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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

But the mean is heading in the WRONG direction Chiono?

EDH1-216.GIF?05-0

A day or two back we had a proper Greenland high showing....here's what we have now at day 8

EDH1-192.GIF?05-0

 

 

I haven't kept or looked at the meteociel means for the last few days - though I would like to see the T+264 from 2 days ago that you must be judging that comment on. The mean on the weatherbell charts that I have looked at past this point looks improved 850 wise from last night.

 

Has anyone kept the ECM mean charts for T+168 onwards for the last 4 days?

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In response to the last few posts in the old thread- it wasn't just an ECM op run showing a Greenland high, the entire ensemble suite pretty much hinted as much. I have no idea how to find archived posts but I made reference to the mean and how I was dubious of it at the time. I'm sorry but I have absolutely no idea what the exchange between Fergie and Matt Hugo is getting at but from data freely available to us, the ensemble means point at nothing more than a transient N'ly now- it's there for all to see on Meteociel. A pretty solid degradation in the mean over what was being hinted at 48 hours ago! Yes it will turn colder and yes there will be SOME snow for a lucky few but I really cannot fathom what is showing that is making people feel a proper cold spell will arrive next week- other than a few ensemble members which are lower res than the ops!

What happens after is completely up in the air at the moment (if you'll excuse the pun!)

Chiono- if I knew how to access archived ensembles I'd show you the comparison.  

Edited by CreweCold
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Previous ensemble means and op runs can be viewed in the archive sections on meteociel.

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I think the GFS is demonstrating that we will not and are unlikely to get the hit in one.  For me a 2 day toppler is when the pattern topples after 2 days and a westerly regime takes over.  We aren't seeing that as we see reload one and reload two.  The ECM OP is the worst of the bunch make no bones about that but we are still talking FI.  I think that come end of Jan we will be entering a 2 week pukka cold spell with some very unusual cold temps spilling down from the arctic with polar lows but several bites are needed as the NH aligns itself [always the main target period].  BuT I think that as I have caused AGW my locale may miss out.   

Aaron It has to be the NAD why our northerlies are 'watered down' but this Atlantic cold pool we have may allow something more potent.  For me we are in the balance but not for immediate longevity of cold, but it does look like mild will be off the table at least from when we enter the first bite

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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1050 High in Artic :D. Navgem a favorite now lol 

Edited by Mark N
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Who'd be a moderator...

Anyway, the 18z GFS is rolling now, and ot be honest, the important features have been maintained. There is an Artic HP cell, a rise in pressure from the Atlantic northward, and a weakened P-Vortex. There will be run to run changes. Look at the ES and ensembles for the bigger picture. My hunch and experience says this will be a 3 or 4 day event. Maybe more as we go later into Jan. 

 

Remember, it's only a computer programme, not a design of the future!

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Model Archive. .meteociel

Can be viewed usually far right side of heading ensembles. ..

Click -tap-date....visualise. 

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think the GFS is demonstrating that we will not and are unlikely to get the hit in one.  For me a 2 day toppler is when the pattern topples after 2 days and a westerly regime takes over.  We aren't seeing that as we see reload one and reload two.  The ECM OP is the worst of the bunch make no bones about that but we are still talking FI.  I think that come end of Jan we will be entering a 2 week cold spell with some very unusual cold temps spilling from the arctic but several bites are needed as the NH aligns itself [always the main target period].  BuT I think that as I have cause AGW my locale may miss out.   

Aaron It has to be the NAD why our northerlies are 'watered down' but this cold pool we have may allow something more potent.  For me we are in the balance but not for immediate longevity of cold, but it does look like mild will be off the table at least from when we enter the first bite

 

BFTP

Hi Fred.

