South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[Kent Blizzard]

27 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

Oh brilliant 85mph in London? Have we had those sort of winds before? 

Please remember that you was worried about the wind storm that was showing befor xmas eve, then new years eve, then the 7th/8th this month and now this is not looking so bad don't worry yourself about the 11th yet otherwise you'll go round in circles and make yourself a nervous wreck for nothing.

Keep that in mind before worrying about stuff shown in FI and not supported across the board.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[amanda2012]

@Kent Blizzard thank you you're right I know u are I just hope it changes or looks less severe at least 

[amanda2012]

Think I've had enough 

[Kent Blizzard]

1 minute ago, amanda2012 said:

Think I've had enough 

It's a week away, if it shows the same this time next week then perhaps treat with caution, chances are it'll downgrade and it will be just another gfs dartboard low on laughing gas.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

Think I've had enough 

Just keep all your windows shut and you'll be okay. Okay?

[lassie23]

17 hours ago, Frosty hollows said:

Thank you lassie. Like all phobias it's irrational. I know I'm safe but it doesn't stop me getting anxious about stormy weather. It's the noise mainly. I do have a room in the house which is,away from SW/W/S winds and hide in there with headphones if need be!

I've been slowly improving over the years tho. I spend a lot of time in Cornwall and I've been increasing my exposure to higher winds gradually including going outside in high winds and driving rain(not as scary as it sounds). The valentines storm was a small set back for me, but it's general progress.

Apologies for going OT btw.

Now as for those birds I was out walking home one evening last week and the birds were still singing at 9pm!!

The birds having been singing  here through the night recently, they are quiet tonight though as it is colder than what we have had recently. I don't remember the valentines storm, was it bad?

 

4 hours ago, amanda2012 said:

Oh brilliant 85mph in London? Have we had those sort of winds before? 

The problem is that the models are chopping and changing so much, it must be driving you nuts. One minute it is cold with snow, the next, atlantic storms frenzy, best to worry once the event is within the reliable time frame.

[Rain123]

Can see lots of showers travelling west-east just south of me, lots of the clouds look pretty inpressive! However, we havn't actually had any showers here yet as far as I know.

[Frosty hollows]

9 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

It's a week away, if it shows the same this time next week then perhaps treat with caution, chances are it'll downgrade and it will be just another gfs dartboard low on laughing gas.

We've seen similar predictions at a week out already this winter and each one has passed us safely. The attention seems to be on a possible cold snap now which will hopefully be calmer. Looking at the bbc 10 day forecast, there doesn't seem to anything too worrying on the horizon. (Thank goodness). Just remember there are lots of people on here who are excited by extreme weather and will focus on the possibility,no matter how small

[Frosty hollows]

9 hours ago, amanda2012 said:

Think I've had enough 

The ten day forecasts on bbc and here aren't convinced anything sinister is brewing. That should help reassure you

[Rain123]

Oh, the suns come out. Lovely!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Humidity has been at 100% (98%+) since 11:30pm last night... 

[Rain123]

Raining now, only lightly though.

[Kent Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Rain123 said:

Raining now, only lightly though.

Nice and sunny here for the time being, had a shower pass through at Midday, more on the way it seems on the radar.

 

[Kent Blizzard]

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Jan 2016 to Monday 18 Jan 2016:

The weekend will be unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow on northern hills. The heaviest rain and strongest winds occurring in the southwest and the northeast, where large rainfall totals and gales are expected. Next week will continue unsettled, with further showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some brief dry and brighter periods. It will become windy at times, particularly at the start of next week when severe gales are possible. Temperatures through the period are likely to be near or a little above average. However, there is the risk of a brief much colder spell at the end of next week, with frost and snow showers.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Jan 2016 to Tuesday 2 Feb 2016:

A generally unsettled spell of weather is expected through this period with winds mainly coming from the west. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, interspersed by some dry and brighter interludes. The rain being heaviest and most persistent in the west where rainfall totals are likely to be above average. The east should be more sheltered, getting the best of the drier and brighter interludes, so rainfall totals here may by slightly below average. There are indications of some longer dry spells later in January, especially in the south. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little above average for most areas.

Updated at: 1303 on Mon 4 Jan 2016

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41

***********************************************************

Pretty much as the models show imo, certainly going to have to be patient yet again, like many have been saying no doubt the white stuff will arrive in March and April for here if at all  ( Snow in Spring is not my Thing ). At least the temperatures look around average, it's a start!

We will be at that stage soon where the Meto Extended Outlook will take us to the end of Feb ( end of Winter )

A positive is the cooling temps in Central and Eastern Europe, just need to blow it this way lol

Edited January 4, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Back to the dull gloomy wet gunk.

That Monday feeling is certainly kicking in now 

[Captain Shortwave]

Some sunny intervals on and off today. We did have a heavy shower an hour ago.

[Kent Blizzard]

Very quiet in here considering the output, I would of thought excitement in the air if even just a tease lol

Edited January 4, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[steveinsussex]

8 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Very quiet in here considering the output, I would of thought excitement in the air if even just a tease lol

Brief northerly blasts are awful for the SE, only good for Scotland and northern coasts IMO

[Kent Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Brief northerly blasts are awful for the SE, only good for Scotland and northern coasts IMO

I mentioned a while back mid month for NE & Scotland so yeah agree with you currently, at least it'll feel seasonal.

Edited January 4, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Ben Lewis]

50 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Very quiet in here considering the output, I would of thought excitement in the air if even just a tease lol

Can't get excited because the models show snow in Scotland and Northern England I'm afraid. 

At least it will feel more wintry I suppose with some frosts making a change from the mild dank wet crap. 

[Captain Shortwave]

I think we need to wait a couple of days to see if the signals strengthens somewhat, but the current model output does suggest a cold flow from a northerly quadrant from the middle of next week. The ECM suite looks pretty good tonight for example. 

This isn't just a couple of operationals as this is building decent ensemble support as well. Still it is 8 days out so plenty of time for upgrades and downgrades. But considering the conditions over the pole with respect to some significant tropospheric ridging and heights building right on top of the north pole then I feel quietly confident. 

Edited January 4, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Kent Blizzard]

Some nice charts this evening for a general cool down and more of a N/NE'ly, like CS says not without support and agreement. Perhaps things will start to get interesting as these charts gradually leave FI

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2016010318/run/cfs-0-282.png?00

Edited January 4, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

The best ensembles of the winter?

Game on -

Kent Blizzard you think back to those ridiculously mild temperatures in December it is notably colder not just a cool down. Scope for quite prolonged cold here, clustering cold all the way out albeit with increasing scatter as you'd expect. A very good day I think, get the cold in place before going onto snow. Northerlies are not great for our region but disturbances in the flow, may give surprise snowfalls not modelled till relatively close.

Edited January 5, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*
Grammar dammit.

[Blessed Weather]

At least we've got some very good cold potential to keep our interest levels up! Hoorah! I personally hate it when all models are showing the same outlook of mild, wet, windy dross for as far out as their forecasts go. That's depressing. No doubt we'll be on the emotional roller coaster for a few days now - with excitement and disappointment as each model churns out. But good to see the Captain is "quietly confident"!! And I'm sure next week won't be the only opportunity for a 'proper' taste of winter!

Wet and grey start here and 7.7C.

[Ben Lewis]

WARNING- Do not go into the MOD thread. 

The ECM does the usual and over amplification towards Greenland is evident but turns  much more in line with the GFS this morning. 

ECM favourite thing to do - except DEC 2010 of course when it first picked up on the freeze. 

The wait continues, maybe a 2 day toppler, but don't expect any snow down here. At least it should feel more seasonal