Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[chris55]

I don't do an OMG chart very often, or ever actually but....OMFG! lols

 

 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, cornish snow said:

We're not going to call this "That ECM 2" are we?

remember what happened last time.

I'll take early model watching retirement if it switches

[TomDav]

Epic ECM run, especially with the low diving into southern europe

 

[Harsh Climate]

And here's something else into the mix, I have never seen charts anywhere close to the ECM come off in mid january, always late februrary at best. If we can keep this momenum going for a true greenland high, we could be on the cusp of something very special!

[P-M]

What are we classing as the reliable timeframe here and where is FI starting?

[West is Best]

Nice juicy little cold snap showing up now across all three models at T120 and, heck, it has even appeared on Sky News so it must be true.

No-one can say this hasn't been showing up on and off for some days and it now looks pretty locked in.

For something more medium and long term we're looking for that mid-Atlantic ridge to build and hold to Greenland, not merely sink back to the Azores.

[fromey]

There's also talk of a strong SSW coming near the end of Jan, have the models taken this into account or is it something that will show its hand later, I'm aware there's about a 2 week lag time

 

fromey 

[TomDav]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Hi Tom are those charts available to view?

Not yet still working on the website

[joggs]

Things can't surely upgrade anymore.Is this because it could be taking place quicker than even the models can handle.A day or two forward?.

[chris55]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

And here's something else into the mix, I have never seen charts anywhere close to the ECM come off in mid january, always late februrary at best. If we can keep this momenum going for a true greenland high, we could be on the cusp of something very special!

Maybe not in Jan, but I have deffo seen them ONCE before, but that was in December.....

 

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, P-M said:

What are we classing as the reliable timeframe here and where is FI starting?

reliable   when it happens  fl   just before it does

[Southender]

Well I don't think we can really ask for better charts at this stage for our little island.

The odds on what is being shown today actually coming off must be quite remote, a watering down is probably enivitable, but lets hope not too much.

Will the METO be getting the tippex out later?

I would love a guest appearence from Ian Brown right now with a classic "WTF" one-liner....Ian....are you there?...

Edited January 6, 2016 by Shrimper

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

And here's something else into the mix, I have never seen charts anywhere close to the ECM come off in mid january, always late februrary at best. If we can keep this momenum going for a true greenland high, we could be on the cusp of something very special!

Ordinarily one would think the ECM was off on one of its overamplified FI's;

However:

The real MJO signal has just reached phase 7.

The MJO impact in positive ENSO is higher in the North Atlantic than any other NH region.

As long as theres no issues with the cut off Azores low then theres a good chance of something similar to tonights ECM operational run.

 

[Frosty.]

I'm lost for words..WTF I don't know what to say except this pattern looks very 2010 like and we all know how Epic that was!!!! Incredible Ecm 12z which followed a sensational Gfs 12z...coldies cups could runeth over next week and beyond and more stellar runs to come I'm sure

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Looking very good for south east London very snowy on the 21st on the gfs charts

Edited January 6, 2016 by IPredictASnowStorm

[Nigerian Prince]

14 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I don't do an OMG chart very often, or ever actually but....OMFG! lols

 

 

  That chart is for next Saturday(16) not this Saturday (9), so what are the chances of it verifying.

Gender male, location Battersea, London.

[blizzard81]

Is it going to be one of those very rare occasions when the ecm debilt ensemble mean for temps dips well below zero I wonder?

[Singularity]

ECM you cheeky so-and-so... talk about swinging from one extreme to the other!

The most important progress is the removal of the sneaky shortwave +120 to +144 hours, with some WAA straight up to SW Greenland.

Then things get really interesting, as the Canadian PV, having not made that progress east of previous runs, now prevents that strong Arctic High from linking up with the U.S. ridge (below-left). Instead, it peforms a slam-dunk move in terms of prolonged cold for the UK, by merging with our mid-Atlantic ridge to form a powerful blocking high over Greenland (remaining images). That the Atlantic remains totally walled off is another bonus in terms of keeping complications to a minimum - snowstorms from the SW can come once we've had the cold bedded in for a week or so.

