Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[snowangel32]

Just look at the PV around Greenland again seems to be forming again but it will proberbly look different again come tomorrow

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sadistic chart of the day goes to the ECM:

Almost all of the USA and a massive portion of Europe chucked into the deep freeze....the only place in the bulge of slightly warmer uppers is the UK AGAIN. Couldn't make it up really. There are also no polar or greenland heights left at all by 240....I mean what has happened in 2 daysto go from some charts showing an AO off the scale to this. So disappointing.

That chart to my eyes looks fantastic a cold high heading to Scandinavia and the beast waiting to pounce. 

[in the vale]

I have watched over the last couple of months as some real heavyweights have tried to find analogue years for the recent background signals and have struggled. The physics engines that drive all the NWP models are fed by lessons learned from analogues. Therefore they are going to struggle to resolve the likely future conditions as there are fewer examples of how the current starting conditions end up as actual weather. 

We are seeing this play out on a four-hourly basis in this forum. Each run is held up as true, and then it changes / fails. No surprises. Most models show / have shown a likelihood of cold of some sort - this is like looking at the ensembles - but the route there is changing constantly. Again - no surprises. We are not in uncharted territory, but we are not in familiar territory either, so the models are going to change again and again until we are into the stressful T96 period.

In situations like this I don't bother with each run (the last two days show that to be completely futile) but trust in the thoughts of GP, Tamara and others not on NW that we are entering a period where we could get something extraordinary, or we could get drizzle. The opportunity for extraordinary is exciting enough for me. 

[bobbydog]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sadistic chart of the day goes to the ECM:

Almost all of the USA and a massive portion of Europe chucked into the deep freeze....the only place in the bulge of slightly warmer uppers is the UK AGAIN. Couldn't make it up really. There are also no polar or greenland heights left at all by 240....I mean what has happened in 2 daysto go from some charts showing an AO off the scale to this. So disappointing.

actually no. IF by some miracle that scenario was actually to happen, that would be the supply of cold that the ensuing easterly would drag towards us. we could then be facing snow of biblical proportions! 

then we woke up....

[mb018538]

I would absolutely love an easterly to follow that ECM chart at 264 and 288 hours! More likely is that cold to dissipate over the near continent as low pressure encroaches from the west. More disappointingly on those 12z ensembles it's now the cold runs that are in the minority, with milder in the majority.

[chris55]

ECM is actually a dam good op run, cold Tuesday, colder Wednesday, lots of snow for the heart of the UK Thursday, and a very cold and settled Friday, Saturday and Sunday with an easterly looming......

Obviously we have lost the pretty Greenland high but that's irrelevant in terms of the ECM 12z for now!!

Though that's just the op run on what is a very varied 12s suite overall.

 

Many more runs needed for a consensus!

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by chris55

[gottolovethisweather]

23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sadistic chart of the day goes to the ECM:

Almost all of the USA and a massive portion of Europe chucked into the deep freeze....the only place in the bulge of slightly warmer uppers is the UK AGAIN. Couldn't make it up really. There are also no polar or greenland heights left at all by 240....I mean what has happened in 2 daysto go from some charts showing an AO off the scale to this. So disappointing.

Only disappointing if at D10 (way out in FI) this becomes a reality for coldies. Meanwhile D4, next Tuesday through to D9, a week Sunday will be a period of varying degrees of below average Temperatures (current thinking 3c to 6c below normal nationwide) and some wintry interludes across a broad swathe of the UK.  

Edited January 8, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Chris K]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Erm no. I'm one of the most impartial on here. I like cold and snow but I'm not in to dressing things up ta! It is game over RE Greenland high......fact! If you want to get your knickers in a twist over a day 10 chart from a model that, 24 hours ago, showed a massive Greenland high through its entirety then go ahead. You'll get nowhere in understanding meteorology with that stance though!

Indeed CC, days 8-10 before the great charts appear...again. Cold weather still coming and there's plenty going on before then, especially with that Azores low and how and where it engages with the cold air. Plenty of interest around, even though our lovely heights over Greenland seems to have deflated for now.

[Daniel*]

44 minutes ago, terrier said:

So we have cross model agreement more or less from the big 3 tonight.Well done to the gfs 18z on Wednesday night for picking up this new signal. Looks like a short sharp cold spell before we're back into the milder air by Friday next week. We see on the ecm tonight what Steve murr feared earlier. And like he said it does now look like it's game over for anything sustained cold wise. 

No this is not true we do not have cross model agreement up to +120, ignore these models if you want all of which have the capability to bring sustained cold.

JMA @120hr                                                                UKMO @120hr                

 

 CMA +120hr                                                    GEM eventually gets there +168hr           

  

[Man With Beard]

Just now, chris55 said:

ECM is actually a dam good op run, cold Tuesday, colder Wednesday, lots of snow for the heart of the UK Thursday, and a very cold and settled Friday, Saturday and Sunday with an easterly looming......

