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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

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UN120-21.GIF?13-17

At 120 the low pressure systems in the atlantic seem to be going backwards. Its like they get so far and then say bugger this I'm off!! The high seems to be robust and getting robuster!!

Edited by Continental Climate
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gfsnh-0-162.png?12

 

If someone said to me high pressure frosts and very cold nights with a long way back to anything remotely warm i'd have taken it!!! :cold:

6hrs difference!!

gfsnh-1-180.png?12       gfsnh-1-186.png?6

Edited by ALL ABOARD
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UKMO 144h Major undercut and major frontal snow incoming to the west!!

 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

And snow showers pushing in from the north east.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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UN144-21.GIF?13-17

A slight slackening off of heights to our north but it looks like it could be game on for a proper undercut. I would have liked slightly stronger heights to be there if I'm honest. Could this lessening of heights be the breakdown the met speak of?

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A week ago today, was that stellar ECM run. 6 days ago we saw the "proper" cold spell start to downgrade significantly across the models to almost a two/three day event.  Next we started to see some improvements for the cold to extend into the coming weekend and maybe early next week. Now the last two days have seen a big upgrade again in the cold longevity with the GFS (yes the GFS) still cold at 168 (wednesday) when it was bringing mild weather in Sunday only 2/3 days ago. Models have been all over the place tbh. If this does come off, the UKMO model has not been 100% spot on of course, but its been a lot better at modelling this than the other two (from the data we can see).

 

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1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

UN144-21.GIF?13-17

A slight slackening off of heights to our north but it looks like it could be game on for a proper undercut. I would have liked slightly stronger heights to be there if I'm honest. Could this lessening of heights be the breakdown the met speak of?

Too me its hard too tell because cold air is obviously denser so a cold block can affectively make either Atlantic systems stall or weaken and undercut but as I say, don't still discount the Atlantic coming in quicker than we would like. 

Either way, its a good UKMO run if you like cold frosty and sunny weather and if the Atlantic does try and come in, then at least try and give some frontal snow with it. 

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This is looking like a crushing embarassing defeat for the GFS, will we ever be able to take the model seriously after this event?? With the UK model (UKMO) coming out trumps 8)

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A very consistent UKMO run and GFS making considerably adjustments toward the Atlantic being held back... great signals so far from the 12z runs, hopefully ECM will at least be on a par with its 00z det. run to provide confidence over a good part of next week being cold with very cold nights possible depending on whether we get the high and dry option or disrupting lows trying to make their way in as UKMO's +144 suggests for +168. 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

To me it just highlights the complete folly of posting zonal  GEFS day 15 means really.

Might as well give a six year old a pencil ..

 

Spot on. Same with anomolies. They give you a small hint of a 'broadbrush, general pattern - but much like Steve said, don't deal with shortwaves, the fluid nature of patterns, short term differences etc. 

UKMO has had this nailed for about a week or so now. As far as I'm concerned, apart from picking the odd trend up with regards to breakdowns, the GFS has been wholly hopeless for about 2 weeks. 

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6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

This is looking like a crushing embarassing defeat for the GFS, will we ever be able to take the model seriously after this event?? With the UK model (UKMO) coming out trumps 8)

Depends on how you look at it really, ECM has been predicting similar to the GFS with its only backing off in recent runs however the cold does still breakdown sometime next week. 

So if the cold break down lets say in the middle part of next week? Would you say the GFS(and the ECM) was fully wrong or over progressive? Its a long way off and plenty more runs are needed I feel before we can say for definate and variations with each run will continue. 

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8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

This is looking like a crushing embarassing defeat for the GFS, will we ever be able to take the model seriously after this event?? With the UK model (UKMO) coming out trumps 8)

You have to accept what it is, its the 3rd best verifying model in the world so will on average perform worse than the Euro's.

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I thought the GFS had about 4  or 5 runs in a row a couple of days ago when out to t120ish it showed great consistency. Looks like it was consistently wrong! :D

The UKMO has been excellent and like others have noted the UKMO is usually the one that puts the dampeners on a cold outlook even when the other major models are going for it. This time the UKMO has been the one consistently going for cold.

