Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I had the block nearby but not influencing us enough for cold.  But I'm pleasantly surprised by the output as it is looking close enough to be of interest.  Going back to what GP said about mjo, gwo, Aam, glaam or vietnaam, very interesting re dates around end of Jan.....I'm very keen on Stewart's thoughts especially with northerly blast and heights to W/NW and trough to Scandinavia.  Yep it's in my thoughts, and potential of some severity to.

back here and now, all I see currently is interesting model watching and chances of cold intrusion remain nicely in tact.   

 

BFTP

below are some of my thoughts in seasonal thread...so I was keen on GPs update...

 

Towards very end of month entering into Feb is when I'm looking for change to an assault from the North.  Short and sweet but almost as we were in a way.  I hope this reverse psychology of mild to very mild brings a bitter cold blast to really mess it up

Edited December 31, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TSNWK]

ECM 12z short ensembles have switched quite notably to a 75% milder solution for Holland in the 3-7 day range as opposed to a 50% split previously!

Not a nice trend..

[snowray]

Just a thought, but sometimes when we have very cold air in the East the models underestimate how tough it can be to shift the block out of the way.  We could even end up with some sort of stalling front around about that crucial T168 period struggling against the cold block in the East with the Atlantic being kept at bay. This would produce heavy snow where the front stalls and sometimes the cold air wins and pushes the front back West. Not seen that sort of an event for quite some time now.

 

Happy New year everyone and keep up the good work with all the great posts.

Edited December 31, 2015 by snowray

[lorenzo]

The final 18z of 2016 is in the post. Happy New Year everyone. Here's to another 12 months of great discussion, some great posts today whether large scale or whether up close and detailed, proof that even though we can get closer and understand more, the weather always wins.

Always something new to see, learn or enjoy. Have a happy, healthy year folks

[TSNWK]

I have just viewed the  extended ECM ensembles for de-bilt.. Average I would say throughout with about 95% showing a typical sine wave pattern and temputure averaging at mid to high single digits..

shocking really..as they look rock solid.. Never seen Such a tight pack 

Edited December 31, 2015 by TSNWK

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just caught up on the 12z modelling.....well here's your GLOSEA seasonal modelling in the form of a GFS chart.....

 

Edited December 31, 2015 by CreweCold

[karlos1983]

@BLAST FROM THE PAST if we do see heights towards our NW and a trough to the NE, happy flipping days. I must say I was surprised at the lack of excitement following GP's post because you could sense the anticipation in his post that something is definitely afoot. So I very much look forward to the modelling into the NY. 

Happy New year everyone. I love this forum, it's the one place in the world that I can truly indulge myself in, that nobody around me gets, which is my passion for the weather. Enjoy the night, drink plenty and I hope 2016 brings happiness to us all! 

[lorenzo]

Am all for the close up stuff, but this is a thing of sheer wonder.

If anyone can explain why we have this block beyond the limited 15 days since 1974 that reconcile the MJO imprint on the atmosphere in Nino episodes then am all ears.

I get the trough disruption is of great interest but would like to counter that this anomaly appearing only 15 days out of a possible 11,315 is equally impressive.

[TSNWK]

14 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Am all for the close up stuff, but this is a thing of sheer wonder.

If anyone can explain why we have this block beyond the limited 15 days since 1974 that reconcile the MJO imprint on the atmosphere in Nino episodes then am all ears.

I get the trough disruption is of great interest but would like to counter that this anomaly appearing only 15 days out of a possible 11,315 is equally impressive.

That chart really looks the business synoptically...... Such a shame it fails to deliver and all goes a little afterwards..

[bobbydog]

well its new years eve. i haven't had a chance to analyze the output tonight but has the 'steve murr easterly' shown its hand yet?

from a realistic point of view obviously, not a 'snow goggles' one...

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

well its new years eve. i haven't had a chance to analyze the output tonight but has the 'steve murr easterly' shown its hand yet?

from a realistic point of view obviously, not a 'snow goggles' one...

Not really.. It was a brave call from Steve.. But an outside shot and the odds have lengthened further after this evenings ECM ensembles and the current 18z GFS..

 

 

[Liam J]

18z gone off on one, windy/stormy & wet = Potential for flooding issues to carry on with little let up... 

[Swave Snow]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Not really.. It was a brave call from Steve.. But an outside shot and the odds have lengthened further after this evenings ECM ensembles and the current 18z GFS..

 

Let's wait for 24 hours after his post

 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Swave Snow said:

 

Let's.. But make no mistakes the odds have lengthened considerably after those ECM ensembles.. Will be a unprecedented flip from tonight's ECm ensembles if Steve M call is going to come in.. They be the facts.. 

 

[snowray]

Big changes on this run from the off virtually, that small ridge that was developing to our North towards Iceland at T96 has gone. Chalk and cheese compared the the 12z runs. One for the bin maybe, after all if she aint been down the pub tonight, come on 18z...

[lorenzo]

36 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

That chart really looks the business synoptically...... Such a shame it fails to deliver and all goes a little afterwards..

