Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[mb018538]

That chart above obviously comes with a massive disclaimer! Still looking likely we're going to see a spell of above average temps again for a while....after that who knows. Doesn't look like going full on turbo jet like December, so we're already one ste ahead in that regard!

[bluearmy]

Whilst a return to mobility looks pretty well nailed on for our part of nw Europe in a weeks time, there remains the chance that the euro high could be more sceuro which could bring a continental flow to the se of the UK and possibly further n and west.  Add to that the possibility that a sceuro ridge could be more Scandi than sceuro and we can't completely write off the chance of a cold easterly/soueaster . 

Finally, the 12z run today offers the final chance that the pattern could undercut again day 3/4 and re Inforce the ridge to our North . Would be a flip of gargantuan proportions but you couldn't dismiss it completely. 

[wishingforsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst a return to mobility looks pretty well nailed on for our part of nw Europe in a weeks time, there remains the chance that the euro high could be more sceuro which could bring a continental flow to the se of the UK and possibly further n and west.  Add to that the possibility that a sceuro ridge could be more Scandi than sceuro and we can't completely write off the chance of a cold easterly/soueaster . 

Finally, the 12z run today offers the final chance that the pattern could undercut again day 3/4 and re Inforce the ridge to our North . Would be a flip of gargantuan proportions but you couldn't dismiss it completely. 

Yes. Despite the mobility, at the same time the 'Sceuro' offers more benign, milder but drier weather as well as the inevitable rain, but as the pros seem to be predicting, not the full on 'turbo jet' storm assault pattern that dominated November and December. Then beyond that, strat warming seems to be gaining notable ground in the reliable timeframe now, along with the possibility of another stronger, reinforced block forming over the UK for end of January/Feb.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

 

 

I maybe wrong but those GFS ensembles look as cold as I have seen them recently in the mid range with a number already pushing back down to the -5 bracket as early as next Sunday and then many of them breaching that threshold around the 10 day range.

There are at least 2 ensembles that breach the -10 threshold as well so if anything the ensembles are trending colder.

Indeed taking the GFS ensembles at face value (dangerous I know!) I certainly can't see any genuinely protracted mild weather on the horizon - more like a return to less cold or average conditions followed by a colder trend again towards the end of week two.

Interesting times for sure...

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Yes. Despite the mobility, at the same time the 'Sceuro' offers more benign, milder but drier weather as well as the inevitable rain, but as the pros seem to be predicting, not the full on 'turbo jet' storm assault pattern that dominated November and December. Then beyond that, strat warming seems to be gaining notable ground in the reliable timeframe now, along with the possibility of another stronger, reinforced block forming over the UK for end of January/Feb.

More transitional mild while we wait for the pattern to reamplify. The GEFS mean shows the strengthening on the trop PV over western Greenland at day 8

Then well into FI I know but has the PV weaker as a whole with ridging in our sector and cold re-entering Europe from the NE.

It is the mean so details and that are ironed out but after the increased mobility over the next week or so I'm all game for yet another role at the dice.

[MKN]

Just now, cyclonic happiness said:

so is there any new about tonight,s 'snow event' it's difficult to tell by the precipitation charts?

There is no snow event as such, The precip wont make it this far and any that does wil be light patchy and not guarenteed to be wintry either. Best hope now is that the last gfs run is the start of a trend with the high pressure gaining strength to our east/north east and reintroducing the cold air. People have said theres good agreement on the atlantic moving in however it was only around thursday when the atlantic was suppose to move in on monday, This is now friday before it takes hold properly. 

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by phil nw.
reduced long quote

[bryan629]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst a return to mobility looks pretty well nailed on for our part of nw Europe in a weeks time, there remains the chance that the euro high could be more sceuro which could bring a continental flow to the se of the UK and possibly further n and west.  Add to that the possibility that a sceuro ridge could be more Scandi than sceuro and we can't completely write off the chance of a cold easterly/soueaster . 

Finally, the 12z run today offers the final chance that the pattern could undercut again day 3/4 and re Inforce the ridge to our North . Would be a flip of gargantuan proportions but you couldn't dismiss it completely. 

A fairly timely post BA... i can see where you are coming from.. 

The CFS laughable as it is , advertises your thoughts quite clearly here... but like you say a long shot, but in weather terms stranger things have happened too... and still with model instability continuing.. certainly cannot be ruled out 

 

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Feeling like winter has ended already after thursday as most of the charts are showing the hot air coming up and staying for a long time

[chapmanslade]

7 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Feeling like winter has ended already after thursday as most of the charts are showing the hot air coming up and staying for a long time

Really ? Hot air ? Under high pressure at this time of year it would be cold at the surface even if the 850's are warmer.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

8 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Feeling like winter has ended already after thursday as most of the charts are showing the hot air coming up and staying for a long time

Not seen any 'hot' air shown over the UK within the models let alone any long lasting hot air?!

