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Captain Shortwave

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

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I am quite shocked that i am smack bang in a yellow area (pink for weather type) and I am not seeing a bean, is it because it's just not  reaching the ground? 

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3 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hi Snowking, 

whats your thoughts on February ? A North Atlantic ridge with a -NAO

Hi Shotski,

Broadly yes. There looks to be a mountain torque event over Asia in the coming 10 days or so and this is probably responsible for what we're seeing in the Stratospheric forecasts in terms of warming episodes - I'm not sure we will achieve a full SSW this year (wind reversal in the stratosphere) but I don't think we will need it, with a Wave 1 displacement-type scenario being projected at the moment:

npst30.png

We're making a huge assumption here that even if this happens the tropospheric pattern will reflect the stratospheric one (which has not been too true in the last few weeks or so) but should it do so it looks as though the main thrust of the vortex will be displaced towards Northern Europe/Siberia - prime territory for setting up a trough through Scandinavia to our East. There will of course be questions marks remaining as to how much residual 'energy' is left in the Greenland locale which may have a later effect on the significance of any ridging to our West.

Combine this with the continued high-amplitude GWO forecasts (resultant I assume from the continuingly impressive GLAAM spikes we are seeing) and the ingredients for mid-lattitde ridging are certainly there. Given the expectations borne out by the potential for the stratospheric vortex to be pushed towards Europe/Siberia, and the resultant likely troughing just to our East, it would then make sense that any ridge in our locale would be mid-atlantic based (at least initially - who knows how far North such ridges might travel...)

So having got all of the boring explanatory stuff out of the way....yes, I would go with mid-Atlantic ridge of some kind and troughing to our East. Typical El Nino winter story really with any cold back-loaded.

SK

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5 minutes ago, Dami said:

I am quite shocked that i am smack bang in a yellow area (pink for weather type) and I am not seeing a bean, is it because it's just not  reaching the ground? 

How strange, my location being south of you just saw 10 minutes of dry snowflakes falling. No sleet element to it what so ever 

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6 minutes ago, Dami said:

I am quite shocked that i am smack bang in a yellow area (pink for weather type) and I am not seeing a bean, is it because it's just not  reaching the ground? 

It is probably anaprop (a false radar reading) often happens, especially in cold weather. Means that you need to generally be wary of small clumps. (for want of a better phrase)

Non-standard or anomalous propagation (known as anaprop) occurs when the refractive index is modified by changes in temperature gradient, pressure or water vapour content. These parameters can give rise to a wide range of non-standard propagation conditions. One of the most common in Europe is temperature inversion, which occurs when heat radiates from the ground on clear nights. The ground temperature falls but the upper levels of the atmosphere remain comparatively warm - this temperature gradient being the reverse of the normal negative temperature gradient. The result of this temperature inversion is to duct the transmitted energy along the ground greatly extending the normal range of the radar.

 Link: http://www.radartutorial.eu/07.waves/wa17.en.html

Edited by Sno' problem

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ah that may explain it, thx.

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Looking at the radar I think east Norfolk could be in for a good night with showers forming and pushing off the north sea, falling as snow inland by the looks of it. East Suffolk could be in for some action too going by that lot.

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Temp on the rise here!!  got down to 0.8 about an hour ago now up to 1.2 

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4 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Nappies at the ready!

I was just asking.:sorry:

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Good evening all! Temperature here in Romford on the rise, from 2.3 to 3.3 now..I am afraid that any PPN that will arrive will fall as sleet?

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Nothing here but cant see the moon any more

 

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7 minutes ago, snowking said:

Hi Shotski,

Broadly yes. There looks to be a mountain torque event over Asia in the coming 10 days or so and this is probably responsible for what we're seeing in the Stratospheric forecasts in terms of warming episodes - I'm not sure we will achieve a full SSW this year (wind reversal in the stratosphere) but I don't think we will need it, with a Wave 1 displacement-type scenario being projected at the moment:

npst30.png

We're making a huge assumption here that even if this happens the tropospheric pattern will reflect the stratospheric one (which has not been too true in the last few weeks or so) but should it do so it looks as though the main thrust of the vortex will be displaced towards Northern Europe/Siberia - prime territory for setting up a trough through Scandinavia to our East. There will of course be questions marks remaining as to how much residual 'energy' is left in the Greenland locale which may have a later effect on the significance of any ridging to our West.

Combine this with the continued high-amplitude GWO forecasts (resultant I assume from the continuingly impressive GLAAM spikes we are seeing) and the ingredients for mid-lattitde ridging are certainly there. Given the expectations borne out by the potential for the stratospheric vortex to be pushed towards Europe/Siberia, and the resultant likely troughing just to our East, it would then make sense that any ridge in our locale would be mid-atlantic based (at least initially - who knows how far North such ridges might travel...)

So having got all of the boring explanatory stuff out of the way....yes, I would go with mid-Atlantic ridge of some kind and troughing to our East. Typical El Nino winter story really with any cold back-loaded.

SK

Thanks SK

fantastic breakdown there. 

I also believe Glosea5 is showing a similar pattern for not only feb but March as well. 

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Doubt many will see settling snow, it's mainly rain in the Midlands and not cold enough to be honest. Never know for sure though! Hope those that want snow get it, I hope to see more sun tomorrow.

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26 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

and?

And not being ageist, she is 35 my senior.....

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Heavy snow due to start at 10pm here according to Met Office. 

We shall see... 

image.png

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Uh oh, is it me or does it all look a bit sleety west of London on the netweather radar? Temp has notched up half a degree here and my expectations have lowered. I'm feeling deja vu from that last time I stayed up into the early hours watching for snow from the NW and it arrived as rain.

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Looks like it's another manky night...something wet has fallen, but I don't know what. 1C according to the Beccles weather station.

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1.1oC

Feel Like Temp -

Dew point -1oC

Daughter reports sleet in Sutton Coldfield.....:cold:

 

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that stuff coming off north sea looks like its coming more inland ?

could that link up????

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The ground is still dry here even though I can feel light precip in the air.  Would love some proper snow but our position on this planet means its a rarity despite our latitude, our longitude positioning kills everything apart from wind and rain lol. 

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like it's another manky night...something wet has fallen, but I don't know what. 1C according to the Beccles weather station.

No comment! :D 

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