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Somerset Squall

Moderate Tropical Storm Bohale

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A new tropical cyclone has formed just south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Deep convection is persisting over the core of the 35kt system, and convective banding is becoming better defined. Shearis low and waters warm, however, the air is a little dry, and this could begin to interfere with development in the next few days. Still, 05S should strengthen modestly over the next few days, before the southerly track takes 05S over colder waters and much higher shear. 05S should remain east of La Reunion.

 

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05S became Moderate Tropical Storm Bohale yesterday, but has since been downgraded to a tropical depression by MeteoFrance. JTWC have upped the winds to 40kts, very much still storm status. Conditions are marginal, with lukewarm sea temps, moderate shear but good poleward outflow. For the next day or so, conditions will remain unchanged, so little change in strength is forecast. The southward track will then take Bohale over colder waters and increased shear, inducing a dissipation trend.

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