South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Chill peeps, I know this winter has been bad, we are a family in here a team not enemies! Here is a detailed look at tomorrow morning

We will use 6-10am as the time zone

First off PPN... Most important right?

Net weather model.. yes                             NNM... Yes                                              Arpege NO                                         EURO4 yes and no bit hit and miss..                                     

   

 

GFS Yes but this is not a high res

 

 

TEMP 

NNM is cold but only till around 5am after it;s too warm this is a similar story with the net weather high res 

                                 

 

Based on the above do I think someone will see a flake? Yes but if your around 125m + Will it settle? No way...   

 

 

 

Temps and dew points

 

Edited February 2, 2016 by Surrey

[Flash Elvis]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

See the above if you have eyes  

@Surrey well I don't really care, it would just be nice to see in this rather void winter.

proof is in the pudding Elvis.. Could end up a bust for all I know. However the parameters are there for snow to fall to low levels especially London/North Kent northwards.

As illustrated by that WBFL chart snowray provided.

I have eyes............. but some seriously un-trained eyes so if you wouldn't mind awfully explaining what I am actually meant to be looking at it would be a great help to me!!!

 

[Flash Elvis]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Chill peeps, I know this winter has been bad, we are a family in here a team not enemies! Here is a detailed look at tomorrow morning

We will use 6-10am as the time zone

First off PPN... Most important right?

Net weather model.. yes                             NNM... Yes                                              Arpege NO                                         EURO4 yes and no bit hit and miss..                                     

   

 

GFS Yes but this is not a high res

 

 

TEMP 

NNM is cold but only till around 5am after it;s too warm this is a similar story with the net weather high res 

                                 

 

Based on the above do I think someone will see a flake? Yes but if your around 125m + Will it settle? No way...   

 

 

 

Temps and dew points

 

Thank you!! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

Thank you!! 

No worries buddy, kept it brief as I am at work lol! 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well I am not into conspiracies particularly, but sometimes this Winter in particular it has looked as though someone has pushed a switch somewhere! I was watching this Northerly develop on the FAX charts in recent days and noticed the way it got shifted violently East in less than 24hrs seemed just a bit far fetched, it seemed to me that this should have been more of a toppler, but hey, what do I know...

Well now, that's a question, innit?  Given the extreme marginality inherent in the present situation, my best guess would be not a lot...If that is the case - welcome to the club!

[Flash Elvis]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

No worries buddy, kept it brief as I am at work lol! 

Aren't we all lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Flash Elvis said:

Aren't we all lol

We all should be 

[Flash Elvis]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

We all should be 

Ummmm controversial Lukey!!!  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

Ummmm controversial Lukey!!!  

I more meant that at people my age 

[Flash Elvis]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I more meant that at people my age 

We got many 50 year olds in here then 

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well now, that's a question, innit?  Given the extreme marginality inherent in the present situation, my best guess would be not a lot...If that is the case - welcome to the club!

Well even the experts can get caught out of course..

I can always make camp up one of the local hills tomorrow morning, take a flask of strong tea with me, Shooters Hill & Biggin Hill are both pretty local. But at least my little ramp today has given Elvis some hope of seeing a flake or two.

[Flash Elvis]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well even the experts can get caught out of course..

I can always make camp up one of the local hills tomorrow morning, take a flask of strong tea with me, Shooters Hill & Biggin Hill are both pretty local. But at least my little ramp today has given Elvis some hope of seeing a flake or two.

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

I have eyes............. but some seriously un-trained eyes so if you wouldn't mind awfully explaining what I am actually meant to be looking at it would be a great help to me!!!

 

Apologies I get frustrated. 

To quote from @fergieweather: Yes, it's been consistently modelled: this occlusion engages colder (<400 m WBFL) air as it trundles south tonight; some snow thus expected down to about 200 m as it runs across uplands of N England and beyond to N Wales/N Midlands.  From 200-300m, perhaps a couple of cm of snow in places; but several cm likely up above 400 m modelled by UKV, such as across the Peak District.

It is strange he has not commented on London, SE & EA where actually it is not as marginal...I suppose it is whether the precip survives the trundle S and the time of day.

Well the precip looks to make its way towards our region ideally before 9am as higher WBFL move in from the west, WBFL- the height above sea level where the temperature is at freezing point modelled by GFS is <100m WBFL at 6am for your part of SE Essex.... you would have no trouble seeing snow with that. 

I definitely think the hills might get a light covering the downs ect.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

We got many 50 year olds in here then 

Even some of us that own up to it!

[Flash Elvis]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Apologies I get frustrated. 

To quote from @fergieweather: Yes, it's been consistently modelled: this occlusion engages colder (<400 m WBFL) air as it trundles south tonight; some snow thus expected down to about 200 m as it runs across uplands of N England and beyond to N Wales/N Midlands.  From 200-300m, perhaps a couple of cm of snow in places; but several cm likely up above 400 m modelled by UKV, such as across the Peak District.

It is strange he has not commented on London, SE & EA where actually it is not as marginal...I suppose it is whether the precip survives the trundle S and the time of day.

Well the precip looks to make its way towards our region ideally before 9am as higher WBFL move in from the west, WBFL- the height above sea level where the temperature is at freezing point modelled by GFS is <100m WBFL at 6am for your part of SE Essex.... you would have no trouble seeing snow with that. 

I definitely think the hills might get a light covering the downs ect.

If you get frustrated take it out on your Mrs please ...not me 

But thank you very much for an explanation...... although I will have a look at where is Essex we have any place above 100m!! 

[Plough King]

Hey gang missing the snow? This just popped up in my Facebook timeline. 7 years ago today, the last proper snowfall around these parts! Ah the memories!

[Captain Shortwave]

Time for a new thread methinks.

 

New thread here

 

 

Edited February 2, 2016 by Captain Shortwave