Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:

Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Jan 2016 to Friday 5 Feb 2016:

The strongest signal for the period is generally unsettled conditions with winds mainly coming from the west. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, interspersed by some dry and brighter interludes. The rain being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west where rainfall totals are likely to be above average. The south and east should be more sheltered, getting the best of the drier and brighter interludes, so rainfall totals here may by slightly below average. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little above average for most areas, but further cold spells are possible.

Updated at: 1357 on Thu 7 Jan 2016

 

LOVE DARREN BETTS

Seems more like an Ian Brown forecast!

[snefnug]

BBC online forecast just now..  Helen Willetts rain clearing Scotland, colder, snow Scotland & N.England.  "potential change next week for more settled weather". Not colder, snowier or icier next week, just settled. Hmm

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, snefnug said:

BBC online forecast just now..  Helen Willetts rain clearing Scotland, colder, snow Scotland & N.England.  "potential change next week for more settled weather". Not colder, snowier or icier next week, just settled. Hmm

Entirely consistent with previous commentary - im always wary until we see metobbc on board- i remember an update i think it was 2010 which talked of drifting snow and bitter winds, or words to that effect, that was an mrf a good week or so before the onset of the cold, this time, little or no mention of even settling snow.

Again, until i see something more concrete from the pros i remain steadfastly cautious, are they waiting for tomorrow runs before a more firm commitment?

[terrier]

Ecm looks fantastic tonight but I remember that ecm a few years ago. Think I will wait for the met to jump on board though as they still don't seem convinced. Still got a sneaky suspicion that mogreps model is seeing things a lot differently to the ecm. But time will tell I guess. 

[snowingtequila]

There was a discussion on radio four earlier about the floods and the cause. The programme ended with a talk with one of the bbc forecasters discussing the weather coming up. He said a change to much colder weather with snow, he said at the moment there was uncertainty how long it would last but that the met office have been predicting a much colder second half to winter consistently since November!

[iapennell]

Looking at the predicted jet-stream patterns, the strongest upper-Westerlies are over the NE Atlantic   (currently near 200 mph about 50N) at present and they are predicted to cross northern France over the weekend into early next week.  Meanwhile a strong ridge is predicted to be developing NW Atlantic to Greenland (effect of colder-than-normal waters in NW Atlantic).  It is certainly not weak upper Westerlies and my take is that this will be coming from north-northwest if it unfolds.  If the strong jetstream remains just a few hundred miles further north and the ridge is less pronounced in the NW Atlantic rather less cold westerly winds will prevail and that will bring (certainly to lowland southern central England) conditions that most folk would not consider to be truly wintry (i.e. some showers of sleet and hail with only ground-frost at night rather than air-frost).

All the same this is remarkably similar to what unfolded mid-late January last year; a few days of northerlies from the region of Svalbard could bring daytime temperatures near freezing point even to the South with snowfalls almost everywhere and with nighttime minima below -5C over a wide region.

[Coopsy]

Being in the south there's something that's not getting me excited about the charts I see and the 'cold' spell. I wait to be pleasantly surprised but wont be disappointed if it doesnt materialise

[edo]

Snow to quite low levels in NE Scotland being reported where rain was forecast until tomorrow evening so a great start to the cold spell that's not even started yet 

[Stormyking]

Thought this may be of used to you guys, we run our own local forecasts but look at things on whole for the UK, we have done a small video about the upcoming cold spell, hope this helps, and those who are still learning

 

 

 

[PolarWarsaw]

Still think there will be snow around next week, just nowhere near what was potentially on offer 48 hours or so ago.

[Average Joe]

16 hours ago, snefnug said:

BBC radio 4 5:55pm weather , Jay Rayner extraordinarily reticent beyond tomorrow's weather. Like I said, before, named storm loads a rain they really go to town on.  No online weather forecast as yet. If they get their forecast data from meto, presumably meto is in holding pattern or know something none of Models quoted on model thread do?

Jay Rayner......???

 

Last time I checked he was a Chef.....!!! 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, DuncanK said:

Jay Rayner......???

 

Last time I checked he was a Chef.....!!! 

It's been an 'interesting' week for Jay: first a sex-change, now a change of occupation. Maybe he can cook-up something cold - gazpacho soup anyone?

[Summer Sun]

Ian F is suggesting the cold weather could continue through next weekend and into the following week

 

 

 

Lets see what the 12z's bring plenty of time for upgrades in the cold lasting that bit longer than what's on show this morning i.e GFS 06z

 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Guys - your focussing to much in the wrong area -

The subtropical low isnt the probleion is the less that digs ( & lifthe high pressure in the atlantic is

There is a 50/50 balance between all the models & indeed the ensembles - so noone can tell...

middle ground is the NAVGEM 00z

 

Steve, I agree,although surely you mean the low moving SW, not  SE?

