Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 a peach as deep surface cold develops in slack air

-8c 850 in england - 

It is a lovely chart Steve. A severe frost under that

-15 certainly possible in places as hinted by Matt Taylor on the BBC just now.

Edited January 13, 2016 by CreweCold

[Ali1977]

Ian F update looks much more positive for the possibilities of cold hanging around, and further ahead.

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK 1/3 Trend to drier, clearer, cold conditions Fri into weekend, before 'messy' attempt(s?) of frontal progression frm W...

W COUNTRY 2/3...of uncertain timing & with potential for snow on leading edge. Higher pressure nearby rest of Jan & still generally cold...

W COUNTRY 3/3... but current longer-range signs for rtn to avg temps early Feb, albeit w potential for cold conditions to return at any time

Edited January 13, 2016 by Ali1977

[January Snowstorm]

And snow into the southwest aka Cork

Fantastic ECM at 120hrs

[feb1991blizzard]

 

BOOM!!!!

Edited January 13, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

ECM at 144 is awesome

[Cheshire Freeze]

144 ECM..thank you very much I'll take that!

That's UKMO and ECM on the same page

Edited January 13, 2016 by CreweCold

[TEITS]

Simply awesome start to the day. Amazing how an undercut with energy going SE rather than E/NE can dramatically change the rest of the output. We could be looking at a difference of 20C in upper temps between this ECM run and yesterdays 0Z!

[Polar Maritime]

Sensible post in here with a little more meat to the bone's please, There is ramp thread open for 'booms' and the likes. Thanks.

Edited January 13, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

4 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Simply awesome start to the day. Amazing how an undercut with energy going SE rather than E/NE can dramatically change the rest of the output. We could be looking at a difference of 20C in upper temps between this ECM run and yesterdays 0Z!

Lol I thought you were done with the cold spell the other day !? It's great to see the ukmo leading the  way , and a fantastic outlook we have , mainly dry the weekend but potential for snow next week ? 

When we see this place this busy so early , it only spells one thing,  cold and middle of winter !lol 

[Cheshire Freeze]

High holds at 168 with the UK bitterly cold at the surface...now, can the low heights to our E and NE sink S to allow a ridge across to Scandi??

[mother nature rocks]

Big low exiting eastern Canada at 168 hrs , coming up against the block to our west. Slider No 2 inbound. Cold entrenched over us as well.

[Spah1]

Next Wednesday according to the ECM!

 

 

No mild South Westerlies there! 

Edited January 13, 2016 by Spah1

[Liam J]

ECM says no to any mild air so far! -8/-9c 850's into the north, cold well into next week. 

[gottolovethisweather]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Ian F update looks much more positive for the possibilities of cold hanging around, and further ahead.

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK 1/3 Trend to drier, clearer, cold conditions Fri into weekend, before 'messy' attempt(s?) of frontal progression frm W...

W COUNTRY 2/3...of uncertain timing & with potential for snow on leading edge. Higher pressure nearby rest of Jan & still generally cold...

W COUNTRY 3/3... but current longer-range signs for rtn to avg temps early Feb, albeit w potential for cold conditions to return at any time

Yesterday's BBC 10 day forecast showed the breakdown affecting parts West of the UK no earlier than before next Wednesday. That makes this a 8 to 9 day cold spell at least by then. The only downside the proper snow-making 850s for lowland snow down over Southern and Central England weren't drawn upon which suggests we could do with lower 850s being forecast over coming runs. I'm picking holes with the latter but I also don't want to raise the roof off in here suggesting otherwise about snow potential. Right now its not so great in that aspect but the longer it stays cold the better.

Edited January 13, 2016 by gottolovethisweather
more understandable perhaps? Time for more caffeine

[West is Best]

The 0z ECM is a cold cold run. The HP rebuilding to the west of the British isles at T168 keeps us in the very continental air. This dominant HP has been a theme cropping up on Met Office forecasts and the GFS has been tending to push back the Atlantic advance, as per its 0z, so this could well be the trend. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Goes wrong day 8 with the high being sunk. However, slightly more of an undercut days 5/6 would see a UKMO scenario for next week and allow the high to hold better, at the same time drawing the NE cold pool further S. An evolving situation at present.

Edited January 13, 2016 by CreweCold

[Iceberg]

Ecm shows the difficulty with this set up, if your a perfectionist. Heights at t120 are just a little to strong to our south which later in the runs prevents too much energy going under the block and so ends up with a slowly sinking high. Meto is far better imho as it allow the extra energy under at t120-140. 

