Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[booferking]

I have notice run by run Atlantic getting moved further back hope this trend continues.

[warrenb]

Well we could have round 2 coming, but this time it is the Americans going for it and not the Euros.

[tight isobar]

[tight isobar]

The Gem sniffs the idea also...

We realy need a shift in ecm and support. .

However nice to see an operational on board...

As this scenario has been being hinted at behind the op's

[Southender]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Good spot. GEM heading the same way as the GFS Op & P in bringing in an E/SE flow by the latter part of next week.

I suspect the GFS Op will be one of, if not the coldest option amongst the ensemble pack. Let's hope it has some support in the mid-range.

A long way off yet, nice to see, but we need to see this output still showing come the weekend before we get drawn in again....

Edited January 20, 2016 by Southender

[Dunstable Snow]

well that's a little more encouraging - the signs have been there however :-

Strong cold pool just to the East now well established

Vortex under pressure and will continue to be so going forward.

The strong heights modelled to the South are strongly influenced by forcing from the PV. If this remains under pressure and we can get back into -AO territory these heights will come under pressure.

I thought it was very interesting yesterday to read BA's comments re the GFS P runs and most significantly the comments from IF. He doesn't make these sort of comments for the sake of it...

A long way to go but lets see where it takes us. End of January/beginning of February is a perfect time for a strong sustained easterly to set in . Do keep in mind that these synoptics are a week or so away - there will be  a lot of model pain to go through to land this thing !

[Snowman.]

OP vs Control 6z

    

 

[Day 10]

Been checking the models a lot more intermittently lately as apart from a bit of frost here an there, there hasn't been a lot to comment on for coldies.

Personally I am still chasing the elusive first snowfall or as I've stated before one of these:

However even though it is the 6z GFS, it is worth taking note of, especially as the interest begins around 144 with the high in the Atlantic starting to link up with the huge block to our east which eventually ends in the beginnings of a very cold easterly!

Maybe something, may turn out to be nothing. I await the 12z's with interest.

[Gibby]

I'm not surprised at the increased interest that the 6z shows as I hinted might happen in my morning report. Let's hope it's the start of something that's expanded upon later.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Been looking through the GEFS 6z ensembles and the majority show high pressure near us after the 180 hour mark.  Just over half show a movement of that block of cold to the east, westwards. Around 4-5 show some form of easterly between 200-300 hours and around 2 of these show a beasterly. For example, run number 17 shows this at day 11-  

 which equates to this in terms of upper air temps- 

 

No gurantee of an easterly, but no gurantee of a south westerly. It's all up in the air, and I for one, am looking forward to the next 5 days of model watching.  There could be something brewing  

Edited January 20, 2016 by BarnetBlizzard

[bradymk]

A lot more support in the ENS than I thought there would be. Clearly this still remains an option for next week. GFS(P) has been keen on this too the last few runs so therefore it gives us something to look forward to for the 12z's. 

[Snow Run]

And way out into FI, sliders under a Norwegian Sea block for those who missed out on the inital easterly

Edited January 20, 2016 by Howey

[Jason M]

35 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

Been looking through the GEFS 6z ensembles and the majority show high pressure near us after the 180 hour mark.  Just over half show a movement of that block of cold to the east, westwards. Around 4-5 show some form of easterly between 200-300 hours and around 2 of these show a beasterly. For example, run number 17 shows this at day 11-  

 which equates to this in terms of upper air temps- 

 

No gurantee of an easterly, but no gurantee of a south westerly. It's all up in the air, and I for one, am looking forward to the next 5 days of model watching.  There could be something brewing  

That would be the holy grail for many on here. Plenty of Snow from that I'd have thought.

[mb018538]

The vast majority of 6z ensembles are still on the mild side. A few cold ones on there, but we obviously need more support as time goes by!

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06hrs run certainly keeps the interest going but departs from the Euros quite early.

Then we have the infamous trigger shortwave near Norway around the T162hrs timeframe which is key to getting the easterly.

No middle ground solutions here, that either tracks south or its game over for the easterly within T240hrs.

The issues re the Euros is that they're already past the point of no return by T144hrs as they've already pushed low heights much further east towards Svalbard.

Quite a bizarre scenario because the Euros are generally less progressive as a rule but we have the opposite scenario here.

You can see by comparing the GFS 06hrs run to T138hrs against the ECM 00hrs run to T144hrs:

 

Broadly speaking you have very similar overall NH patterns, however you'll see the low heights both from Greenland and another area moving nw towards Svalbard on the ECM.

The GFS separates those low heights and has that key pressure rise near Svalbard.

This is why the ECM is past the point of no return.

