Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Yes i know,i was just about to edit my poat about,but i would not worry at this stage,plenty of time for them to flip back as they do.

Ive edited mine now, there isn't a massive difference actually, the size of the scale is different and I overreacted, ive edited my original reply.

[Geordiesnow]

Got to say one thing is being overlooked a bit is just how wet potentially NE Scotland could be during the next few days, especially tomorrow into Friday and more likely Sunday also, definately not good news for sure although ironicially if that trigger low can be a bit further Eastwards like the UKMO, hopefully the colder air will come in a bit quicker and start turning that rain into snow or have the PPN clearing NE Scotland quicker than it is forecast at the moment. 

[Mucka]

18z more in line with the Euros with trough a little further South and East, cold air rolling South from here.

I'd prefer the ridge  further East though

Edited January 6, 2016 by Mucka

[tight isobar]

Quite amazingly this could end up run of the day!  

Nicer guide alignment could Aid in sharper more defined WAA...

And earlier! 

[Met4Cast]

WAA beginning to initiate, Atlantic/Greenland high will inflate Northwards from this point onwards. Stella run incoming!

[summerplume18]

Small changes from the 18z. Trough slightly further east. WAA faster into Greenland at 108hrs. 

[Ice Day]

Comparison of ECM vs GFS at 120hrs.  WAA further up the west side of Greenland on the GFS which looks a potential upgrade to my eye!?

[chionomaniac]

So 0ºC 850 hPa isotherm exits the UK around mid afternoon tomorrow............not to return for a long time I bet

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

18z more in line with the Euros with trough a little further South and East, cold air rolling South from here.

Indeed, something I want too see, not quite perfect though and unfortunately on this run, not enough to remove any PPN from NE Scotland either, it could be quite a weather event here if that low stays too close to the UK but hopefully the GFS will trend more towards the Euros in the morning in that respect. 

At 126 hours, not an awful lot of change apart from slight variation as you would expect, be interesting what it will produce from hear on in. 

[radiohead]

Have noticed the ridge become a bit narrower on the past two GFS runs. Hmmm. 

[Methuselah]

But it is a potentially wonderful synopsis; so wonderful it's nigh-on impossible to report on the models without inadvertently ramping...I just can't see anything getting in the way of the cold plunge! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Daniel Smith said:

WAA beginning to initiate, Atlantic/Greenland high will inflate Northwards from this point onwards. Stella run incoming!

Yes better ridging, I think you need a sharp and thin enough wedge to slice through the vortex but just wide enough to avoid the 2 areas of troughing engaging with each other - this could be one of the steller runs in the history of this thread.

[Allseasons-Si]

Could this long wave be cut off by the Russia block and the Atlantic block?

a possible NE/easterly down the line.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18z looking quicker t132 was t150 on 12z,  Run is in the bag, back in the morning

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

Surely an METO upgrade tonight, this event isn't in the realms of FI anymore....maybe they still aren't sure on longevity just yet.

[karlos1983]

850 -5 line clearing the English Channel 18 hours earlier on the 18z compared to the 12z GFS. Cold in quicker. Happy 

 

[Mark Neal.]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Surely an METO upgrade tonight, this event isn't in the realms of FI anymore....maybe they still aren't sure on longevity just yet.

Watching BBC Weather for Week ahead hinted at weather models agreeing now, but timing still uncertain, John Hammond did say longetivty was undecided.

GFS 18Z looking good so far. small upgrades in short term  

[karlos1983]

Hmm is the greeny high getting cut off from the Atlantic ridge now ?

Edited January 6, 2016 by karlos1983

[swilliam]

Looks a bit west based this one - hope I am not worrying too much - in any case it will be different tomorrow

[feb1991blizzard]

There is a danger here looking at the flow around SW Greenland that we end up with SWerlies at around 240, hope not but.....

[radiohead]

Hopefully this skinnier and more westward ridge isn't a trend. Don't like the look of it.

Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run plays out now. 

[January Snowstorm]

Messy enough evolution on the 18z.

More snow but high risk.

I wonder is the atlantic cold pool starting to help us out a bit? Very little modification in the northwesterly wind

[Geordiesnow]

Well I'm happy with this run, slight differences in terms of the ridging which is expected and a slightly more positive trend towards the Euro from the GFS regarding the trigger low but effectively, what is showing is more or less the same. 

See what tomorrow morning runs bring, will be interesting. 

[Ali1977]

Yeah didn't expect it to look wrong this early, still shows some volatility in the outlook...still, let's wait and see

 

we need the WAA to kick in again like it did on the 12z

Edited January 6, 2016 by Ali1977

[johnholmes]

this NOAA anomaly shows that little marked change is likely out to at least 20 January, ridge and trough positions

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

NOAA and ECMWF-GFS have been consistent with this idea now for around 3 days. It is rare when they show this consistency cross model and timewise that the predicted upper flow does not occur over the time scales shown.