model discussion to here please.

 

some posts have been moved there.

Ta.

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Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Yes here's 96h

ECM1-96.GIF?13-0

Question is can it eject a shortwave / small trough underneath like on the 0z, Next frame crucial.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Question is can it eject a shortwave / small trough underneath like on the 0z, Next frame crucial.

 

Hard to tell if it's good or not at 96h, yep 120 is a MASSIVE frame 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Question is can it eject a shortwave / small trough underneath like on the 0z, Next frame crucial.

the ecm looking really really good and nowhere for the atlantic low can go except under

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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

Hard to tell if it's good or not at 96h, yep 120 is a MASSIVE frame 

Not as clean as the 0z, very shallow feature, Just about!

ECH1-120_qnt1.GIF

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2 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

the ecm looking really really good and nowhere for the atlantic low can go except under

Your right, 120h is the dogs.... *cough*

ECH1-120.GIF?13-0

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T+24

I would expect showers of sleet/snow to come inland off the North Sea for eastern counties as the low dives into the Low Countries, there's an easterly element - accompanied by relatively warm North Sea. I suppose there could be quite widespread wintry, showery activity for eastern half of the country. Thoughts?

image.thumb.png.cdad7083c6831deacfb2e8e3image.thumb.png.e02adbf516b127171e30c5a7

Edited by Earnest Easterly*
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If I read the charts right both ECM and UKMO could have a proper snow threat for some parts on Monday, even the south may get lucky. If they verify of course.

Edited by Ali1977

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ECM0-120.thumb.gif.2d25c66fb690ca1990efe

rather cold less cold in the north but cold air moving in from the ne and from the east

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not as clean as the 0z, very shallow feature, Just about!

ECH1-120_qnt1.GIF

In it's own right not perfection but the transition from 96-120 tells me 144h is going to be just that :D

 

I see from run to run the undercut from the west under our blocking high and a developing continental feed seem to be getting closer and closer!

If we can get these two link up, we would be looking at epic charts!

Edited by Harsh Climate
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1 minute ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

T+24

I would expect showers of sleet/snow to come inland off the North Sea for eastern counties as the low dives into the Low Countries, there's a easterly element - accompanied by relatively warm North Sea. I suppose there could be quite widespread wintry, showery activity for eastern half of the country?

image.thumb.png.cdad7083c6831deacfb2e8e3image.thumb.png.e02adbf516b127171e30c5a7

Where do you find those up close charts? Do you have a link please?

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