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by nick sussex

[fromey]

would this have an effect on the ECM Later outputs now it being shown by that model 

zonal winds.png-large

Edited January 20, 2016 by fromey

[Nouska]

Those who have been following the strat discussion for years might remember what was happening in January 2012 ....

             This was forecast for the middle of January ...

...not a million miles from positioning of current expected warming. 

It verified and the weather on the ground a few days later   ....

Current GFS 06Z not implausible on recent past history.

Edit to add the caveat that the GFSp is more bullish with this pattern of strat warming and is possibly the reason it is persisting with the output seen on recent runs - most recent run 00Z

                                                                                                                

So similar to the one above from four years ago!

Edited January 20, 2016 by Nouska

[nick sussex]

20 minutes ago, fromey said:

would this have an effect on the ECM Later outputs now it being shown by that model

zonal winds.png-large

The mean zonal winds do actually support a build of pressure in the Svalbard region however the ECM trop seems to be disconnected.

Generally when we see this zonal reversal high pressure in the Arctic extending towards Svalbard, the GFS seems to be doing this quite strongly the ECM not.

Putting aside the vagaries of the strat/trop relationship if you were shown an output that would tie in with  the slowing of those zonal winds and a reversal at those other levels then you'd think the GFS 06hrs wasn't barking mad! Unfortunately the ECM operational runs don't want to know.

Given the timeframes involved if theres to be any big changes then both the ECM/UKMO should pick up on that tonight.

In these types of set ups it would have been better to have the Euros against the GFS, regardless of recent performance I'd have more faith in the Euros having a better handle on this.

Anyway we'll see this evening.

 

 

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by nick sussex

[Purga]

50 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The vast majority of 6z ensembles are still on the mild side. A few cold ones on there, but we obviously need more support as time goes by!

In the shorter term yes but I would say that there is an increased trend to a cold solution later on with the Control bringing the cold in earlier than the Op

 

Just to add a bit more to the mix:

"The ensembles (Met O and ECM) show more support for a NW or N type in 10 days time or so, much less for any easterly or building high from the East"

Courtesy of Tom C (Met Office) posted a bit earlier on TWO.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Purga

[Timmytour]

31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06hrs run certainly keeps the interest going but departs from the Euros quite early.

Then we have the infamous trigger shortwave near Norway around the T162hrs timeframe which is key to getting the easterly.

No middle ground solutions here, that either tracks south or its game over for the easterly within T240hrs.

The issues re the Euros is that they're already past the point of no return by T144hrs as they've already pushed low heights much further east towards Svalbard.

Quite a bizarre scenario because the Euros are generally less progressive as a rule but we have the opposite scenario here.

You can see by comparing the GFS 06hrs run to T138hrs against the ECM 00hrs run to T144hrs:

 

Broadly speaking you have very similar overall NH patterns, however you'll see the low heights both from Greenland and another area moving nw towards Svalbard on the ECM.

The GFS separates those low heights and has that key pressure rise near Svalbard.

This is why the ECM is past the point of no return.

 

Nick....do you think the way GFS has gone might only be the start?  Any chance of it cutting off the Greenland lobe of the PV in future runs?

The 18z GFS from yesterday was here, which doesn't seem that far away from the ECM 0z....perhaps, or rather hopefully, it's picked up on a signal more quickly?

[Lukesluckybunch]

So looking at the latest gfs op was quite promising! Some quite outstanding ouput being shown let's hope the 12z backs this up!and we can finally see some proper cold some of that stuff from the east! Not like what we are having currently!

[Liam J]

Somebody been adding charts from February 1991 into current output? 1991 looks better though with the high further west & better Atlantic undercut.. Hope this becomes the new trend!  Won't hold my breath though... 

 

GFS  GEM   Feb 1991  

[Southender]

55 minutes ago, Purga said:

In the shorter term yes but I would say that there is an increased trend to a cold solution later on with the Control bringing the cold in earlier than the Op

 

Just to add a bit more to the mix:

"The ensembles (Met O and ECM) show more support for a NW or N type in 10 days time or so, much less for any easterly or building high from the East"

Courtesy of Tom C (Met Office) posted a bit earlier on TWO.

Am I missing something here?

The GFS OP drops to around -12 850's for London around Day 10 on the below chart. Yet this is not shown on the ensembles, unless I am looking at the wrong line?!....I thought the bright green line was the OP, or am I going colour blind?!

There is also a break in the data for the OP line around day 10 and it then appears to follow another pb. Meanwhile the OP then re-appears and stays above the mean mostly.

Confused.com?....looks dodge to me.

Edited January 20, 2016 by Southender

[warrenb]

Here you go

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by warrenb

[Southender]

Just now, warrenb said:

Here you go

 

Thanks!

Those look better. That Wetter one looks dodgy.com to me.