Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Geordiesnow]

23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still some big differences between the UKMO and the GFS/ECM with the troughing over the UK at T96hrs.

Strange to see that at just T96hrs. We await the T120hrs, I can't watch!

Even at 72 hours there are marginal differences but in the end could potentially make the difference of how quickly the cold gets here and how cold it will be. 

I'm backing the ECM/GFS on this one seeing as the latter has been consistent on the trigger low being slow moving and the UKMO 00Z did hint at a slower trough so I expect it to backtrack in the morning(would be nice if it was the other way round though).

Far too early to worry about west based NAO's although the possibility is most certainly there I feel. At least all the models are still consistent with the ridging into Greenland which is good too see. 

[Frosty.]

Here comes the Arctic cold flooding down from the north on the Ecm 12z and developing a locked in cold pattern, I'm officially very excited about next week...we coldies have had nothing so far this winter but that's all about to change..soonBoomtastic

[chionomaniac]

Rather more than a hint of omega with the ECM T+192 tonight.

[January Snowstorm]

Awesome ecm locking the cold in for at least a week

[Ali1977]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Rather more than a hint of omega with the ECM T+192 tonight.

Are they a good thing??

[Tony Beets]

Is that a kind of omega block??

[Mark Neal.]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are they a good thing??

Omega Block- 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6135;sess=

Article is from end of last summer. Similar pattern obviously different conditions in winter

Certainly a good thing. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Mark N

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Are they a good thing??

Oh yes, if you are in the correct position and like cold. The omega block is a stable block that doesn't collapse easy.

[Allseasons-Si]

This is absolutely bonkers

 

at 216 -8 uppers across the country with -12 coming from the NE north sea.

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[offerman]

Hi,

Please could you tell me where to find these ECM charts from.

Thanks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Awesome ecm locking the cold in for at least a 3-4 weeks........

That's more like it JS.....

 

BFTP

Edited January 7, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Spah1]

"Some possible signs that the blocking patterns through next week may take on an Omega type pattern"

Just what Matt Hugo was saying

Edited January 7, 2016 by Spah1

[Cloud 10]

Good evening everyone.

 

[mb018538]

Some extremely hard frosts overnight on this ECM run with light winds and a few snow flurries dotted around. Some of our usual suspects will be down in the -15c range in 10 days if these verify! Brrr!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ice day here, way below 0 at night, rime frost possible

Edited January 7, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MR EXTREMES]

this is without a doubt really something heights strengthening ring any bells 09/10 I wouldn't be surprised if a record neg ao if this happens from the ecm

[chris55]

UKMO vs ECM at 144

 

UKMO looks cold but dry for most, there would no doubt be snow showers around the coast and there may be an embedded trough or two, but overall cold and dry. ECM is less cold, but just about cold enough for snow and way better for ppn. UKMO at 144 is actually leaning towards a toppler whereas ECM is way more interesting!!

[SMU]

Well boom town charts from the JMA

& ECM - identical to Nov 2010

3 key ingredients 

* greenland high

* shortwave Energy crossing norway into scotland amoung deep cold

* subtropical energy sliding ENE across spain & france forcing all the cold to the UK

ECM

JMA

2010

S

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

omg iceage

brutal cold wont be no warm sectors worries look at scandi but unlikely very fi

[Liam J]

Very nice ECM, my only gripe is that we never really tap into any proper deep cold with 850's around -6/-7c but that could well change on future runs... Great run though! 

[Ali1977]

Looks really nice Steve, doesn't seem to get really cold 850s in though, is that because it's Northery and not Easterly flow?? -6 to -8 is good, but not that unusual.

[tight isobar]

Well yet again a cracking ecm. The mobile west type a thing of the past,and the return of them in the out distance..on this run. Ice days...hello 

[nick sussex]

 

My scores for margin for error/cold/snow:

Upto T144hrs

UKMO 8.5

ECM 6

GFS 4

Longer term post T144hrs

ECM 7.5

GFS 6

The ECM never really gets any deep cold in, its all a bit flabby with a slack pressure pattern. Indeed the UKMO within T144hrs gets more cold into the UK than the ECM throughout its whole 240hrs.

The ECM of course would be very cold at the surface however I'm slightly underwhelmed by its output this evening. The GFS is far too close for comfort, lets hope that backtracks and increases its margin for error.

 

 

[Nick L]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Some extremely hard frosts overnight on this ECM run with light winds and a few snow flurries dotted around. Some of our usual suspects will be down in the -15c range in 10 days if these verify! Brrr!

Indeed...

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Very nice ECM, my only gripe is that we never really tap into any proper deep cold with 850's around -6/-7c but that could well change on future runs... Great run though! 

It wont matter - 

low heights / still air / -6c air = deep frost & ice days !!!

once were at ECM 240 the uppers are irrelevent ....

wheres the 240 snow chart & t2Ms!!

S