Sorry, if I am missing something here, don't understand the point you are trying to make- genuinely not sure, am not being a $%*& here before folks pounce on this..As far as creating a massive trop. impact on the ridiculous uber cold vortex - I think this is as significant as it gets. Just a pity there is a disconnect further up in the stratosphere.

My point is that this block is as rare as it gets in the current synoptic set up - simply put - it has no right to be there.. it is a freakish occurrence that neither any MJO phase alone, nor addition via any form of Barents - Kara Amplification will explain. Sorry again to be harsh, it's easily dismissed I supposed in the arena of will it won't it easterly, but I think it's important to illustrate where we have a true atmospheric anomaly. Indeed rarity.

All eyes continue on the tropics, would refer folks back to @Glacier Point post earlier today outlining 2 important things - 

1 where the MJO really does it's dance and gives us some keen insight on the the next 3 weeks.

2 where the dark art of GWO or Glaam inform the probability of the very patterns we are looking closely occurring.

It's a chicken and egg thing I suppose, you cannot have synoptics that remove an atmospheric mode giving a record December without a hemispheric pattern change, subsequently you cannot have model variety without various inflections of this change.

Am going to pick 144 as reality step in current evolution - divergence from here.

Look forward to the first runs of 2016. What a January we have ahead, especially with output as knife edge as today paving the way.

Onwards and Upwards !

 

 

Edited December 31, 2015 by lorenzo

[booferking]

Two word for GFS consistency for the reliable complete mess lol.

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

Sorry, if I am missing something here, don't understand the point you are trying to make- genuinely not sure, am not being a $%*& here before folks pounce on this..As far as creating a massive trop. impact on the ridiculous uber cold vortex - I think this is as significant as it gets. Just a pity there is a disconnect further up in the stratosphere.

My point is that this block is as rare as it gets in the current synoptic set up - simply put - it has no right to be there.. it is a freakish occurrence that neither any MJO phase alone, nor addition via any form of Barents - Kara Amplification will explain. Sorry again to be harsh, it's easily dismissed I supposed in the arena of will it won't it easterly, but I think it's important to illustrate where we have a true atmospheric anomaly. Indeed rarity.

All eyes continue on the tropics, would refer folks back to @Glacier Point post earlier today outlining 2 important things - 

1 where the MJO really does it's dance and gives us some keen insight on the the next 3 weeks.

2 where the dark art of GWO or Glaam inform the probability of the very patterns we are looking closely occurring.

It's a chicken and egg thing I suppose, you cannot have synoptics that remove an atmospheric mode giving a record December without a hemispheric pattern change, subsequently you cannot have model variety without various inflections of this change.

Am going to pick 144 as reality step in current evolution - divergence from here.

Look forward to the first runs of 2016. What a January we have ahead, especially with output as knife edge as today paving the way.

Onwards and Upwards !

 

Yes, this is very much Unknown territory,  I've been model watching for 5 years and not seen a setup like it. Bizzare yet I can't wait to see the outcome. I shall sit in my corner and read the input of the experienced posters digest what "could" happen. At least it ain't boring 

[mb018538]

I think it's more the realistic view? The ensembles never veered to agreement on a cold shot, it was always odd runs showing it, whereas the bulk showed what we're going to end up with - chilly cyclonic conditions with lots of wind and more rain. The stuff of nightmares if truth be told! Hopefully this colder air should hold less moisture, and if we're lucky we can avoid scenes like we've seen his last month in the north.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

I think it's more the realistic view? The ensembles never veered to agreement on a cold shot, it was always odd runs showing it, whereas the bulk showed what we're going to end up with - chilly cyclonic conditions with lots of wind and more rain. The stuff of nightmares if truth be told! Hopefully this colder air should hold less moisture, and if we're lucky we can avoid scenes like we've seen his last month in the north.

Not really, it took a day for the ensembles to catch up, which is normal. The op will lead the ensembles not the other way round in my experience, so tomorrow I'll expect more of the same from the ensembles, but come the evening it could be a different story. 

[Timmytour]

GFS 18z illustrates how close we are to some really cold weather......instead of the one run that gives us unwarranted optimism, it is going to be the one run that makes us think....meh!  Instead of the wildly optimistic happy mood as it comes back from the pub, it's drunk itself into a miserable depression  (actually several of them!).

I think of this run as concrete evidence that the models have flipped!     instead of future runs taking away from what the pub run gave us, they will replace and replenish what the pub run is attempting to take away from us!

Happy New Year all

[bobbydog]

26 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

 

yes... lets wait...

[Mucka]

Quite a lurch away from colder solutions on ECM 12z London ensembles and the cluster of colder options in FI has also thinned out though still a few going colder toward mid month.

Edited December 31, 2015 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Quite a lurch away from colder solutions on ECM 12z London ensembles and the cluster of colder options in FI has also disappeared though still a few going colder toward mid month.

Was certainly on the warm side towards the end though 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Quite a lurch away from colder solutions on ECM 12z London ensembles and the cluster of colder options in FI has also disappeared though still a few going colder toward mid month.

Yes Mucka..those ensembles were a bit of kick in the teeth..