Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[nick sussex]

The ECM looks similar to the UKMO and both are more amplified over the eastern Pacific compared to the GFS at T96hrs.

T120hrs the ECM most amplified over the central USA, also it doesn't have that annoying shortwave off the east coast of the USA like the GFS.

Edited January 4, 2016 by nick sussex

[Day 10]

ukmo an ecm 120 to compare

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM looks similar to the UKMO and both are more amplified over the eastern Pacific compared to the GFS at T96hrs

Differences at 120 nick, ukmo better perhaps?

Sorry nick you already commented on ecm 120

Edited January 4, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Cloud 10]

ECM at 120 hrs has -7/-8 uppers making inroads to Northern Scotland...

 

[radiohead]

T144 ECM looks similar to the GEM, perhaps slightly better.

[nick sussex]

Best T144hrs output from the  ECM upstream, we want that low upstream to blow up and deepen rapidly at T168hrs to force some WAA into Greenland.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

ukmo an ecm 120 to compare

Nobody mentioned the navgem at 120 which is also similar to ukmo/ecm

..then goes on to produce this at 180..

perfect Greeny ridge with some good WAA,toasty

[Day 10]

And 144 EC an UKMO for those who can't see charts

[northwestsnow]

Not sure i'm liking ecm again this evening, looks very similar to the 0z run with little prospect of a sustanied greeny block.

[booferking]

Great 168 chart ECM

[Allseasons-Si]

It's funny how the ECM at 144 hrs looks very similar to the 192 hrs on this mornings run(cross polar)

12z...00z...

that's 48 hrs difference

Edited January 4, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure i'm liking ecm again this evening, looks very similar to the 0z run with little prospect of a sustanied greeny block.

Why?

The post below yours says its great?

[tight isobar]

Get some decent waa into Greenland @216  then its..whos contacting tge discovery chanel to confirm we have found the holy grail!!!!!

[Spah1]

Mucka  and NorthWestSnow having opposite ideas

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Why?

The post below yours says its great?

Well i guess its all about opinions maybe mine is wrong, but im not seeing any sustained Greenland block on ecm this evening.

If im wrong thats great news.

Still the colder uppers are into the UK at 168

Edited January 4, 2016 by northwestsnow

[london and south east kent]

Must be very confusing for newbies on here one person saying very good ecm then the next say not very good ..

[Mucka]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well i guess its all about opinions maybe mine is wrong, but im not seeing any sustained Greenland block on ecm this evening.

If im wrong thats great news.

Well I'm wrong because I didn't think the trough would blow up to that extent with all the energy heading NE and no Greenland high, but maybe an Icelandic high and certainly cold snap/spell.

[radiohead]

Looks like it's going to the toppler route. But there is a good shot of cold air from the north there.

 

Edited January 4, 2016 by radiohead

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, abbie123456 said:

Must be very confusing for newbies on here one person saying very good ecm then the next say not very good ..

I guess its a forum where people can have different opinions, i certainly didnt say ecm was a bad run, but im wanting a sustained greeny block with a decent cold spell, still looks cold at 168

[Allseasons-Si]

Ooooh!

now can we get that link up,i have just dashed behind me sofa

[nick sussex]

Okay ECM so far, the blown up low at T192hrs is really what we want to see at T168hrs as this would drive more warm air into Greenland to build high pressure.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Well I'm wrong because I didn't think the trough would blow up to that extent with all the energy heading NE and no Greenland high, but maybe an Icelandic high and certainly cold snap/spell.

Not sure what you mean about the trough? Just looking at all the energy spilling out of canada was enough for me to see there was not going to be a sustained block

[I remember Atlantic 252]

very good to see ECM still going with change next week, matching other models, hopefully drier and colder (south) snow of course north

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure what you mean about the trough? Just looking at all the energy spilling out of canada was enough for me to see there was not going to be a sustained block

There was good tilt on the low 168, the energy isn't the issue as we need that to drive the WAA ahead, it is where it goes that matters.

Edited January 4, 2016 by Mucka

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Looks like it's going to the toppler route. But there is a good shot of cold air from the north there.

 

Plenty of WAA going up toward greeny there,no toppler.

 

Edit:you could be right there,where did that shortwave come from

Edited January 4, 2016 by Allseasons-si