Obviously we have lost the pretty Greenland high but that's irrelevant.

Though that's just the op run on what is a very varied 12s suite overall.

 

Many more runs needed for a consensus!

 

This isn't a bad point. If one just focusses on what is happening over the UK, there's plenty of cold and snow interest for most parts on this run, even if we have to put up with words such as marginal.

Perhaps I should have been reminding myself of what I said a week ago. The PV is rocking around like jelly at the moment. Running through the ECM quickly in NH profile view shows us that. It could send cold out just about anywhere across the northern hemisphere in the next 14 days. Modelling may be completely inconsistent - probably because of this fluidity in the PV - but cold opportunities are going to be flying around left and centre unless the PV can somehow re-organise - and history tells us this is not certain to happen from this point in winter onwards. 

One could imagine the PV is like a "spin the wheel" - it may look for a while as if you're going to land the jackpot, then the wheel spins a bit more than you thought it would - but there's going to be another spin before long, I'm pretty sure.

[chris55]

6 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Only disappointing if at D10 (way out in FI) this becomes a reality for coldies. Meanwhile D4, next Tuesday through to D9, a week Sunday will have varying degrees of below average across a broad swathe of the UK. 

Agreed lol. Ian even mentioned the S word on the points west forecast, though as you would expect he said its way to far out for any details. unlike some of the wild press story's around.

Edited January 8, 2016 by chris55

[Steve C]

9 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Only disappointing if at D10 (way out in FI) this becomes a reality for coldies. Meanwhile D4, next Tuesday through to D9, a week Sunday will be a period of varying degrees of below average Temperatures (current thinking 3c to 6c below normal nationwide) and some wintry interludes across a broad swathe of the UK.  

I'd be really happy with that chart! It perhaps is the wrong ECM day 10 chart to show the cold evolution (others have posted the more appropriate one). FI of course though. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Steve C

[blizzard81]

Well, I have to admit that the models today have driven me to the red wine bottle even more than usual. Sorry new alcohol guidelines, you will never change me ha ha!  The trend today - pesky tropical storm scuppers uk cold via murder of Greenland high. This leads to probably the most messy charts I have ever seen! Closing last tease from the ecm showing possibly the kind of easterly I have been waiting to see for 25 years now! Think I will carry on drinking.

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, Steve C said:

I'd be really happy with that chart! It perhaps is the wrong ECM day 10 to show the cold evolution. FI of course though. 

I'm not stressed over the whole next ten days if I'm honest once we get the weekend troughing to do one. Moreover, I think the increasing signal of a drier phase to arrive eventually will please most folk up North as well. Whatever happens, we can't do nowt about it and what will be, will be. This Winter is now taking us down an interesting path though, let's say that. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Liam J]

9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM is actually a dam good op run, cold Tuesday, colder Wednesday, lots of snow for the heart of the UK Thursday, and a very cold and settled Friday, Saturday and Sunday with an easterly looming......

Obviously we have lost the pretty Greenland high but that's irrelevant in terms of the ECM 12z for now!!

Though that's just the op run on what is a very varied 12s suite overall.

 

Many more runs needed for a consensus!

 

No snow on the accumulation charts roughly south of Manchester and that isn't a lot either away from the Highlands. it is cold with ice days being shown for Scotland and N England, south of here temps range from 3c to 6c generally. 

[northwestsnow]

C'mon guys .

Very cold ecm operational with the opportunity for some snow across parts of the south/midlands as the azores low moves in.   - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

 

I like that run very much, cold cold cold.

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Stormyking]

I like the ECM that looks like it would set up to be a very good Scandi high, though it looks like it would be short lived with a 3-4 day cold spell then sink back in Europe, though it is still 240 hours out there will be alot of ups and downs however I still think the end of January and into February is when things will get interesting.

This to me has a very good shape about it, and would open the floodgates for that Easterly which id take any day.

 

Id take a Scandi High with a raging Easterly instead of a dry cold Northerly, personally in my eyes they are more reliable for the sub zero temperatures and Snow, however this would depend on your location as well of coarse. I would take a Scandi high or Greeny, but the Greenland high is fighting a lost cause. 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

So if there is a post you find is off topic or offensive in any way. Guess what, there is a report button you can press which will flag said post, which will give us a quick route to deal with it. In please do not reply and drag the thread even more off topic. 

Thank you, and please keep civil and on topic

Edited January 8, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[gottolovethisweather]

ARRRRGGGGGHHHHH.

 

Now that's what I call a one liner. Mind you, it was quite informative as to how I feel and us moderators obviously aren't likely to see a quiet Friday night in here then. Remember this - AJ's post here not good enough for some.

