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nsrobins

ENC risk AL/MS/TN 23.12.15

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For anyone who is looking for a distraction from the potentially volatile works Christmas do, an impressive set-up for December threatens a Dixie tornado day Weds.

All key ingredients in place for some significant tornados especially if early crud clears in time. 

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Yep. 

 

I see Greg Forbes has issued a TOR:CON of 7 for a couple of areas - only the third time he has done that this entire year - that's not good in the last couple of days before Christmas at all. 

 

 

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
318 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

WITH DISRUPTIVE GULF CONVECTION OUR OF THE PICTURE...THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS RELATED TO STORM COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.
FORTUNATELY STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE VERY ISOLATED AS THE STRONGEST
FORCING BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RAPID NORTHWARD
SURGE OF A WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WAVE OF EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT LEAST A FEW MODELS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEAR 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS
BIRMINGHAM BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. AN
ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 59 AS A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA.


THE LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS SETUP ARE TIED TO A TENDENCY FOR
500 MB HEIGHT RISES AND A LACK OF LIFT. 200 MB DIVERGENCE AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SUPERCELLS FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY ALLOW THEM TO BECOME INTENSE
NEAR THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR OVERLAP...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. A VIOLENT TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF
ALL OF THE RIGHT SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.

 

 

 

Ominous.

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Some of the hodos for W TN are very impressive indeed. A quick stab and I'd say a line Jackson TN to Florence AL for max tornado potential. Some discrete cells too so long track possible. 

Might have to excuse myself from the do early tonight :)

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Upgrade to MDT risk not a surprise. Also PSWO issued. Once the current convection clears from AR I expect rapid rotating cell development in areas already mentioned - from say 19Z. Obviously daylight is limited but this is unlikely to hinder the severity and discretion of cells so a nighttime tornado risk continues after dark.

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If I heard right there is a tornado EMERGENCY for counties in far NE MS. Very rare.
Certainly the vectors on that cell North of Oxford are triple figures gate to gate.

Brett Adair is on stream at a location with extensive damage 2 miles S of Holly Springs.

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And Oxford right in the path of new cell - must be a tor on the ground looking at velocities. Getting dark now.
A very dangerous few hours for N MS and W TN

 

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Some damage in hopewell just now,Joshua Napper on the scene

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new cell developing just north east of Cleveland(tail end of the ppn)with a warning on it,one to watch.

 

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Big Tornado in Texas last night...not good at all!  11 confirmed as dead. EF3/4 damage.

 

 

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