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Ian F is suggesting the cold weather could continue through next weekend and into the following week

 

 

 

 

 

Lets see what the 12z's bring

 

 

 

They are good updates in my eyes, and on tat I'd expect to see better 12z runs. 

[warrenb]

I read someone saying that Mogreps has the country in Northerlies all weekend, so all to play for.

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No SE

the more energy that drops SSE the more of an issue it is...

s

so do you think this is the "starting conditions" ian mentioned in his tweet that the models are struggling with?

[Gord]

The model watching and discussion really reminds me of winter 2012/2013...even if the weather itself ultimately doesn't.

December 2012 was very stormy and quite mild (though not as much as December 2015). I suppose the big difference between December 2012 and 2015 is that in 2012, the models teased us horribly. To this day, I think it remains some of the cruelest output we've had to endure. 2015 told us straight what kind of month it was going to be via models/forecasts!

By the last week of December 2012, many had written that winter off...just like again in 2015. Then in the first week of 2013 we started to see changes and just like now, a whole load of discussion surrounding upgrades/downgrades/when will the Met Office see the cold weather etc started.

By mid month 2013, things were looking very peachy indeed so could 2016 follow suit?

I am talking purely about similarities between the 2 years on the discussion had on this forum. Some of the weather was quite different. For example, there was quite a mild and settled spell before the cold came in January 2013 and that hasn't happened this time. I think we had already had quite a few early season frosts in November/December 2012 as well but I may be getting confused with another year.

But a lot of things I am reading today echo thoughts on these forums exactly 3 years ago.

(...and some from 2 years ago as well but I won't go into that one while the scars are still fresh!)

Edit: This was meant to go in the ramps/moans thread...my bad..sorry! Please delete/move if it doesn't sit comfortably in here!

Edited January 8, 2016 by Gord

[Liam J]

Latest Met Office update for next week onwards, the bit that said the cold weather may prove hard to shift has gone... Now watch the 12's upgrade again lol

Quote

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2016 to Friday 22 Jan 2016:

A cold spell is expected to be underway around the middle of next week which will most likely last into the weekend across much of the UK. The weather will tend to vary day to day, with some dry and sunny periods, but also wintry showers which will occasionally merge to give longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Snow will fall to low levels at times in the north, but also perhaps in the south too. Temperatures will be below average with widespread overnight frosts as well as a risk of icy surfaces. As we go through the following week it seems most probable that less cold weather will return as Atlantic weather systems try to move across the country bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain.

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Summer Sun]

Change to cold weather on the way

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2016/cold-weather?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[snefnug]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

It's been an 'interesting' week for Jay: first a sex-change, now a change of occupation. Maybe he can cook-up something cold - gazpacho soup anyone?

oops sorry - that's me struggling to remember his surname and brain coming up with Rayner.....  weather and cooking, my two fave topics, other than knitting, it so could very easily have been Jay knitonepurlonedratdroppedone.....

 

[Flash Elvis]

22 hours ago, snefnug said:

Gosh, must be getting serious!  Even the Banty, Ranty, Moany thread is generously donating toys to all and sundry

[summer blizzard]

If the models persist in a downgrade then one does have to praise the Met Office who have consistently suggested that the Altantic will win out.

[Methuselah]

Anyone would think that netweather is a subsidiary of Toys-R-Us!

[booferking]

16 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

If the models persist in a downgrade then one does have to praise the Met Office who have consistently suggested that the Altantic will win out.

Just Yesterday they said this there just as bad as the charts up and down they don,t have a clue also, i have highlighted so if the charts flip again they will to.

The forecast in the last 2 paragraphs is like saying get a coin and flip you choose heads or tails.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:

Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift.

 

And then today they change there tune just like the charts.

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Jan 2016 to Friday 22 Jan 2016:

A cold spell is expected to be underway around the middle of next week which will most likely last into the weekend across much of the UK. The weather will tend to vary day to day, with some dry and sunny periods, but also wintry showers which will occasionally merge to give longer spells of rain, sleet and snow. Snow will fall to low levels at times in the north, but also perhaps in the south too. Temperatures will be below average with widespread overnight frosts as well as a risk of icy surfaces. As we go through the following week it seems most probable that less cold weather will return as Atlantic weather systems try to move across the country bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain.