Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

What are you on about?  Once the low over in the Med clears to the east, the high will sink.  There is no further undercut to keep the high where it is.  It's a reasonable chart but it's a significant downgrade from previous runs.

As for the other models, the less said the better.

In summary - poor runs overnight - let#s wait for the EPS to see if there is a small glimmer...

I am not expert enough to say what will happen next week given the model output as it stands.

What I would say however is that cold pool to the East will prevent any Atlantic attack from getting any further than the UK so whether that means snowmageddon or a damp squib I am not sure but either way the cold will never be far away from our shores.

[Rocheydub]

Sadly, with that large chunk of vortex to the NE, there will be no omega block there. That's a significantly poorer chart on UKMO. Disappointing runs this morning.

 

That said, 5 or so days of cold wintery weather to enjoy now, we deserve this respite from warm, wind and rain!

[i luv snow]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Those thinking there hasn't been a downgrade are mistaken, whilst the UKMO is still very cold to Wed, it is plain to see it wont last. GFS and ECM roll over easier than yesterday's charts. We have a very cold weekend to look forward to with frosts that may linger all day. Still only mid Jan, coldest 6 weeks of the year to come going off stats - I don't think we've seen the best of Winter yet.

I think the issue is the reactions to the runs, things yesterday were trending in the right direction and this has been one run, so we will have to wait and see how the models evolve today. People who say they would rather see a snowy breakdown, this would probably be maybe a few hours of snow which turns to rain/slush, followed by SW's. Is that really what people want? Or would you want to keep the cold and wait for snowy opportunities to arise, which they always do? So that said, I think today we should we hoping to see evolution's more in step with yesterdays runs. 

Edited January 14, 2016 by i luv snow

[Shuga ice]

Unfortunately this is a downgrade by ukmo no matter how you want to paint it.  I can see a slow sinking evolution here keeping the south mainly dry with the north and west turning milder and wetter in line with my forecast last week.  There is hope that the high will reassert itself to bring in easterly winds which would give a proper cold spell rather than an imitation one.

[mountain shadow]

The Met charts look similar to the NOAA long wave pattern projections so I feel the ECM and GFS are a little quick in bringing in the Atlantic, however, the end is now in site for this cold snap.

We await the torpedo...

[blizzard81]

Much denial on here this morning with regards to the ukmo - which IS, repeat IS a downgrade. If people want to remain in denial then at least keep it to yourself as your posts can be very misleading to new members.

[i luv snow]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Much denial on here this morning with regards to the ukmo - which IS, repeat IS a downgrade. If people want to remain in denial then at least keep it to yourself as your posts can be very misleading to new members.

But cut-throat reactions to single runs is much more helpful, than teaching people to look at the bigger picture, not discounting all previous runs and taking the most recent as gospel without even waiting for the ensembles? That is the issue here, not whether a run is a upgrade or downgrade.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

But cut-throat reactions to single runs is much more helpful, than teaching people to look at the bigger picture, not discounting all previous runs and taking the most recent as gospel without even waiting for the ensembles? That is the issue here, not whether a run is a upgrade or downgrade.

The downgrades this morning start at T72 so no way back I am afraid. Pragmatism must prevail for the sake of new members trying to feel their way. 

[West is Best]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Much denial on here this morning with regards to the ukmo - which IS, repeat IS a downgrade. If people want to remain in denial then at least keep it to yourself as your posts can be very misleading to new members.

It's just as misleading endlessly to repeat the same mantra without a single supporting link or picture for evidence.  I've shown you the T144 UKMO chart with a very cold high pressure cell slap bang over the UK and even a tentative showing for an Omega Block to the north. We can argue about terms like 'downgrade' but in my book retaining the cold pool over the UK cannot be termed a 'downgrade,' at least meteorologically. Surface temperatures would follow suit from this, with minus double digit minima over large swathes of the UK. If you mean that boundary snow from an advancing Atlantic is less imminent then that can be granted but I know which I'd take in the longer term from a cold perspective.

Perhaps you could read the above and look at the supporting chart below and respond with evidence. Or not.

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by West is Best

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Much denial on here this morning with regards to the ukmo - which IS, repeat IS a downgrade. If people want to remain in denial then at least keep it to yourself as your posts can be very misleading to new members.

If you take each run as gospel , then yes this morning the models are not as good , but thankfully it doesn't mean this mornings ukmo is any more likely to happen as it was yesterday , and if you read and digest between the lines then you would no not get caught up in the emotional rolarcoaster of the models .  Look for trends , listen to the people on hear who are very well respected across the board , and when every single model gives a different outcome , like it does today by the way , then it means give it time and the models are likely struggling with the pattern upstream .

 

[karyo]

Not only have the models downgraded the duration of the cold spell but also the upper air temperatures do not look to be as cold. For example, the trough that is projected to come down the country tomorrow is now infested with warm sectors. Snow likely to be restricted to high ground.

Edited January 14, 2016 by karyo

[i luv snow]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The downgrades this morning start at T72 so no way back I am afraid. Pragmatism must prevail for the sake of new members trying to feel their way. 

Agree to disagree mate. You don't discount the few previous runs based on one single run.The upgrades might start at T48 on the next run, but it doesn't mean the models have sorted it out yet. That's all I'm saying. Pleasure to have such optimistic and enlightening posts for new members to read...

Edited January 14, 2016 by i luv snow

[Timmytour]

The UKMO run being discussed is a downgrade on a lengthy cold spell...no question about it.  And to describe it as such is discussing that model run.  Yes it doesn't mean that it is now accurate whereas it wasn't before, but it is as legitimate to discuss it as it was to say how great the previous runs might have been.

