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Captain Shortwave

Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So what to make of it all tonight many will be thinking -

This from the aptly accurate NAVGEM ( more accurate than most for this week )

is the middle ground ridge- my 'best fit' run for the super ensemble mean tonight-

No greenland high but enough to get a small wedge in there to slow the jet....

its pretty identical to the [email protected] 144  ( again just like this week ) both models were a smidge over amplified -so that just to factor in....

image.thumb.jpg.a59ceca20e3785ac56e9670b

S

Nice that Steve and in mid Jan :)Suppose a link up with the Arctic is too much to dream of.

Edited by winterof79

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Looking again at tonights ECM everything that could go wrong did. So I take some optimism in the fact that you'd need to go a long way to produce that run again.

It all started with the PV lobe phasing with a shortwave in the ne USA, this PV then gets thrown ne towards Greenland. This shortwave stops the Atlantic ridge from getting further ne at T144hrs.

Its only the ECM which does this, thereafter it transfers PV lobes from east to west and then has the cheek to stick the PV flat bang over central Greenland at T240hrs.

Not convinced by this and not convinced that the ECM will reproduce this run again, hopefully! lol

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I have done a little squiggle on the 12z 240 hrs gem(for example) earlier with Knockers red crayon and cloud10's blackhole pen:D, to demonstrate which i think GP  alluded to earlier about the arctic height's over the pole,note the big high in that region(black circle),now look around it and note the direction of travel around that big area of high preasure,red arrows(clockwise),how often do you see this,not many,although it is not perfect due to the lobe of lower heights to the north of the uk low,if that wasn't there it would be a stella run

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.2820362c4ba9818429

if no one read GP's and Tamara's posts earlier of which you should have then i would suggest you read them again,cos i have just done,i know we all feel dispondant from the lack of cold and snow so far but reading there views gives me a big positive boost,we have a lot of winter yet(3 month's max),so don't be downbeat but enjoy the ride,as i do every winter whether it be good or bad,i enjoy reading peoples views in here and like some of the whittyness too to the output,keep it up guys and chin up

phew!!:D

cheers

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The stretch is on, the now north American lobe..looks syphened west..leaving the Atlantic pre-lobe (uk bound).heading east/south east...perhaps giving the key master the nod for some decent WAA[email protected]

Just another run though. .ay ..!!???

gfsnh-0-108.png

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Interesting re this change coming up, no SSW is there?  Be interesting to see where this goes.  18z block looking angled better at  t120...SW alert west of Iceland t150

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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That low crossing Scotland has been brought forward about 24 hours, which is quite a significant change. 

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Stronger arctic height's at 1045mb as apposed of 1040mb on the 12z,this is what i will be looking at

gfsnh-0-138.thumb.png.e9be7fbe43eb75eb4b

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1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

That low crossing Scotland has been brought forward about 24 hours, which is quite a significant change. 

 

What's the general impact of this change? :)

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Interesting re this change coming up, no SSW is there?  Be interesting to see where this goes.  18z block looking angled better at  t120

 

BFTP

I think it was evident tropospheric feedback mechanisms were eventually going to be enough to disrupt the vortex which started as far back as Oct/Nov. That's why I was trying to point out the first Siberia high attempt back in November. We saw the 'flinching' of the tropospheric vortex early on before the period of deep intensification started.

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Better height's building over Greenland on tonight's run.

a.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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@192hrs the link will be near...or

Complete. .if so a lot weights on further evolution. 

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Stronger arctic height's at 1045mb as apposed of 1040mb on the 12z,this is what i will be looking at

gfsnh-0-138.thumb.png.e9be7fbe43eb75eb4b

Quite right, something i'm particulary looking at from model to model, run to run basis. GEM & Navgem both keen on big Artic High. BBC weather week ahead with john hammond showed high in the artic.

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41 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Worth reminding that is only 35% of the whole EPS suite!

The mean isn't so different ed

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You do have to laugh at model watching in winter sometimes though. Last week I was chasing an Easterly, now a Northerly - what next!? Probably another easterly! ;)

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The troughing over the UK takes an age to fill and edge east and this really doesn't help proceedings. I think we're going to have to hope that the UKMO has found a T144hrs solution that actually verifies and is the trend setter which going on past experience is certainly not worth putting on more than a few quid!

 

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Just Model Output please, Thanks.

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3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

I must be viewing a different model, at 186 it's flat...Goodnight.

Doesn't look very flat to me, With a cold N/NWly flow.

 

a.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Again, Can we please only discuss the models in here, Thanks

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Can't post darn image....18 z looking mighty interesting 

 

massive reload coming?  No it's a flunk

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Well the Arctic high is still hanging around the place like a Croydon chav, which is good! 

gfsnh-0-216.png?18

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Its goes the way of nothingness. .

But im still not convinced of the American/Canadian lobe sector. 

Cross model has implodes/explode. .along with stagnation'eastward'westward correct. ..the polar heights seem also void of consequence! ..

Both divering with heights either side of one and other. ...

This realy is for me viewing at ita [email protected]??!!!!!

gfsnh-0-192.png

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