 

One tip: direct mail is there for a reason and is a far better option for one to one discussions rather than clutter up the MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread. *clue is in title*

Edited January 8, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

Well well well - it wouldnt be the UK without a bit of model 'Eastenders'

So the unthinkable has happened - the glorious super -AO & -NAO has gone the way of the pair ( latin -Titicus verticus ) to be replaced by something more ordinary ...

credit to the GFS for its consistency WRT the way its resolved the conflict of energy  over western greenland - with the euros off the mark - it doesnt happen often but when it does its always when forecasting uk cold - typical !!

What we are left with is a messy evolution with no clean entry of cold - just bitty features supporting the colds journey into the UK & towards the elusive south coast -

Without the big chunky Greenland high the drive south will be tempered - a bit like the enthusiam on here tonight -

but its not all lost - the fat lady is just dishing up her spotty dick - & theres time before she clears here throat -

We do still have a push south of the cold air of varying degrees & we do still see a push north of the mild air -

Wherever they meet promises to be a snow event -

However as ever the detail is very elusive - looking at the combined outlook just for the cold air only - in terms of its defined progression south - the midlands - up to the penines would be a good place for an early call to the bookies .....

Thats all that can be gleaned from the models at the moment- anyone forecasting any definites shouldnt be taken to seriously...

 

cheers

S

PS I would still take EcM day 10 over the last weeks of projections from an IMBY POV

Edited January 8, 2016 by Steve Murr

[northwestsnow]

Well ecm introduces a 'cold high' after the low has passed and teases us with a pressure build to the NE thereafter.

Very volatile output today and if one has to be honest a pretty big step away from the suggested Greenland height rises- its a shame as that would have been great for us coldies, but alas, its not all doom and gloom.The torpedo is on its way

[Abyss]

9 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

No snow on the accumulation charts roughly south of Manchester and that isn't a lot either away from the Highlands. it is cold with ice days being shown for Scotland and N England, south of here temps range from 3c to 6c generally. 

Hi sub.  Where can I find the ECM experimental accumulation chart thanks

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

ECMWF usually handles cold spells better and has most of Europe in a deep freeze by day 10, wouldn't take much to shift that further west and put us cold lovers in paradise. #ThinkingPositive

[PolarWarsaw]

Well, it pains me to say but today has been a dreadful day for a prolonged period of cold. Obviously the ECM dangles another carrot, but frankly, anyone chasing that right at this moment has serious will power - I can't be bothered to chase another carrot, another garden path right now. There is no way of dressing it up unfortunately, what has gone from a potentially memorable cold spell has downgraded to a regular chilly spell, cold dry days and chilly nights. 

Something may push in from the East thereafter, but I wouldn't be confident putting a single penny on any of it, especially considering the GFS (the constant trend spotter)  didn't want much to do with it on the 12z. 

Once again, every single thing possible that could have gone wrong with the cold weather getting to the UK - has. I love everything GP has to say, trust him more than anybody on the site in terms of predicting how things can and might change with the atmosphere on this site - however, Steve's point wrt to shortwaves and patterns are spot on. You can have no Vortex and high pressure everywhere around the northern hemisphere, but if you have a shortwave diverting your fun, then it doesn't matter one single jot. 

Have a good one folks.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All ! Are you throwing the towel in for cold even before the cold comes in? I hope not! Models wobble more than a drunken bloke walking home....when it comes to cold and even heat! The look at T+144 from both Ecm and Gfs shows cold and snow potential  but in different formats.! Just look at the difference between gfs and ecm at T+144, Ecm at this stage screams some serious snow for southern Britain....

[Catacol]

Hehe - interesting, isnt it? Taking the NH view at 10 days our models havent got a scooby. 

GEM holds the GH and maintains the Euro trough:

 

GFS reverts to type with a rebuilt Euro High and low pressure over Greenland:

And ECM goes for a ridge building up in Scandy with a trough ready to scoot west through Europe:

 

It's laughable really that so much passion is expended on this forum on a day like this, when it is so clear that a pattern change is occurring and the models are quite clearly all over the place. 

In addition all 3 models have significant differences in how they are modelling the MJO going forward, with the difference between GFS and the others being massive. If GFS out on its own has correctly modelled the strength of the MJO as it does a loop the loop and remains in phase 8 then ultimately the outlook is far from good as this would suggest the rebirth of the Euro High...

 

But the other 3 models, backed up by text I've just read from the Aussie Met, suggest a decline in the MJO with a movement towards the COD whether it be phase 8, 1 or even 2. 

I'm not buying the GFS interpretation. Cant see a Euro high returning, and as such I'm not too concerned tonight. It's all fascinating watching.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Catacol