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Ed Stone

South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

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Well I just arrived home to a chilly house... turned heating off last night around 12 mid night and just turned it on again now because oil is rather low and damn the insulation on this house is shocking! :cold::cold-emoji:

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Edited by Nights King

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Stunning evening walk with the dog under an inky blue and then inky black sky. Crystal clear starry skies. Wind has died right down. Saw the gritter out for first time in a long time. Met Office say -4c in parts. Still hoping for a rogue snow shower! Proper winter weather.

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I see lots of excitement at snow prospects for Monday in mod thread but strangely enough the west country is rain :wallbash:

I know it is early and can change but I would rather see that corrected west by a fair margin for us to stand a chance. :cc_confused:

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I'm thinking it'll correct Westward and we'll be in with a good chance, with luck. Not sure the charts are terribly reliable with FI being 48hrs if that, they are so diverse currently.

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Well those showers have been sucked up by our dear Welch friend Henry :nonono::rofl:

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Just now, Nights King said:

Well those showers have been sucked up by our dear Welch friend Henry :nonono::rofl:

For a second there, I though you were referring to Raquel.:yahoo:

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Just had a very light one here, 1 degree showing on my thermo and yet it was rain, no sleet or snow.

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5 minutes ago, MrNooo said:

Just had a very light one here, 1 degree showing on my thermo and yet it was rain, no sleet or snow.

I hope it didn't melt your snow cover? :D

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Further to the lunchtime forecast showing 5c with light rain, Ian's 18.55 forecast showed Monday as 4c with heavy rain with him stressing the big uncertainty. If Ian is reading, do you think 4c (which I assume is the max across the region) with heavy rain was playing it safe?

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Sorry but I'm a bit confused where has all this rain in the near future just appeared from with temps the way they are is this to do with ex tropical storm Alex ?? 

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Oh blimey even Sunday now has turned into a wet dank (yes dank) afternoon. I think the chase for me for being snowed in is done for this spell. Enjoy the sunshine tomorrow and then back to hunting down the next lot of cold weather. Never know I might do a flip tomorrow like the models.

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13 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Oh blimey even Sunday now has turned into a wet dank (yes dank) afternoon. I think the chase for me for being snowed in is done for this spell. Enjoy the sunshine tomorrow and then back to hunting down the next lot of cold weather. Never know I might do a flip tomorrow like the models.

 

I think your being a little premature? :D

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9 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Key uncertainties begin from T+84. It's impossible to gauge outcome on regional level. MOGREPS has snow risk Taunton eastwards for SW/W Country by Monday; WBFL modelling by then considered highly unreliable as for now are UKMO Best Data Tmin/Max as shown via BBC graphics. A concerted W'ly push across all the south Sun night-Mon night only rated 30% prob at present. Rebuild of cold block W'wards into Tues complicates matters enormously. Some folk on forums are doubtless slavishly following/making rash pronouncements based on modelled 850hPa temps as the singular 'snow line' delineation but it's not: the higher Theta-W's will *override* cold boundary layer, offering a very difficult forecast mix ranging from rain-sleet-snow and, moreover, profiles suggestive of freezing rain in places, too. PPN phase algorithms (eg snow charts from EC, GFS, ARPEGE etc) won't synthesise these nuances at all well - yet - due to their granularity and the ongoing output uncertainty at that range. However, currently a fair signal for fronts generally weakening as they run east, and only a minority of ENS presently offer *significant* snow amounts (these in central-E UK where cold air may linger much of the week, whilst W/SW back earlier to average/above average temps). So, fun and games looking likely for my forecast colleagues Sun eve on into Mon, but thankfully I'm not having to deal with this headache until back on shift later Monday!!

 

Thanks ian.

I am sure I remember snow with 850's as high as+1c over the Mendips a few years back with a cold continental feed in a marginal setup.

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5 hours ago, dancing daisy said:

I showed the kids the rain today site and told them all about snow forecasting, they weren't interested, bloody 5 year olds! I miss my year 6s, they loved a good old snow ramp and radar watching was always on in the background of every lesson.  

So what's the latest in snowville? 

I'm glad I'm not the only one who treats their pupils to snow watching!!

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Not expecting much for us down south over the next few days, but I have a feeling late January early February our time will come.

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Not accurate as many say, but the SW looks like tomorrow night may have a chance of a little snow on the latest run - a bit better than the last run anyway.

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Edited by Ali1977

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And Monday's front doesn't quite get beyond Bristol , if this front does get over towards central England, then gets pushed back some of us may get a very snowy Monday - I hope.

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1 hour ago, Nights King said:

 

I think your being a little premature? :D

:).....well after fergies post I might reconsider... (must say what a top chap for posting in here)

Edited by festivalking

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Why is the rain:snow line always on the same NW-SE trajectory?

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Even in the middle of a high pressure, I get forecast rain. Bugger off, I want the frost that has been promised for Sunday night.

Temperature not getting below freezing here so far this evening for some inexplicable reason.

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34 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Why is the rain:snow line always on the same NW-SE trajectory?

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Even in the middle of a high pressure, I get forecast rain. Bugger off, I want the frost that has been promised for Sunday night.

Temperature not getting below freezing here so far this evening for some inexplicable reason.

I'm just down the road from you and we dipped below freezing about 6pm, but warmed up an hour later. We do seem to be the land weather forgets. Except frost.

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oooh! Starting to think we may get some snow at centerparcs then! Unless the models flip yet again overnight (most likely scenario) I'm bloody freezing here in our cabin, must go and buy logs for the fire tomorrow :cold:. This certainly is a very interesting period of model watching... Jeez.. It's like me on the rapids earlier..

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16 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm just down the road from you and we dipped below freezing about 6pm, but warmed up an hour later. We do seem to be the land weather forgets. Except frost.

We got down to -0.5c earlier but now 0.3c as cloud moved in. 

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Bristollians would take this :spiteful: 

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