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phil nw.

Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

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2 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

WIth an update:

 

 

Oh dear the poor GLOSEA and MOGREPS look like they will end up like Rafael Benitez this evening! lol

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1 hour ago, M1245 said:

So with the models looking as they are at the moment, when would we start to see/feel a difference in regards to cooler/colder weather?

 

Tomorrow looking pretty chilly for Eastern Scotland with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing.

 

24-580UK.thumb.GIF.f707071472cb3f549b544

 

Meteociel.fr - Modèle GFS pour le Royaume-Uni/Irlande, résolution 0.25 degré

 

The much colder air looks to arrive from the North at the beginning of next week.

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.8adfcebc4e204a4f9c700

 

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What a tweet from ian fergie!!!!maybe something special is about to happen from a cold and snowy perspective!!!maybe the models are underplaying the cold at the moment!!

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https://t.co/M7akdp5c4g

This update from John Hammond gets particuarly interesting 3 minutres in, explaining about the high pressure in the North Pole displacing the cold air, definitely corresponds with the models!

 

 

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"Computer models are beginning to agree" - JH

Weather for the week ahead worth a watch:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35228964

It can be said decidedly the UK is going to experience a cold plunge the depth of cold remains unknown as well as longevity. Again not completely relevant in here but there's 'optimism' for sure as it is coming from the experts, implying we ain't barking up the wrong tree. :D

image.thumb.png.8db7711f156476beea347073image.thumb.png.a96168c331718da2429bbe58

 

 

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I'm hoping a decent Northery turns into an Easterly, first get Europe/Western Russia cold and bring in the beast...In reality though, crisp dry frosty morning would also be very welcome....Lets hope for a nice pub run - so far so good.

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Fascinating conditions in the Netherlands, thanks for posting Vorticity.

I can certainly verify that freezing rain is dangerous as I have discovered (painfully) on my cycle commute before.  

Looks like increasing possibilities for a UK cold shot now.  

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14 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

https://t.co/M7akdp5c4g

This update from John Hammond gets particuarly interesting 3 minutres in, explaining about the high pressure in the North Pole displacing the cold air, definitely corresponds with the models!

 

 

He had one heck of a glint in his eyes, he's excited!!

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15 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

"Computer models are beginning to agree" - JH

Weather for the week ahead worth a watch:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35228964

It can be said decidedly the UK is going to experience a cold plunge the depth of cold remains unknown as well as longevity. Again not completely relevant in here but there's 'optimism' for sure as it is coming from the experts, implying we ain't barking up the wrong tree. :D

image.thumb.png.8db7711f156476beea347073image.thumb.png.a96168c331718da2429bbe58

 

 

'optimism' from our long standing experts on NW as well Dan!:)

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With all the talk of potential cold, just thought i'd throw this little offering into the mix to keep our resident mildies happy. Its ptrb 13 from the GEM ensembles.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=13&ech=384&mode=1&carte=0

Ironically this arrives despite high pressure being resident over Greenland. I don't for a minute think this will occur as will be the wildest of warm outliers, but its an interesting chart nonetheless as it would surely be a record breaker for warmth in January unless there was some form of inversion present. I'm not sure i've ever seen a chart with 850s this high in January!

Strange times!

 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i was wondering how you might put an 'uncold spin' onto the extended eps. Given their range and and the anomolys /mean uppers shown, I'm surprised you see it like that. I would say it impresses me by maintaining the anomoly to our nw well into the 10/15 day period and it's likely to lead to

a) a sustained Scandi trough delivering a mean North/ nor'easter flow

b) a cold high drifting slowly in from the wnw of the UK and delivering some potential ice days 

c) an undercut of the Atlantic to approach from the sw and then potentially disrupt se

did you notice that by the end of the run, the Arctic upper ridge has found its way to sit over Svalbard? 

certainly the best extended eps of the season thus far. 

I wasn't trying to put an 'uncold' spin on it as you so eloquently put it but merely representing what the ext. said at T360. And I maintain that what I said was correct as indicated by this chart.

eps_t850_natl_61.thumb.png.79e9c69afdc3b

It rather amuses me that people are very intent on accusing me of ulterior motives and yet conveniently forget that I actually mooted this very scenario in a post a couple of days ago.

 

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3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

With all the talk of potential cold, just thought i'd throw this little offering into the mix to keep our resident mildies happy. Its ptrb 13 from the GEM ensembles.

Oh never mind about them, they had December to enjoy. :D:wink:

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WAA looks like linking with the Arctic high on the run, to me looking much better.

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

WAA looks like linking with the Arctic high on the run, tommlooking much better.

 

Yes,looks like a pub run cracker coming up.:)

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7 minutes ago, knocker said:

I wasn't trying to put an 'uncold' spin on it as you so eloquently put it but merely representing what the ext. said at T360. And I maintain that what I said was correct as indicated by this chart.

eps_t850_natl_61.thumb.png.79e9c69afdc3b

It rather amuses me that people are very intent on accusing me of ulterior motives and yet conveniently forget that I actually mooted this very scenario in a post a couple of days ago.

 

Knocker, I am usually in full agreement with you... and what you say is fair. But, this is a day 15/16 chart. And recently we have seen a big shift in the EC suite towards cold... so a day 16 mean chart is of little use. We have to look for trends, as you well know. And the EC is joined with GEFS & GEM to establish a cold theme into Europe in the medium to long term - by all accounts, we will see  conditions change markedly to where they have been the last 6 weeks or so. I don't think BA was being unkind, just trying to articulate that the ens are very encouraging for cold... even out to day 15.

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11 minutes ago, knocker said:

I wasn't trying to put an 'uncold' spin on it as you so eloquently put it but merely representing what the ext. said at T360. And I maintain that what I said was correct as indicated by this chart.

eps_t850_natl_61.thumb.png.79e9c69afdc3b

It rather amuses me that people are very intent on accusing me of ulterior motives and yet conveniently forget that I actually mooted this very scenario in a post a couple of days ago.

 

Yes Knocker, absolutely right, the chart does not show extreme cold over the UK, just possibilities for it. Thank you for posting these charts as you see them, appreciated by many.

I would argue the signs do look cold in D7-D12, though, if you look at all the output together, including the NOAA chart posted above.

If anyone really did want to do a mild ramp though ... (credit to poster above for the link!!) ... 21C in London on this???!

gens-13-0-384.png

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GFS has got stuck, probably foreseen +168h and shocked itself. 

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Just a note on the ECM parallel tonight. The only thing of note is that pressure to the north of Greenland drops between days 8-10 as a depression crosses right across the pole from Siberia to Canada - a true reverse cross polar flow. But the gate is closed shut again by day 10 and the Atlantic block looks to rebuild further north again. No major concerns regarding output.

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Looking flatter across the Atlantic at this point compared to the 12Z. We really see to see a low blowing up at the right time over over the NE US as Nick has been saying.

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?18gfsnh-0-174.png?12

 

 

 

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Another attempt at a solution to the North American pattern showing a very different suggestion at 144h. As per NIck Sussex forecasters over there don't appear convinced with any of them apart from it 'meandering around'. Difficult to place any faith in anything either before or beyond that, for this reason.......

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The GFS doing its best to create a drama here but with the PV chunk heading off to Hawaii then even it won't be able to clutch defeat!

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I think at this point the 18z is looking much better for sustained cold than 12z.  That ridge from Canada into N pole and the E seaboard set up has for me prolonged ridge from Greenland. No SW spoiler over Iceland and this will allow the GHP to control the Atlantic more

h850t850eu.png

 

BFTP

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