[chris55]

Approaching fronts Monday are a real possibility to deliver some frontal snow. As Ian mentioned one of three options!

Also nice to see ECM on board with UKMO.

 

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Approaching fronts Monday are a real possibility to deliver some frontal snow. As Ian mentioned one of three options!

Also nice to see ECM on board with UKMO.

 

can't see any models that bring the precip further than Cornwall and possibly Devon. The trend from day 6 is generally for precip to make less headway NE.  I wouldn't expect too much from this first system Chris but then working out how this 'breakdown' might play out is proving quite tough for the models.  

[IDO]

Snow potential from the hi res models look low for the next 5 days with the western coasts likely to see showers. The first front crossing later clearly will not be snow (apart from mountains/hills) but the backend of the second front may have a wintry mix.

So more a cool spell for the south as we are close to average so far down here and expecting today and tomorrow to be similar.

Where the cold air and the Atlantic meets next week as the slow breakdown happens there could be frontal snow in western/SW areas but that will take a few days to resolve. Anything after D6 looks like it could be subject to change  as the models are clearly struggling with the block -v- Atlantic setup.

CFS w2 looking similar: 

Hard one to call as the return of a milder flow gets put back on the last few runs. The GEFS are strong from D8 with respect to a wave from the Azores and how that interacts within the synoptics at the time will dictate whether we return to mild SW'lys. Both ECM and GEM bring  the Azores towards the UK between D8-10 so that development is one to watch rather than the Atlantic breaking through fo a zonal flow:

D10 GEFS mean:   12z D10 mean ECM: 

Likely the breakdown is going to be from the Azores High rather than the Atlantic and at the moment all models are favouring this strongly within the D7-10 range.

 

[mb018538]

Yes looking great this morning for a slightly more prolonged cold attack.....though with the azores high finally pushing back in. As is usual wit these cold spells, everything is just being slowed down and held back a tad! The mild incursion is still out at day 8-10, just as it has been for the last 2-3 days!

[Liam J]

33 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

Likely the breakdown is going to be from the Azores High rather than the Atlantic and at the moment all models are favouring this strongly within the D7-10 range.

 

Let's get the cold in first and enjoy it before we start looking for a breakdown? There won't be one if the models keep pushing it back... Some great charts this morning

Edited January 13, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Man With Beard]

So all models now seeing low pressure getting under the High in the north Atlantic ... and though of course this means the prospect of extended cold, it also means a true forecasting nightmare for the UK. How far south will the low pressure go? Will it be strong enough to create a truly cut-off blocking High? Will fronts go into Europe, stall over the SW (snow) or move up through the UK (with risk of a breakdown)? Prepare for even more model mayhem for next week! The UK, for now, is absolutely at the critical juncture for the entire pattern.

With regards short term snow prospects - charts looking a bit empty for the end of the week, but this seems like a classic situation for a late developing front to travel south on Saturday or Sunday, leaving a dusting. Not modelled, but just what I recall from similar charts in bygone years.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Let's get the cold in first and enjoy it before we start looking for a break down? There won't be one if the models keep pushing it back... Some great charts this morning

Indeed, I don't see a breakdown for a good few days after that day 6 UKMO chart. ECM is knife edge...any more undercut and it'd be the same story.

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Ian F update looks much more positive for the possibilities of cold hanging around, and further ahead.

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK 1/3 Trend to drier, clearer, cold conditions Fri into weekend, before 'messy' attempt(s?) of frontal progression frm W...

W COUNTRY 2/3...of uncertain timing & with potential for snow on leading edge. Higher pressure nearby rest of Jan & still generally cold...

W COUNTRY 3/3... but current longer-range signs for rtn to avg temps early Feb, albeit w potential for cold conditions to return at any time

    Quote:

Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

winterof79 replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Winter discussion - includes model discussion

A lot of self induced panic this morning. I see cold and snow for next week.The models are showing a difficult breakdown as the met allude to.As I said yesterday the cold/scandi trough will be back in at any opportunity.

 

I thought the charts looked ripe for this situation. It used to occur regularly in the 70s and 80s.With this sort of set up in the Northern Hemisphere we have to be happy. Mid Jan and all.Some of the heaviest snowfalls have come from the Inevitable Vs the Immovable

Edited January 13, 2016 by winterof79