I think maybe some crossed wires on here tonight. The first attempt at height rises in the Atlantic looks to lead to a 2 day toppler. This is what is infront of us in the reliable time frame. Yes there looks to be the chance of a second attempt but for the minute this is in FI. Obviously the Metoffice must be confident of the second bite of the cherry hence the exchange between Fergie and Matt. I fully agree that we're headed colder overall- I've been saying as much for weeks BUT we need to see some tangible evidence that the UK is going to be affected as many would like (cold and snow) and personally I'm not seeing evidence of this YET within the NWP other than hints here and there. We will go potent I'm sure but just not next week!

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Hi Fred.

I think maybe some crossed wires on here tonight. The first attempt at height rises in the Atlantic looks to lead to a 2 day toppler. This is what is infront of us in the reliable time frame. Yes there looks to be the chance of a second attempt but for the minute this is in FI. Obviously the Metoffice must be confident of the second bite of the cherry hence the exchange between Fergie and Matt. I fully agree that we're headed colder overall- I've been saying as much for weeks BUT we need to see some tangible evidence that the UK is going to be affected as many would like (cold and snow) and personally I'm not seeing evidence of this YET within the NWP other than hints here and there. We will go potent I'm sure but just not next week!

Agreed but I wouldn't be surprised if there are some 'local' surprises that occur within the timeframe

 

BFTP

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Agreed but I wouldn't be surprised if there are some 'local' surprises that occur within the timeframe

 

BFTP

Oh absolutely. In fact I'm quite hopeful should winds back sufficiently NW with -7 uppers I may even see some marginal snow here from an Irish Sea streamer. However, the snow that falls will not stick around- ground too wet/ too warm from anomalous warmth in December. What the spell may do though is lower ground temps for any further bouts of cold and/or snow. 

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In terms of the upstream pattern NCEP still suggest uncertainty for how the vortex interacts with low pressure in the eastern USA and this will impact that Atlantic ridge.

THE H5 FLOW IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI...BUT DIFFERENCES
REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN A LARGE CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY AND REMNANT ENERGY
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS ELONGATED E-W ORIENTED VORTEX WILL
BECOME N-S ORIENTED WITH A COLDER AIRMASS DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS VORTEX WILL
THEN MEANDER ABOUT ERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NOT MUCH HAS BEEN RESOLVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A FAIR DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE FORECAST DETAILS THIS WEEKEND. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED...BUT UNTIL THINGS ARE BETTER RESOLVED
PREFER NOT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
 

Although there are obviously some much better ECM ensembles than the operational run something has to give here and lets hope its the operational run!

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice post chino - liking the look of those anomalies very muchly !!!:cold:

Worth reminding that is only 35% of the whole EPS suite!

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The one thing I don't see across the ECM suite is the Atlantic ridge toppling, whilst the ECM operational is pretty poor in the 7-10 range, it is more because of a poorly aligned Atlantic ridge, it has become rounded which allows a milder flow to push into the UK as opposed to polar maritime or arctic maritime air to affect the UK.

ECH1-144.GIF?05-0ECH1-192.GIF?05-0ECH1-240.GIF?05-0

We can see the lowest heights running over that high, once that clears towards the trough already pushing through eastern Europe then we would need another ridge starting to form in the Atlantic which should allow the trough to our east to back westwards again to allow cold air to push through the UK again. As others have said the ECM op is one of the poorest members in the 7-10 day range in the suite with good support for something better.

EDH101-144.GIF?05-0EDH101-192.GIF?05-0EDH101-240.GIF?05-0

Pub run is coming out now, lets hope for an improvement in the GFS suite before bed time.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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So what to make of it all tonight many will be thinking -

This from the aptly accurate NAVGEM ( more accurate than most for this week )

is the middle ground ridge- my 'best fit' run for the super ensemble mean tonight-

No greenland high but enough to get a small wedge in there to slow the jet....

its pretty identical to the [email protected] 144  ( again just like this week ) both models were a smidge over amplified -so that just to factor in....

image.thumb.jpg.a59ceca20e3785ac56e9670b

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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