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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

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10 minutes ago, chris55 said:

GFS control would deliver plenty of snow for most!!!

gens-0-0-162.png

only transient for the far NE, can clearly see the mild sector moving in

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Not masses of change on ECM up to T144 - snow still mainly for Scotland - but this more intense cold pool over Norway at T96 would put paid to an extended easterly - it's killing what was left of the Scandi High

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2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Those strong heights over Scandi just get obliterated from T48 onwards.

48 hrs ecm48.thumb.gif.8ee849763c68e45a7dba89ad 120hrs ecm120.thumb.gif.0f723f64abb2c8d7c33a610

UKMOECM & GFS  @ 144hrs

ukmo1441.thumb.gif.e9bc79a59b000eab4810decm1441.thumb.gif.928e1afd7cf3071a12b5d4gfs144.thumb.png.f8301f66f2c5b06a432d964

 

 

Yep, goodbye block on the 12z's.

Im more bothered about the possibilty of the azores high ridging back to Europe.

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Ok,last one from me before i get hammered:D

ECM 168.....TROUGH GOING UNDER?

ECM1-168.thumb.GIF.6a5c4269ac92e99b445e2

laters guys,have a good un.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Lol am i looking at different charts!!i thought the ecm looked better than the gfs and ukmo!!no overblown low like the gfs at 144 hours aswell!!

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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

gens-0-0-162.png

only transient for the far NE, can clearly see the mild sector moving in

That was a misleading post i quoted from "allseasons" i thought the 500hpa and 850hpa were from the same time period! Though the 850s were from 144 and the 500s were from 126. My bad for not checking lol.

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I think the issue is normally  the negatively tilted troughing would deliver some good WAA to the ne. That intense cold in relation to the shortwave running out from Norway is just too damn cold!

Normally you'd see with a more Scandi high set up the cold funnelling west with an area of milder uppers to the north/ne those warmer uppers driven nw with good WAA help to strengthen any high, here we have very cold air replacing less cold air!

This kills of the WAA. For this reason it was more important to get the Azores ridge to help with proceedings.

 

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I know deep in la la land, but surely this is the last thing we want to be seeing? 

image.jpeg

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The ECM can be summarised by cold rain replacing warm rain. 

Troughs continue to target the Uk and Ireland throughout with colder air on the northern flanks, the Scottish mountains should do well snow wise over the next couple of weeks.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I know deep in la la land, but surely this is the last thing we want to be seeing? 

image.jpeg

The hope is, is that this segment of the PV moves East in response to the MJO phase 7/8 allowing a more amplified Atlantic, but that is 14 days away rather than ten.

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The P.V looks to be under extreme pressure at 240 on tonight's ECM. Very close to a complete split. I remain confident that we will be into a much colder pattern by the end of the second week of January. That's not to say that Steve's brave call earlier won't come to fruition .. I sincerely hope it does. Brave call but very entertaining to read and much more enjoyable than endless pages of red coloured temperate anomaly maps and FI ensemble means...

Whatever your weather preferences a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2016 to all at net weather.

 

ECM - 31.12.15 . 12z npsh500_240.png

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One thing / trend I have noticed these past 48 hours is a feeling that the runs upgrade a little in the early part and then kinda of disappoint as we enter mid range say around 144/168.. 

This in my view does add some credence to he thoughts offered by Steve M earlier this evening.. It just seems that at the moment we cannot reach that tipping point into full on winter.

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12 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The hope is, is that this segment of the PV moves East in response to the MJO phase 7/8 allowing a more amplified Atlantic, but that is 14 days away rather than ten.

Cheers @mountain shadow, will keep an eye on that then. 

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26 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

One thing / trend I have noticed these past 48 hours is a feeling that the runs upgrade a little in the early part and then kinda of disappoint as we enter mid range say around 144/168.. 

This in my view does add some credence to he thoughts offered by Steve M earlier this evening.. It just seems that at the moment we cannot reach that tipping point into full on winter.

Spot on!!thats exaxctly what ive noticed aswell mate!!!things look ugly at around the 144 hour timeframe then come within 48 hours it looks better!

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Guys I think this newly deepened Norwegian cold pool will put paid to any Scandi High in the short term. Both ECM and UKMO run with it at T96 and when they agree at this range then 99 times out of 100 they will be right. 

Apart from seeing how far south any snow gets next Tuesday/Wednesday, the next thing I'll be watching is this small anomalous ridge to our north at T144. We got a similar ridge in January 2013 and it so so nearly brought the house down. My guess is it can't go east, north or south particularly easily, so it'll go west, and perhaps by T240-T288 we'll get a northerly on the back of it.

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Spot on!!thats exaxctly what ive noticed aswell mate!!!things look ugly at around the 144 hour timeframe then come within 48 hours it looks better!

Give me a proper Atlantic block / greeny high not this rubbish undercut scenario. All I can see is rain or cold rain with LP systems whipping in one after another bringing rain and hill snow in the north. There was so much talk of this high pressure appearing towards scandi and clearly it has increased flooding chances rather than snow.

Edited by MPG

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

As expected a much changed ECM & if you like snow day 7 is full of it - inclusive of the midlands North this time from the slider....

ECU1-168.GIF?31-0

Gone is the deep bowling ball low -

 

S

I'm afraid I'm slightly confused if the 'slider' you refer to is that low in the North Sea.  I say that because at T120 that low was centred over Weymouth 984mb. From there it travelled ENE into the southern North sea 986mb by T144 and then to the T168 position (as in your chart) The snowfall you mention was mainly from a small secondary low that formed in the southern circulation of the main low to the south west which travelled NE and was centred over Glasgow T180 with the associated front running SE over northern England. The snow was along the north edge of the front.

Or is that low the 'slider'? If so it slid up from the SW.

 

 

 

Edited by knocker
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7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

O come on knocker you know what is being referred to... For completeness look to far left of the panel, and take a look at the isobars..  Flowing in a Nw  > Se direction.. Classic negative tilt as the trough disrupts spawning short waves south east (sliding)

Actually I didn't which is why I asked. I realise the main trough is negatively tilted but i didn't get the 'slider' bit because it's spawning shortwaves NE.

Edited by knocker
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Aye, I think we all know what a 'slider' is...It's just, that for every 100 that are predicted, only one ever comes to fruition???

Which is precisely why I, for one, am not going to predict anything until Wednesday...It's all 'up in the air'!:D

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I am certainly more confident now as apposed to over a week ago that we could be seeing some shots at wintry weather in the coming month .

as far as tonights charts out to about one week from now in this type of set up goes ,we could if we get lucky see pressure rise a bit more to our north north east and with plenty of energy from the Atlantic that in itself could give us a very good chance .

a lot going on in the northern hemisphere just now and i am personally not looking to far ahead  as big changes could come very quickly ,so very interesting discussion wise  which of course is all good for our Super Net weather forum ,not very technical from me Gang ,SO from ME tonight to all of you  cheers to some more interesting times in 2016 HAppy new year to you all ,and of course the modells ,cheers :drunk-emoji::cold:

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