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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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wishingforsnow Explorer

wishingforsnow

Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair he implied the cold would encroach back westward, he didn't imply a direct Easterly or bitterly cold temperatures, probably dry cold raw air.

Still we could be seeing the start of something more significant cold wise :cold: Baby steps

To be fair it would be a mighty brave call of them to call it a direct Easterly at this early stage anyway

Edited by wishingforsnow
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, wishingforsnow said:

Still we could be seeing the start of something more significant cold wise :cold: Baby steps

Oh yes, certainly better than having the atlantic powering right through.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone got any EC32 info from tonights run please.

I'll summarise it now, having not even seen it. Mild.

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

All the signs and signals are there in the models for a very cold February...

 

image.png

image.png

image.gif

image.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Yep apologies for the quote: direct easterly! ..

However 2'points worthy of mention. 

1:theres uncertainties that the cold 'ever' realy leaves the far east.

2:given the mentioned tomas shaffanaka' forecast and twining it with evolving output hint (of an easterly incur)..its Certainly something to be eyeballing. .and given current mentioned. .its actually at present looking more likely of an easterly than even a north/north west incur.....that in itself something! !!!!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'll summarise it now, having not even seen it. Mild.

hope not.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

hope not.

My point is it always seems to show mild (I'm sure knocker would disagree with me however). Its last update showed above average temps if I recall from knocker's post in the banter thread. 

TBH from what I can make of its performance (based purely on how it's been interpreted and posted on here over the past few years) I certainly wouldn't part with the hefty sums of money needed to acquire its services.

Edited by CreweCold
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, CreweCold said:

My point is it always seems to show mild (I'm sure knocker would disagree with me however). Its last update showed above average temps if I recall from knocker's post in the banter thread. 

yes I knew what you were getting at, still would rather have it on board though - more importantly up top,

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

This mornings ecmp brought a cold easterly flow at the end of its run as the ridge got far enough North. I dont think Exeter have dismissed this solution.

Not at all it's featured in the week ahead forecast by Tomasz S.

stressed the possibility, I think we're on a verge here and it's all going to come crashing down in a good way! I really do think this current cold spell is the appetiser to the main event. 

image.thumb.png.4bc6fd7c67b9575161a050a1

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Given all the output we have seen so far it looks like the next cold spell will be a bit of a slow burner, may take a while to get blocking in the right places.

I wonder what impact any SSW will have by second half of Feb?

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
8 hours ago, geoffw said:

what do the ecm ensembles show ?

 

5 hours ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Not at all it's featured in the week ahead forecast by Tomasz S.

stressed the possibility, I think we're on a verge here and it's all going to come crashing down in a good way! I really do think this current cold spell is the appetiser to the main event. 

image.thumb.png.4bc6fd7c67b9575161a050a1

Umm...that might change after the overnights... Looks very mild on the UkMetUkMet

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Chris1986 Rookie

Chris1986

Posted
Posted

.

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Given all the output we have seen so far it looks like the next cold spell will be a bit of a slow burner, may take a while to get blocking in the right places.

I wonder what impact any SSW will have by second half of Feb?

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

 

North westerly....?? I'm confused :) 

00_384_mslp850.thumb.png.ba31622711a4a3e

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

Although UKMO looks mild, it's actually quite a good chart to set the stage for something much colder a little later on, all that WAA and quite a nice profile to the east. An easterly developing from here wouldn't surprise me.

 

image.gif

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Chris1986 Rookie

Chris1986

Posted
Posted

Well according to the pros the tst coupling is already underway, the majour ssw should last until march and we are just starting to see the culmination of events At the end of the runs. I would expect for the theme to continue over the coming weeks. Hopefully :)

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Well the charts this morning are all abit of a let down if cold your after. Looks more like spring across the model output this morning. Hopefully might see better runs this evening. 

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Chris1986 Rookie

Chris1986

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well the charts this morning are all abit of a let down if cold your after. Looks more like spring across the model output this morning. Hopefully might see better runs this evening. 

This mornings model runs are quite possibly the best I've seen. If this theme continues Feb is going to be one to remember.

00_384_arctic10.thumb.png.e4dd9d5522a20a

 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Ec32 and ec46 show nothing interesting on the mean. Signs of mid Atlantic anomoly mid February on the 32 which is something Ian has flagged up re GLOSEA recently. 

No sign of euro heights dropping which remains our problem re any cold advection. 

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

This mornings model runs are quite possibly the best I've seen. If this theme continues Feb is going to be one to remember.

00_384_arctic10.thumb.png.e4dd9d5522a20a

 

All well and good Chris posting charts but without an explanation all that will do is confuse members who are learning . 

Do you no what that means ? 

Cheers :)

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
7 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

This mornings model runs are quite possibly the best I've seen. If this theme continues Feb is going to be one to remember.

00_384_arctic10.thumb.png.e4dd9d5522a20a

 

Assuming that a SSW would lead to much colder conditions for us - this is not a guarantee at all, far from it. 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

This mornings model runs are quite possibly the best I've seen. If this theme continues Feb is going to be one to remember.

00_384_arctic10.thumb.png.e4dd9d5522a20a

 

To be fair Chris a SSW does not guarantee cold for the UK. It all depends on how the northern hemisphere sets up after the warming - we could still end up mild. 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

As has been clear for some days the regrouping of the PV has been the trend and the other was waves of heights coming from the SW/S. These remain the main drivers for the UK. The ECM did its normal bias when it spotted this trend and over blew heights to the NE for a couple of runs but as with 90% of that output it toned that down subsequently.

Most models are showing four waves of energy from the SW within the 10 day charts so as GFS has been suggesting for a while, the potential for a drier period, biased to the south, London:

569de0c560e86_graphe3_1000_306_141___Lon

As for the heights, they do appear to now look like they will sustain a MLB rather than a HLB but this could lead to a cooler continental flow for some, but initially from Friday as the first ridge builds in a return to generally milder conditions. However too early to be confident of the evolution with changes likely, and shortwave developments that could allow heights to build slightly further north.

So a holding pattern similar to Nov/Dec with sustained Euro heights and a trop PV still showing it's teeth:

569de32e14c7b_ECH1-240(5).thumb.gif.31be569de32f60721_gfsnh-0-240(7).thumb.png.5569de3313dd9c_gemnh-0-240(6).thumb.png.c

^^^The three main models at D10, similar themes, just variations of. The worrying synoptic is a flat upstream so very low potential for the Azores heights to build further north and obviously a PV piece to the NW. 

With regard to the SSW this if it happens will be mid Feb onwards and as we saw with this recent amplification, the core cold and snow was too far east, patterns tend to repeat in Winter and there is a much if not more of a chance that the spilling of cold will again evade our little island, so don't bank on a cold wintry Feb/March just yet.

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Gustywind Enthusiast

Gustywind

Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
Posted

I still remember Feb 09, we had a week of cold at the time of the ssw and proclamations that we ain't seen nothing yet, but the rest of the winter was mild as a bit of residual vortex hung around Greenland. 

It just improves your chances re:cold, no guarantees of it.

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