Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[knocker]

In spades

 

[bluearmy]

56 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is there anywhere to view these extended charts?

Only behind a paywall Ali.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Look how close to snowy nirvana we come in FI

[bobbydog]

at least the strat is happy...

[Mucka]

ECM 12 ensembles showing the Op was on the cold side but the extended go for split around the 13th 75%/25% mild/colder(cool)

 

 

This website is driving me bats**t crazy.

I copy the 12z for 2nd, paste it here it comes up 2nd, post and it is the ensembles from the 1st?

WTF!!!!!!!!!! aRghHHHHHH 20 times later 

 

Can someone else post them please, no matter what I do it posts a cached version?

 

@Seaside 60

"Just scroll your curser over the time last post made and it will show the time of posting."

 

Thanks, tried to highlight then bold your comment for effect but that doesn't work .

I much prefer the old forum format all the same

 

Edit

Thanks Nousaka.

 

 

Edited December 3, 2015 by Mucka

[Nouska]

   I don't like this new format - this will be a test to see if I've got the hang of posting an image that doesn't look huge.

                                                             

[igloo]

3 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

The ensembles for Winnipeg give an idea of the unusual "warmth" associated with those anomalous Canadian heights.

 

it may not be unusual   this year for winnipeg to see such warmth for this season i was watching the canadian weather channels winter forecast yesterday  they expect a very mild winter with the jet stream way further north than usual  with the west coast taking a beating with storms even a comment about ice roads not  thick enough for the trucks this season im not sure what the knock on effect for us will be with the jet  in northern canada

Edited December 3, 2015 by igloo

[Mucka]

Quite a wintry chart on day 10 from GFS 00z, especially further North (Doesn't last long though)

But this is very different from the 18z and will change again next run.

One of the main areas to watch will be the low developing off the Eastern seaboard which UKMO and GFS handle very differently this morning.

[knocker]

The low on Monday I mentioned yesterday is, according to this morning's gfs, on a track that will just take the strong winds in the southern quadrant a whisker north of the Hebrides. A good job as, briefly, the gusts could be in excess of 75kts.

Regarding the run as a whole best as usual described as the usual interplay between the Pm and Tm air associated with systems whipping along to the north and the HP to the SW/S. The odd quite cold plunge bringing some wintry weather, mainly to the north, but also some ridiculously warm air dragged up from the south on occasion. Of course it's one run so observe with interest and move on but one can't help wondering whether Santa will slip a December temp record into the stocking on Xmas day. Chart weatherbell

 

Edited December 3, 2015 by knocker

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Of course it's one run so observe with interest and move on but one can't help wondering whether Santa will slip a December temp record into the stocking on Xmas day. Chart weatherbell

 

 

Of course he will. Now to find the lowest temp recorded on Christmas Day!!!

 

I think people in the north would be liking the lates gfs fun......

[Ali1977]

ECM seems to have froze....I was hoping that was going to bring some happiness to this forum.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM seems to have froze....I was hoping that was going to bring some happiness to this forum.

Awww me too, i think it looked OK at 144hrs, so maybe it will cheer us up when it comes out

[knocker]

Rather depends on what cheers you up but I doubt it.

Anyway the ecm is treating the low Monday completely differently to the gfs. It takes the main deep low up to Iceland and has another low forming mid Atlantic which nips along ENE to be centred over Stornoway at 06z Tuesday. Possibly some strong winds in the southern quadrant but it's a bit academic as I'm sure this analysis will change in the next day or two.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Rather depends on what cheers you up but I doubt it.

Anyway the ecm is treating the low Monday completely differently to the gfs. It takes the main deep low up to Iceland and has another low forming mid Atlantic which nips along ENE to be centred over Stornoway at 06z Tuesday. Possibly some strong winds in the southern quadrant but it's a bit academic as I'm sure this analysis will change in the next day or two.

Lol. 

 

Liking the nh profile in the later stages of each. High right over the pole. Can't post charts as I am on my phone. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Rather depends on what cheers you up but I doubt it.

Anyway the ecm is treating the low Monday completely differently to the gfs. It takes the main deep low up to Iceland and has another low forming mid Atlantic which nips along ENE to be centred over Stornoway at 06z Tuesday. Possibly some strong winds in the southern quadrant but it's a bit academic as I'm sure this analysis will change in the next day or two.

Have you seen the full ECM?

Edited December 3, 2015 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Have you seen the full ECM?

Not sure what you mean by full but yes out to T240

[Ali1977]

That high has being showing over the pole for several days, now quite large and at 1040mb...If we can get some WAA into that am I correct in saying the NH profile would change very quickly? I don't think it would take too much to get a sustained Northerly early after mid month...Time will tell, although the METO long range mentions nothing of the sort..

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not sure what you mean by full but yes out to T240

Whats it showing sir as ecm not working on WZ and i cant load Meteociel

sorry knocker its working now, strewth!!

Anyway, i'd haver thought some wintryness on offer on ECM esp further north, i like the trough diggging into europe at 240hrs

Edited December 3, 2015 by northwestsnow

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats it showing sir as ecm not working on WZ and i cant load Meteociel

You can view it here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

You can view it here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

Thanks Paul i got it now.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Whats it showing sir as ecm not working on WZ and i cant load Meteociel

A pretty active Atlantic bringing some wintry stuff to the north and the south getting the benefit of the HP. It ends with an active depression descending on the UK, ending up in the North Sea and introducing a brief cold plunge.

[Polar Maritime]

So the GFS continues to show a cold Northerly for around the 12th..

Edited December 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[blizzard81]

I am very disappointed with this mornings ecm run. A strong lobe of the pv left over Greenland even at the end thus going against it's last few runs.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well in my view I think the models are loading for a very active and wintry period as we approach 10th onwards.  Detail still to be decided but I'm reading that at times some pretty cold and active weather will affect all.  It isn't going to be laborious that's for sure.  For me we are still on track for a potentially wintry 10+ days approaching Xmas,

This chart could lead to a pretty wintry set up, I'm pleased with the theme though overall 

 

BFTP

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well in my view I think the models are loading for a very active and wintry period as we approach 10th onwards.  Detail still to be decided but I'm reading that at times some pretty cold and active weather will affect all.  It isn't going to be laborious that's for sure.  For me we are still on track for a potentially wintry 10+ days approaching Xmas,

 

 

 

BFTP

I like most on hear are on the look out for signs of a Change to a colder pattern , and yes there does appear to be changes on the way , for how long or how cold I don't no , but for any high lat blocking that lasts for longer than 24hours we need the vortex to take a holiday to the other side of the pole , which there is also hints of it migrating toward Siberia , although this mornings ECM has bucked that trend , let's hope it's a false cry . 

This aside I was going to ask you if your able to give me an explanation for your optimisim on a wintry spell for Xmas ? Have you done a winter LRF ? What analoges are you using ? I think I'm sniffing a few signals but certainly nothing concrete yet , I think we need to see the return of the Siberian high asap to continue to move us forward because it's pivotal to increasing waves breaks into the strat . Cheers