Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Heights definatly seem to be shooting to Greenland quicker than on the 6z

12'z

 

6z

Though the Arctic not quite as strong so far, its still there which is good to see

GFS by T144 is 24 hours away from "boom" territory. Only one way forward from that and that is cold, cold, cold. North facing coasts are in for a pasting a day or two after that. "Cheshire Gap" springs to mind.

[Barry12]

Expect the 12z to be even better for longevity than the 00z's, should see a more stubborn and robust Greenland high. I am increasingly confident of our best cold spell since March 2013.

 

Get set...it's coming.

[Mucka]

UKMO steady as she goes and still looks to have potential for snow up North from 96h onward with any snowline steadily moving South

[tight isobar]

@144 gfs 12z

And already poised for the cut through link...@greenland-polar heights. ..

[Alexis]

850 temps 1- 2C lower, compared to the 6z, for most of the country too. 

[Stormyking]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS by T144 is 24 hours away from "boom" territory. Only one way forward from that and that is cold, cold, cold. North facing coasts are in for a pasting a day or two after that. "Cheshire Gap" springs to mind.

So far I am liking this run too, there is a better shape to it than the 6z, it also looks like it could be better for the colder weather to hang on longer than it did on the 6Z

Still looking pretty decent at 162!

 

UKMO though looks better for snow even Earlier though!

Edited January 6, 2016 by Stormyking

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO steady as she goes and still looks to have potential for snow up North from 96h onward with any snowline steadily moving South

Yes I was about to post that chart myself, UKMO is the one to watch bringing in the cold air a lot quicker. All eyes on the 144h chart.

[karlos1983]

spot the difference  GFS v UKMO @144

[warrenb]

It is going wrong by 162, low off the states is positively tilted to blast across, ukmo much better with negative tilt to low

Edited January 6, 2016 by warrenb

[gottolovethisweather]

17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS by T144 is 24 hours away from "boom" territory. Only one way forward from that and that is cold, cold, cold. North facing coasts are in for a pasting a day or two after that. "Cheshire Gap" springs to mind.

Agreed and this is only the start, January 11th/12th is when the cold spell begins, who knows when it ends and how brutal it might become.  Although it'll never please the snow-loving fraternity , I do hope the drier signal holds as well, more especially for parts of Scotland and Northwest and Northeast England.

The perfect cold spell for me would consist of an increasing risk of UK wide snowfall and then a drier big freeze some days later. Maybe, just maybe, this might become a reality. We must still see such tentative signs continuing over the full mo del suites over the next 48 hours or so before its a gimmee though, I'd suggest. Proper Winter is looking like  its on its way. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[VillagePlank]

Here's the GEFS 850hPa chart for Heathrow (6z)

Of note is the standard deviation (the thicker grey bars) This is the range where 95% of the runs fall. At this stage they're all (nearly) equally likely. Caution advised, particularly noting the large increase in spread following the 14th January.

Edited January 6, 2016 by VillagePlank

[Cloud 10]

14 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

I`ve been following the models\weatherchat since 2011 and have never seen it go of the chart like that.

If you dont mind asking, what sort of levels did the nao tank too in 2010?Last time i looked it was only just negitive.

 

The monthly figure for December 2010 was nearly -2 but would have dropped much lower than that at times during the month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Cloud 10

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

It is going wrong by 162, low off the states is positively tilted to blast across

looks good to me

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Yes I was about to post that chart myself, UKMO is the one to watch bringing in the cold air a lot quicker. All eyes on the 144h chart.

Very nice. The only concern is the low to the Southwest, don't want that pumping up European heights as a spoiler. If things went perfectly though it would spit shortwave energy into the base of the trough which would form small channel lows bringing a lot of snow.

[mickpips]

Just now, snowray said:

Yes I was about to post that chart myself, UKMO is the one to watch bringing in the cold air a lot quicker. All eyes on the 144h chart.

Looks like the UKMO is gradually coming around to the GFS thinking , GFS has the whole country in -5 850's by Tuesday afternoon

[joggs]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

spot the difference  GFS v UKMO @144

GFS looks like there could be a small chance of phasing of low  pressure exiting ne USA.Bigger high window on UKMO.

[snowray]

UKMO 144h chart, mmm

[Stormyking]

Getting a bit far out but how about a potential Channel low though, the uppers are just on the cusp for the South

 

Which eventually gets there by 186

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

spot the difference  GFS v UKMO @144

5mb on the euro low sir....a+ for me

[booferking]

Just now, mickpips said:

Looks like the UKMO is gradually coming around to the GFS thinking , GFS has the whole country in -5 850's by Tuesday afternoon

I think it is the other way about ukmo has been showing this for days it was always bringing the colder air in first 94hrs.

[Captain Shortwave]

A few discussed complications regarding that low near the Azores, well the GFS finds an interesting solution with that.

We see a shallow low eject along the sub-tropical jet which engages the cold air moving south.

Result, a band of rain moving along the channel/northern France. Across southern counties this falls as snow.

The GFS overall tonight looks good again, the Atlantic ridge is trying to rebuild again. 

 

The UKMO, well this looks nasty for France

Cold air again is pushing south fast on Monday,

Day 6

A cold but messy day 6 chart, a cut off high in the north Atlantic with other areas of ridging trying to capture that area of high pressure, we also of course have the Arctic high in place too. A lot of be resolved, come to think of it we don't have agreement at day 4.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Captain Shortwave
Never second guess the GFS....

[Fingers]

PV looks a bit more organised @174 with slightly lower heights over the pole. Less yellow too heading to the left side of the tip of Greenland on this run. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Fingers

[Geordiesnow]

I'm content with this afternoon runs, re-affirming the trend of it will turn colder and perhaps showing it might last than just a brief toppler which would be good.

Detail wise is not something to get too hung up about but around 96 hours, I would still like to hope the UKMO is more accurate in sending that trigger low away quickly as it will open the floodgates quicker to the colder air. 

[Eskimo]

Absolutely stunning!! 

[tight isobar]

Indeed chanel low skirting along southern most England. .engaging and if plays out..and verified would drop some fair accumulation. ...!!!