Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[snowangel32]

Can't believe this is not sorted out now as it enters the reliable two totally different evolutions UKMO badly trying for the Greenland high, while in the other corner we have gfs backing the Atlantic and wanting to flatten our lovely ridge. There's only one thing for it Fightttttttt. 

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Day 5

GFS

Heh, this run is pushing the cold air out even quicker.

UKMO

Pretty similar to this morning. A clean north to north west flow with a strong Atlantic ridge.

The story is dragging on longer than an American drama series which never ends.

The recent Met update seems to side with the UKMO output.

[Eskimo]

If you're a seasoned model watcher, you'll notice that the models can and will be completely different to one another when the hemispheric pattern changes dramatically. In layman's terms, it's just a catch up game for some models. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[Aaki Khan]

T120 Gem. Looking Good

[snowice]

The only hope at 6 days on verification stats ECM is tops!

Edited January 10, 2016 by snowice

[Mark Bayley]

Some agreement between the GEM and UKMO at T120. The GFS so far on its own!

Edited January 10, 2016 by Mark Bayley

[terrier]

Still think the gfs is barking up the wrong  tree here. Think I will back the euro output here as they are much better in the overall reliability stakes. There is a reason the ecm is the top model. Still expect gfs to back down in next 24 hours. 

[doctor32]

  gem going the same way as ukmo too  @144

 

incoming easterly here.

Edited January 10, 2016 by doctor32

[weather eater]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I can't fully remember now, but didn't 2010 have many of the models disagreeing with each other and then finally agreeing at the last moment to just keep extending the cold. The hemispherical synoptics are very similar, so perhaps will pan out a similar way?

 

No the GFS picked it up way out and stuck with it. The ECM picked it up later and dropped it a couple of times. before finally settling down. Of course The GFS had several different ideas about the evolution but they were all cold.

[Ali1977]

GEM + UKMO vs GFS.....I reckon ECM will sit on the fence and show something in the middle...

GEM produces a very cold high after the weekend, some severe frosts in that, although quite dry which is good.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Ali1977

[igloo]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Does anyone get the feeling that the GFS model could end up being correct? pessimistic I know but I just don't understand how it can be so different compared to other models. Either that or it's completely off the mark.

i dont think so the GFS  has a long history of being very progressive in this type of setup look at the difference between the UKMO,GEM ,GFS  its on its own at 120h

[Altostratus]

Another good run from UKMO and given the position of that low, I don't think it would topple either. I wouldn't be surprised if we are witnessing the classic GFS over-progressive bias here. A high just to the north of the UK looks likely, with hints of drawing in colder air from the East.   

[Aaki Khan]

3 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

  gem going the same way as ukmo too  @144

 

incoming easterly here.

Gone  better than the Ukmo. -8 along the whole east coast here. 

[Cloud 10]

GEM 850's at 144 hrs...

 

 

Is anybody having fun yet?

Edited January 10, 2016 by Cloud 10

[Ice Day]

GEM at 144 is a corker, incoming easterly and already cold uppers in place

Uppers of -8 across the whole country at 156hrs

 

Let's hope it's getting it right

 

[snowice]

I've noticed the last 3 runs from Gfs has chopped and changed at 120hrs so no consistency? Least the ukmo holding firm!

[Continental Climate]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GEM at 144 is a corker, incoming easterly and already cold uppers in place

Uppers of -8 across the whole country at 156hrs

 

Let's hope it's getting it right

 

Look at that lobe of punishing cold over the mid west. Its even colder than the arctic!! Shame we could never get that. However -8's will do I suppose!!

[weather eater]

19 minutes ago, igloo said:

i dont think so the GFS  has a long history of being very progressive in this type of setup look at the difference between the UKMO,GEM ,GFS  its on its own at 120h

 

GFS is often progressive yes but I don't think I can remember ever seeing the Euros trump the GFS with a blocking pattern. We saw last year and the one before that the Euros go for a block that the GFS didn't want to know about and the GFS turnout to be right. I hope it doesn't happen but my money is still on the GFS. Its a win win, either I'm right or we get a decent cold spell, I would rather its the latter.

Edited January 10, 2016 by weather eater

[snowangel32]

Has anyone got a link for the verification stats for the GEM suddenly it's my favourite model lol.

[Gazza H]

I can see some similarities between the december 2009 charts leading into the big freeze and tonights ukmo @ +144, will be interesting to see how this pans out. GFS is all over the shop leading me to give it a serious case of ignoring until the cold actually hits.

ukmo +144

file:///Users/imachome/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-10%20at%2016.34.01.png

dec 2009 

file:///Users/imachome/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-10%20at%2016.37.21.png

Edited January 10, 2016 by Gazza H
screen shots never attached

[Methuselah]

Not for the first time, this is not the thread for discussing MetO updates. Please follow the guidelines.

[Froze were the Days]

Does anybody think the energy coming out of The States between 96-120z on the UKMO looks a bit strange? the low seems to fill in situ after 96z just as you'd expect it to deepen (and that's when there is more of a link with the Greenland High and Atlanti ridge), hope I'm wrong though. Interesting how GEM is now a model of choice as it's showing the right synoptics any other time it's disregarded.

[chris55]

UKMO is a peach of a run tonight along with GEM. However we can not ignore the GFS. I think the differences between the UKMO and GFS are really beginning to spread out tonight. The differences at 120 are huge! Luckily we have GEM on board with UKMO, even better actually. 

UKMO 120

GFS

 

With such disagreement at 120 we simply can not make call on which model is right. Lets just hope GFS is wrong eh!

[Mark Bayley]

7 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Has anyone got a link for the verification stats for the GEM suddenly it's my favourite model lol.

Here 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

GEM is fourth, ECM ranks highest at all days, UKMO and GFS very close (0z 500hpa)

I find the GEM flips around significantly, certainly when comparing the daily runs

Edited January 10, 2016 by Mark Bayley

[Liam J]

This is the first full winter for the GFS after it's upgrade 12 months ago, perhaps it's over progressive bias still remains? Even the GFS parallel (6z) ends up going the same way as the current OP and sweeps the cold away after next weekend. Let's hope it's barking up the wrong tree!