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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

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GFS 12z showing the more likely pattern, with a failure of the Easterly. It is now I believe picking up the MJO phase 7/8 signal with the cut off Greenland high, where we can look North for the cold not East.

I believe the extended runs have been picking up on this for a while. 

This could give a more widespread colder spell to favoured areas ahead of any SSW occurring in February.

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Purely for fun but nice end to the run. Off to get drunk now Happy New Year to all, ENJOY!!!

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.f718711a5d47ea8359

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26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS 12z showing the more likely pattern, with a failure of the Easterly. It is now I believe picking up the MJO phase 7/8 signal with the cut off Greenland high, where we can look North for the cold not East.

I believe the extended runs have been picking up on this for a while. 

This could give a more widespread colder spell to favoured areas ahead of any SSW occurring in February.

You still think we will get an SSW in Feb? No signs out till D16 yet and take 30 days on from there and we are mid Feb. I remember last year when an SSW was suggested and delay after delay and we didn't get one in the end. 

I think we need to look for trop led changes for the next month at least and there is a signal for possible heights building end Jan in Greenland so although the GFS seems a bit presumptuous,  we would take it:

568560c545c2f_gfsnh-0-384(1).thumb.png.d   5685611e50172_gfsnh-0-384(1).thumb.png.0

Early days yet on that. The GFS op run is more seasonal with respect to uppers so no repeat of a CET of +5c in Jan. Support from the GEFS for a brief incursion of lower uppers into the NE around D5-6:

gens-21-0-132.thumb.png.18d751b90f0580b6

Then into a cool westerly flow.

 

Edited by IDO

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Well! well! well!

gfs control going the same way as ukmo/navgem did on there past runs

gens-0-1-126.thumb.png.3debf1bf4aa8294d2gens-0-0-144.thumb.png.3147212bc4789622b

navgem coming out now,off now for the festive bash

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE:friends::drunk::D

 

 

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GFS, UKMO & GEM @ T144,  reasonably similar with the trough placement over the Atlantic, GEM would keep any milder air south of the UK. 

gfs144.thumb.png.bdec7bfa0b2570d20f796d2ukmo1441.thumb.gif.f9f166082b8f38722a49agem144.thumb.png.22d937522e97d3b2910f7b8

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Well you couldn't make it up! The GFS 12hrs run heads towards the UKMO 00hrs run and the UKMO 12hrs heads in the other direction.

The issue is the half baked scenario where the models can't decide whether to clear the low se'wards or keep the elongated shortwave energy running nw/se.

Still the ECM to come and wouldn't be surprising to see that come out with a different solution.

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17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well you couldn't make it up! The GFS 12hrs run heads towards the UKMO 00hrs run and the UKMO 12hrs heads in the other direction.

The issue is the half baked scenario where the models can't decide whether to clear the low se'wards or keep the elongated shortwave energy running nw/se.

Still the ECM to come and wouldn't be surprising to see that come out with a different solution.

I bet my xmas prezzies the ECM is much different tonight

again the updated 12z JMA to 84 has the ridge & the arpege to 114 does as well

eyes down for NAVGEM & ECM

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well you couldn't make it up! The GFS 12hrs run heads towards the UKMO 00hrs run and the UKMO 12hrs heads in the other direction.

The issue is the half baked scenario where the models can't decide whether to clear the low se'wards or keep the elongated shortwave energy running nw/se.

Still the ECM to come and wouldn't be surprising to see that come out with a different solution.

Its like i said earlier.... Jan 2013 one model going one way the rest the other... then as soon as the rest join the party the first model drops it and goes another way then they all go back again with none of them being correct until about t48....

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Reliable timeframe is very short at present - about 96 hours tops. It will probably take another day until they agree on the movement and position of the low pressure early next week - with this in mind, expect more conflicting signals in the next few model runs. Might be best taking a break from model watching until things become much clearer come Saturday - have the new year off!.

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8 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

I bet my xmas prezzies the ECM is much different tonight

again the updated 12z JMA to 84 has the ridge & the arpege to 114 does as well

eyes down for NAVGEM & ECM

It wouldn't surprise me, in the space of 12hrs the shortwave which was expected to deepen and run east close to me here has disappeared, which I'm very relieved about ! So it doesn't really give much confidence to what the outputs are doing from within the normally " very reliable timeframe"!

Edited by nick sussex
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I wish people would understand that charts beyond 96 are complete guess work, a 5 year old with crayons could scribble more accurate charts.  It is pointless hanging on every output. 

Todays charts are showing anything from cold with a chance of snow to wet and windy.  I look at the charts once every three days.

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Nothing yet on the ecm steve?!looks similar to gfs at 48 hours!!

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Wxmidwest on Twitter back in October did a graph showing North Pac SLP for October and showed what this could signal based on past results and the graph should the DJFM NAO running in negative territory and today he uploaded this which to me looks good:

 https://twitter.com/wxmidwest/status/681736611143417856

Edited by Bullseye

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1 minute ago, Tim Brawn said:

That would be great , shame is whilst they differ so much its no wonder people get their knickers in a twist .     Rain bouncing down here again , not forecast and 5C

but where please? 

Can you pop your nearest town in so we all know what the weather is in your locality, it really helps the enjoyment for us all.

Again welcome to Net Wx.

Edited by johnholmes
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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nothing yet on the ecm steve?!looks similar to gfs at 48 hours!!

Maybe best wait until the run has progressed a bit shaky and then give a bit more detail.Perhaps a chart or 2 or even a link.?

Ta.:)

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1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well! well! well!

gfs control going the same way as ukmo/navgem did on there past runs

gens-0-1-126.thumb.png.3debf1bf4aa8294d2gens-0-0-144.thumb.png.3147212bc4789622b

navgem coming out now,off now for the festive bash

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE:friends::drunk::D

 

 

GFS control would deliver plenty of snow for most!!!

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Snow or rain, dry and chilly or moist and mild, come hell and high water (no pun intended) whatever the weather look after yourselves and have a wonderful evening my friends.

See you in 2016 and I for one am looking forward to a most intriguing final two-thirds to Winter. :drunk-emoji:

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