 

I must admit that I'm now struggling to keep my head from popping off, despite having seem epic charts at this range go AWOL in some previous winters. Arguably though, the level (and to a lesser extent nature) of 'background' support for this event is considerably greater than it was prior to the late Jan/early Feb shenanigans of last winter for example, and more on a par with 2009/10.

Yes, one can't help but feel that tonight is likely to be the peak in model output that usually occurs when the models have caught on to the change but not yet added the usual complications. Yet with strong enough blocking, those complications - namely disturbances in the flow - can be used to our advantage, as snow generators. This is the true test for a snow-lover watching the NWP output; managing emotions as we make the seemingly very long journey toward the actual outcome, as the models twitch and turn in their bid to figure out the true path.

Tonight's ECM det. isn't quite a repeat of 'That ECM' in terms of the magnitude of the conditions - but in terms of the potential going forward it's right up there. What a day of model watching it has been - comes around most winters at least once (2013/14 was a horrible exception).

[IPredictASnowStorm]

  Great Charts for London With a very good cold spell

[gottolovethisweather]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

reliable   when it happens  fl   just before it does

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Harsh Climate]

So this afternoon we have the GFS, UKMO, ECM, GEM, JMA, NAO, AO, GFS ESEMBLES, MJO all emphatically on board! I have never seen such agreement across the board in all my years of following the charts at such range and in mid January (with shortish days and a weak sun ; ) ).....!!!...... 

GFS 180

 

UKMO 144

ECM 240

GEM 180

 

JMA 192

NAO

AO

GFS ESEMBLES

MJO Phase 7

 

In terms of cold ramping we have just bet the mothers house and come out with a royal flush!! Exciting times ahead 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[gottolovethisweather]

25 minutes ago, P-M said:

What are we classing as the reliable timeframe here and where is FI starting?

Tis best always to use the ensembles spreads in order to define where FI begins by looking at the deviations of individual member runs. Without looking, I'd suggest it lies somewhere around the 12th/13th January at the moment which is which it'd be ridiculous pinpointing specific wintry events at this point in time. Irrespective of all that cold synoptics are a-coming to this little blob of an island. As for my deep cold (broadly speaking about entrenched nationwide snow-producing 850s here) forecast probabilities a day on from yesterday's 60% I'd say they now sit at approximately a 65 to 70% likelihood of happening. GAME ON!

Edited January 6, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[snowking]

Right, so let's take a quick check of where we are.

Pretty universal agreement across the world's most reliable forecasting models for some sort of Northerly towards Tuesday next week (the GEM just takes a little longer to get there)

Given the start to this "winter" so far, we should be taking this with open arms even now.

Of course, it's what is being set up in those frames above though that really piques the interest, here's where the major players stand as of now at T240ish:

So certainly a lot of variation on the theme of Euro Trough/Atlantic Ridge with the ECM undoubtedly the pick of the crop. What I'm trying to highlight here though, despite the excitement (myself fully included!), is to try and temper expectations until we see a similar sort of consistency as we see currently at T+144 at the T+240 timeframes (that of course will not happen at T+240, we need to wait to reel those charts in to a closer timeframe). Eagerly awaiting the EC EPS this evening, but with the means from a combination of the NAEFS/ECM 12z/0z runs, there's nothing to suggest the ECMWF scenario is not achievable, it's just that the EC mean from this morning's 0z shows something a little closer to the T+240 scenario's painted by the various GFS and the GEM operationals this afternoon:

Usual watering-down of ensemble means at such range caveats of course apply. Awaiting 12z EPS with excited anticipation

SK

 

[P-M]

13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

reliable   when it happens  fl   just before it does

 

•  Cheers that has defo cleared things up!

[SMU]

Thanks WIBs

i cannot wait for the ECM debilt ensembles

diagonal line down to -5 maxima !!

 

can the ECM verify ? Well we need only look in one place at day 8 - thats at the vertical advection if that arrives then 100% ( not 99 ) the rest will follow as its one big reverse circulation..

whos got the ECM day 10 AO? -6 i would say...

can we break the record?.......

adios till 930

Edited January 6, 2016 by Steve Murr