Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[January Snowstorm]

Well the gfs has the Greenland high too far West and the ukmo too far east. Neither is what we want but of course a middle ground would be ideal.

Forget about telling the family guys this is far from a done deal

[Harsh Climate]

And nick sussex I see exactly what you mean now regarding blocking heights too far west, If it was a bit further east on this run it would be a perfect chart

 

 

But like I said no point in looking at specifics from a single gfs operation run that hasn't been verified by it's esembles. But great to all the big models firming up on the likelyhood of a greeny high!

[bradymk]

Why are some people not happy with the UKMO 144 chart? 

Here is the UKMO 144 from today

Here is the same chart from yesterdays ECM run

So how is that not a good UKMO today? Has stronger heights in Greenland. Only difference is the arctic high is not as close to Greenland as it was on the ECM run.

 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS isn't a good run...that small azores low turns into a major feature and most of the really cold air is kept to the north of the UK and find it difficult to see how any 'decent' cold air can get to most of the UK. No WAA on this run (in the middle stages) due to this...just hoping that the ecm follows suit.

Isn't a good run????? 2 days ago it was showing a 2 day Northerly toppler!! Then westerlies!! 

[rory o gorman]

3 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

UKMO isn't a cut off Greenland high

The ukmo doesn't run out to 168 hrs you said all 3 models? , the gfs and ecm have no to toppler with almost full cross polar flow.

 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS isn't a good run...that small azores low turns into a major feature and most of the really cold air is kept to the north of the UK and find it difficult to see how any 'decent' cold air can get to most of the UK. No WAA on this run (in the middle stages) due to this...just hoping that the ecm follows suit.

 

Sorry but that just isn't true. If a 1050MB cut off Greenland high is considered "not a good run" then what the hell can be considered a good run?! Cold is slower to move in but the heights across Greenland are incredible. 

GFS 12z is an amazing run. Some areas would be absolutely pasted.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS - bloody azores low! becoming far more of a feature and Greenie high less so - something to keep an eye on!

Azores low has never been a bad thing. If anything, the low over the Azores obstructs the heights from collapsing back down to their default position. It has always been a common feature in the best historical cold spells. 

[Captain Shortwave]

So the UKMO at day 6. No sign of toppling there for me at all.

First off the deep low heights over Europe will make a break down via a collapsing ridge a slow process.

Upstream we have a developing nor'easter (Unless I am mistaken), that deepening low will deepen and move up the eastern seaboard bringing another pulse of heights -re-enforcing the ridge keeping the flow northerly for us. Also between day 5 and 6 that ridge is still heading north. 

Of course the last option is this, the high doesn't have to end up over Greenland, areas further east or in an area between Iceland, Svalbard and Scandinavia would be good location for a cut off high. In fact for some areas it would be a better landing spot.

Edited January 7, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[radiohead]

GEM. Interesting 12Z models so far today.

 

 

 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Why are some people not happy with the UKMO 144 chart? 

Here is the UKMO 144 from today

Here is the same chart from yesterdays ECM run

So how is that not a good UKMO today? Has stronger heights in Greenland. Only difference is the arctic high is not as close to Greenland as it was on the ECM run.

 

Yes, im very confused I think it's a v good run we do not need a textbook Greenland high.

[snowangel32]

The only thing that concerns me is the trend over the last 24 hours is to push everything further east and now on the UKMO the ridge is moving to close to us for comfort. We don't want to see this trend continue. If ecm Pushes the pattern further east I will start to worry and could this be what the Met have seen. 

[Froze were the Days]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Isn't a good run????? 2 days ago it was showing a 2 day Northerly toppler!! Then westerlies!! 

Compared to the runs of today it isn't but should we be comparing 0z with 0z and 12z with 12z runs as Mr Holmes always suggests?

Edited January 7, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[Harsh Climate]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

GFS isn't a good run...that small azores low turns into a major feature and most of the really cold air is kept to the north of the UK and find it difficult to see how any 'decent' cold air can get to most of the UK. No WAA on this run (in the middle stages) due to this...just hoping that the ecm doesn't follow suit.

 

Yeh this is just a dismal chart... 

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

Sorry but that just isn't true. If a 1050MB cut off Greenland high is considered "not a good run" then what the hell can be considered a good run?! Cold is slower to move in but the heights across Greenland are incredible. 

GFS 12z is an amazing run. Some areas would be absolutely pasted.

Greenland High isn't the problem on the 12Z GFS. It's the havoc that the Azores low may be cause, driving high pressure and milder air up from the southwest. Though if you like to gamble, it may pay off with a snowfest if you are on the right side of the knife edge.

 

[karlos1983]

Thank goodness the GEM is onboard 

That would take some shifting. I've heard the GEM is better at dealing with heights over the pole? Fact or Fiction?

Edited January 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[warrenb]

GEM was first to spot the dec 2010 outbreak.

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Massive Band of snow For the midlands but not for London

[Alexis]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Greenland High isn't the problem on the 12Z GFS. It's the havoc that the Azores low may be cause, driving high pressure and milder air up from the southwest. Though if you like to gamble, it may pay off with a snowfest if you are on the right side of the knife edge.

 

Depends where you live. That looks a brilliant chart for Birmingham northwards.

[Dr. Astro]

Have to laugh at some of the comments regarding the GFS not being a good run.

Its classic, maybe it's the people who live south of the Midlands? 

Battleground Galore. Atlantic failure. 

UKMO = Stellar. 

You spoilt lot!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

GEM was first to spot the dec 2010 outbreak.

Are you sure? GFS Modelled it in all the way from 384, unless you mean the Nov 2010 initial outbreak which spilled over into Dec, but the ECM EPS and Mogreps / EC32 must have spotted that as the Met office flipped in early Nov.

[Liam J]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Thank goodness the GEM is onboard 

That would take some shifting. 've heard the GEM is better at dealing with heights over the pole? Fact or Fiction?

Deep cold even further away on the GEM! Whilst the GFS has -8c to -10c 850s for for central/northern UK,  anyway we're talking about day 10 and we have differences at T96 on this evenings output... 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Boom! Channel low on the 12z. Midlands up to Cheshire and the Derbyshire peaks would fare best from this though. 

[mulzy]

I think we need to focus on day 4 rather than day 10!

Significant differences across the models - UKMO best of the bunch so far...

UKMO

GFS:

GEM:

[Captain Shortwave]

 

8 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Greenland High isn't the problem on the 12Z GFS. It's the havoc that the Azores low may be cause, driving high pressure and milder air up from the southwest. Though if you like to gamble, it may pay off with a snowfest if you are on the right side of the knife edge.

 

The cut off line there would be the 0C isotherm (The flow is easterly here). So that would be snow north of the M4 then....

GFS you really need to stop being so clichéd. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

Sorry but that just isn't true. If a 1050MB cut off Greenland high is considered "not a good run" then what the hell can be considered a good run?! Cold is slower to move in but the heights across Greenland are incredible. 

GFS 12z is an amazing run. Some areas would be absolutely pasted.

 

6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Greenland High isn't the problem on the 12Z GFS. It's the havoc that the Azores low may be cause, driving high pressure and milder air up from the southwest. Though if you like to gamble, it may pay off with a snowfest if you are on the right side of the knife edge.

 

Spot on...from a nothing feature which props up the Greenland High at a low latitude it now becomes a major feature deepening and slowly moving northwards...which will eventually lead to a breakdown after a spell of snow and turning milder in the south, (really reading too much into this as it's only 1 op run).