I'm really looking forward to some sunny crisp winter days and then who knows what may happen with snow.

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

To me it just highlights the complete folly of posting zonal  GEFS day 15 means really.

Might as well give a six year old a pencil ..

 

The trouble is if this winter turns out out to be late epic that so many of us hope for, we could spend another 20 mild winters in the future with people telling us not to worry about what the models are showing because remember 2016...   :)

Edited by Timmytour
typo
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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Depends on how you look at it really, ECM has been predicting similar to the GFS with its only backing off in recent runs however the cold does still breakdown sometime next week. 

So if the cold break down lets say in the middle part of next week? Would you say the GFS(and the ECM) was fully wrong or over progressive? Its a long way off and plenty more runs are needed I feel before we can say for definate and variations with each run will continue. 

I would even then say the UKMO has won hands down. The thing is we will never know if the UKMO predicted a breakdown/would have done mid next week as it only goes to 144h.

But in extending this cold spell, with the possibilities of a NE/easterly after this weekend rather than an atlantic driven breakdown/south westerly it has won hands down. I think that can be said with confidence now that there will be no full breakdown until at least next week. The gfs has showed breakdown/mild run after run and essemble suite's have been the same generally. The ECM has been middle ground, so although it hasn't performed the best, hasn't performed the worst.

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From an imby point of view. The cold digs in to late for central and southern UK which means it's just more rain I hope there's still time for small adjustments in the models. Otherwise it's just the same but with cold rain then from Friday nite onwards just looks dry as a bone. Although our friends up north will welcome a dry spell I still can't' see a pot of a gold at the end of the rainbow. Although those with elevation will do well out of this. :nonono:

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The GFS Ops have been dreadful this last week and for a numpty like me shows why Meto doesnt take them into account v often.

It's been playing catch up for days; a bit like switching on the telly 7 hours into the London marathon and seeing the last straggler (GFS) approaching the finish. Meanwhile the rest (ECM, JMA and UKMO) are in the pub on their 3rd pint!

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1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

However wasn't the GFS the first to back away from that arctic Greenland high link up? I've viewed so many charts last 6 weeks my mind is like frazzled bacon.:D

Probably, same here, I don't really concentrate on whats happened in the past wrt detailed analysis on model performance (I know one really should), I just bare in mind when viewing the runs that the GFS can be over progressive in the 6 day(ish) range and the ECM can be too blocked to the North East at the end of the run and the UKMO can often be the model of reason, if you bare that in mind and always bare in mind that the type of weather we chase is much harder to model so FI is earlier than when the Atlantic is in full steam, use your ensemble products (as they are supposed to be used) and the Anomaly charts that John Holmes posts for 10-15 day range, anything further always view the strat / technical threads and don't be too reliant on models with the exception of GLOSEA5 and perhaps the EC32, bare all this in mind and you wont go far wrong.

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GEM and GFS take a similar route by T180. Parts of Eastern and Southeastern Europe going into the freezer.

gfs-0-180.png?12gem-0-180.png?12

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9 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

However wasn't the GFS the first to back away from that arctic Greenland high link up? I've viewed so many charts last 6 weeks my mind is like frazzled bacon.:D

Yes it was the first one to show the Atlantic SW problem and the thinner initial ridge with a more westward position leading to the loss of the big block over Greenie that was there recently. This was likely because it is always a bit  fast (more zonal) than the others so when the models are moving to a less amplified outlook then it shows this first. However if the model outlook is tending to show a more amplified position then it picks this up last (in the range medium term range). As we know the EC is prone to a bit of over amplification at times at long range. It does seem that UKMO maybe be better at handling undercut scenarios at the 120/144 range (however remember this one has not happened so we still do not know if it going to correct). So this means we should look at all the models to see which way they are trending and make a judgement from there.

 

Just to add as Mushy and JH pointed out earlier the 500 mb anomaly charts have been pretty stead fast in predicting the maintenance of the ridge and the prolonging of the cold till about the 21st.

Edited by swilliam
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