General consensus looking at the models seems like a probable return to average conditions and then the possibility of much colder weather returning as we head towards February?

[Nouska]

9 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Feeling like winter has ended already after thursday as most of the charts are showing the hot air coming up and staying for a long time

Don't be fooled by oranges at this time of year - that is not warm at the surface. Theta E charts best for this situation.

[North East Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Feeling like winter has ended already after thursday as most of the charts are showing the hot air coming up and staying for a long time

Come on! We may have to endure a spell of slightly warmer weather, but we still have potentially two months to see another colder spell. Models are changing on a hourly basis. 

Looking ahead I would feel quietly confident of a more substantial spell in Febuary, especially after listening to the comments in the strat thread and a possible continuing attack on the strat vortex in the coming weeks.

I think a return to mobility and a reinvigorated vortex was always on the cards, before hopefully the pieces fall in our favour

[Nouska]

On the subject of cold air hanging on - ARPEGE was least progressive at 96 hours  

GFS 06 takes a small step in that direction ... CF 00Z to 06Z

     

 

[mike Meehan]

3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Don't be fooled by oranges at this time of year - that is not warm at the surface. Theta E charts best for this situation.

I like that Meteo Ciel chart - with SE'lies from the continent it should at least be dry, hopefully enough to keep the fog at bay with possible sunshine feeding my PV panels

[phil nw.]

36 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I maybe wrong but those GFS ensembles look as cold as I have seen them recently in the mid range with a number already pushing back down to the -5 bracket as early as next Sunday and then many of them breaching that threshold around the 10 day range.

There are at least 2 ensembles that breach the -10 threshold as well so if anything the ensembles are trending colder.

Indeed taking the GFS ensembles at face value (dangerous I know!) I certainly can't see any genuinely protracted mild weather on the horizon - more like a return to less cold or average conditions followed by a colder trend again towards the end of week two.

Interesting times for sure...

Yes there is usually a spread of around -5 to +5c around the mean(red)line after around 5/6 days so we do often see those higher and low members.

One of the things to watch, if looking for a trend  if following those, is to see if the milder or colder members increase in number as we go forward.

 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes there is usually a spread of around -5 to +5c around the mean(red)line after around 5/6 days so we do often see those higher and low members.

One of the things to watch, if looking for a trend  if following those, is to see if the milder or colder members increase in number as we go forward.

 

Agreed.

I am only really basing my comments on me remembering a rounded camel's hump in 850s showing on the GFS ensembles a few days ago with temperatures slowly increasing during this week, but the hump seems to have now flattened somewhat!

[phil nw.]

A few posts have been removed for adding nothing to the discussions or off topic.

Please remember there are other threads for general chat or banter and also in one or two cases a pm would have been more appropiate rather than clog the thread up.

Thanks all.

 

[Methuselah]

26 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Don't be fooled by oranges at this time of year - that is not warm at the surface. Theta E charts best for this situation.

Indeed. Given stagnant air, clear skies and nocturnal radiation, freezing fog could persist all day, under those conditions...

[bryan629]

This is certainly encouraging >>>>> 

 

Judah Cohen ‏@judah47  5 mins5 minutes ago

If you enjoy winter weather, IMHO the 0Z GFS was as as optimal a solution as you could have hoped for- #SSW and -AO!

[IPredictASnowStorm]

 this is quite a good chart if that turns into a eastly

[bluearmy]

34 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

This is certainly encouraging >>>>> 

 

Judah Cohen ‏@judah47  5 mins5 minutes ago

If you enjoy winter weather, IMHO the 0Z GFS was as as optimal a solution as you could have hoped for- #SSW and -AO!

lets hope it wasn't a trop led solution based on developments post day 7 !

 

[Methuselah]

Okaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay guys and gals - one or two posts have been removed (as they added zilch to the tread) - but, but, but, but - the GFS 12Z is about to roll. So, it's teddies down and pacifiers in mouths, and away we go. 

Let's get ready to rumble!

[bryan629]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

lets hope it wasn't a trop led solution based on developments post day 7 !

 

I hope so too BA... my knowledge of strat related subjects is still in its infancy and very much above my pay grade lol 

i was wondering now if GP`s `Torpedo` is trop led  or strat led.... because some modelling deep in FI are definately tinkering with height rises in our locale.. cfs as shown earlier as a mere example, for instance.

 

 

 

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Better chance for some sleet/snow tonight?