In fact perhaps the most misleading thing is to say perhaps is that consistency in runs is a  good thing.  At the end of the day it's only accuracy that counts.  And where there are a range of signals that lead to a model providing different runs every time it comes out, perhaps it should be acknowledged that at least that model is responding to those signals and trying to bring them together, rather than ignoring them but trying to play catch up later?

Edited January 14, 2016 by Timmytour
spelling

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The downgrades this morning start at T72 so no way back I am afraid. Pragmatism must prevail for the sake of new members trying to feel their way. 

Lets forget all of the ensembles and disregard all of the output from just last night then.

It may well turn milder but the 6z GFS could put us back in the freezer.  Just some balance would be nice!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

FYI for some people if you see yellows on the maps it don't mean it will be warm :')

[West is Best]

53 minutes ago, joggs said:

Well I for one would rather have a GFS snowy breakdown than just the high slowly sinking and winds turning more Atlantic based.

An Omega Block wouldn't see any slow sinking high. 

As mentioned, it's the holy grail for cold lovers and it just shows the faintest hint at T144. It's no more than a quick flash of leg, but it's there.

[Day 10]

Morning,

Let's hope for everyone's sake there's at least a snowy breakdown early next week then maybe a blip to more average conditions before the cold returns with a vengeance.

Nice blocking to the east here maybe to something to look for in the near future?

 

[i luv snow]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

The UKMO run being discussed is a downgrade on a lengthy cold spell...no question about it.  And to describe it as such is discussing that model run.  Yes it doesn't mean that it is now accurate whereas it wasn't before, but it is as legitimate to discuss it as it was to say how great the previous runs might have been.

In fact perhaps the most misleading thing is to say perhaps is that consistency in runs is a  good thing.  At the end of the day it's only accuracy that counts.  And where there are a range of signals that lead to a model providing different runs every time it comes out, perhaps it should be acknowledged that at least that model is responding to those signals and trying to bring them together, rather than ignoring them but trying to play catch up later?

Sorry to keep banging on about it, but you can comment on a particular run (perhaps with charts to back up your thoughts) but you can't talk about it as gospel, as if it is more likely to happen than the previous one, or the next one. And yes accuracy is of course important, but this is usually (note usually) accompanied by consistency. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, i luv snow said:

Agree to disagree mate. You don't discount the few previous runs based on one single run. Foolish. That's all I'm saying. Pleasure to have such optimistic and enlightening posts for new members to read...

I am all for optimism if it is well founded. If it is not, it is known as denial. This is the model forum. If there were huge upgrades this morning, people would be singing it from the roof tops. Say it how it is and you will not go far wrong.

[beefy201]

You had a good level headed teacher icy blast I think the models are up and down and struggling to get to grips with current synopsis, I think we are on the cusp of something really special there are some surprise snowfalls across Birmingham this morning More to follow  

[SLEETY]

14 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

I also note from various tweets that the METO have said its not a case of when the Atlantic breaks through, it's "if" it does...So the possibilities of of what could happen next week are open, we may see a cold potentially snowy breakdown, or a high hold the Atlantic at bay. Best case I think we need to see things follow more of the UKMOs idea and get greater heights over Greenland, if we could do that the UK may get a whole lot colder and whiter as time ticks on towards Feb..

ECM will be interesting.

GOING to be very interesting see what happens next,the bbc forecasts are very uncertain for next week,and how fast the block moves away,if it does anyway.If the front hits the cold air it could well stall and some places could see heavy snowfall as it becomes slow,moving.Some classic uk snowfalls have happened in this scenario :),after that who knows,very exciting model watching over the next few days.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I am all for optimism if it is well founded. If it is not, it is known as denial. This is the model forum. If there were huge upgrades this morning, people would be singing it from the roof tops. Say it how it is and you will not go far wrong.

So saying it how it is then....

UKMO - still cold and blocked at T144 (still well into FI so subject to change)

GFS - huge snow event on Monday followed by mild weather (vastly different from UKMO but a viable option) and then colder again in deep FI

ECM - less dramatic teturn to milder weather

Verdict - models are all over the place, more runs are needed, and nothing is set in stone beyond the weekend!

Simples!

[markw2680]

8 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

You had a good level headed teacher icy blast I think the models are up and down and struggling to get to grips with current synopsis, I think we are on the cusp of something really special there are some surprise snowfalls across Birmingham this morning More to follow  

Totally agree with this iv been lurking on here for years and blimey if you took notice of some of the posts on here you wouldn't no if you was coming or going tbh, just look at the models for trends not each run and think yes it's gonna get cold to then look later and think oh no its not it's now gonna be a mild etc. Very misleading at times

[Liam J]

Can we stop the bickering and digs at other members please folks!! No need at all. Stick to what the models are showing please. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

6 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

So saying it how it is then....

UKMO - still cold and blocked at T144 (still well into FI so subject to change)

GFS - huge snow event on Monday followed by mild weather (vastly different from UKMO but a viable option) and then colder again in deep FI

ECM - less dramatic teturn to milder weather

Verdict - models are all over the place, more runs are needed, and nothing is set in stone beyond the weekend!

Simples!

The most informative post yet . 

Those hell bent on downgrade etc , which model are you to follow ? Because there all different , heavy snow on Monday or cold and dry ?  Severe frosts next week or mild southwesterlies ? It's hilariously funny this morning in here and unfortunately it's toys out prams , I'd rather stick to the annomalys thanks , and compare run for run , to look for trends , rather than what we have this morning . If every model shows a change next week for the next 3/4 days then maybe , but one morning ? Have a day off guys 

Edited January 14, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast