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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

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Again tentative sign's,  however sign's nonetheless of large lobe vortex being syphoned eastwards heading towards mid month. 

The ecm will most likely play consistent on its evolution. With hopefully pressure rises becoming a prominent evolution at base point of Greenland. 

Then its a matter of cross model divulge. 

ECH1-216.gif

ECM1-216.gif

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Again tentative sign's,  however sign's nonetheless of large lobe vortex being syphoned eastwards heading towards mid month. 

The ecm will most likely play consistent on its evolution. With hopefully pressure rises becoming a prominent evolution at base point of Greenland. 

Then its a matter of cross model divulge. 

ECH1-216.gif

ECM1-216.gif

Look at that Euro high though, i can't see much hope for anything in the cold category until that huge positive anomaly disappears. :(

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18 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Basically, December is make or break for the winter, we need some decent wave activity or the winter will be dominated by the vortex and as such preclude any HLB from being able to form. Nothing new there what with the background drivers as they are, this is a very real possibility. But luckily! plenty of time left yet for us to head down an altogether different winter's path. Personally am still convinced we are going to see a big uptick in single wave activity from mid month onwards.

Edited by s4lancia
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I wonder if the Glosea model is still showing possible changes later on this month, or did Ian F say thought signs have gone...I can't remember!!

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ECM 240 hrs...what Happens nxt?

PV heading east. HP extending north 

towards Greenland....."I'm dreaming of a .........

 

image.png

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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Signs of a change now appearing days 9&10 ECM....things changing upstream and Euro high anomaly would be on borrowed time from this point...

ECH1-240.GIF?01-0

I was just thinking the exact opposite cc looks very flat to me ?

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55 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Think as Lancia has also said above, the last point there in his blog is key as we go into end of December and into new year.

Quote "Longer-term high latitude boundary conditions favor a negative bias to the AO including extensive Eurasian snow cover and low sea ice extent in the Barents-Kara seas.  The key will be how active the energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere in late December, as early December looks quiet.  However if the energy transfer remains quiet, the polar vortex will remain strong, the AO mostly positive and mild temperatures will dominate the mid-latitudes." 

We need some more influence from the troposphere. There were a few charts showing a week, two weeks ago with promising tropospheric activity that may have impacted stratosphere but these have not made reality. 

PS. Happy with the end of the ECM though, compared to some recent runs!!

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Thats exactly why the northern hemispherical chart needs a mention. Although a flat mobile evolution is modeled on its viewing,  its possible evolutionary development as per forwarding. 

Its something advised to keep a check on via other suites in the next 2/5 days its fully open to debate (given) however COULD be a main player mid month and latter!

ECH1-216.gif

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was just thinking the exact opposite cc looks very flat to me ?

 

Look at the amplification upstream, particularly over Canada, that is what Crew is referring to I believe.

As previously stated we can't predict we would get a cold spell from that sort of set up but it would definitely put us in the game for blocking second half of Dec.

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For comparison to the day 10 ECM chart we have the day 10 GFS chart....

 

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

Similar upstream in as much as heights begin to lift away from the west of the Greenland area and across Canada. We end up with a highly amplified end of FI with much promise...

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

 

This gives some idea of what may have transpired had the ECM run further

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Personally I think today's charts have significantly improved mid months potential - maybe not blocking but a shift of the PV towards Siberia, leaving the potential of some height rises in the Atlantic. This may only lead to some better  PM shots, that will be ok though.

 

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I agree the Ecm 12z ends on a very positive note for coldies with a good chance of an incursion of Arctic air beyond T+240 hours. There is nothing I would like more than to see a nationwide cold snap and I hope mid December onwards will produce the change that most of us crave. :)

ecmt850.240.png

Edited by Frosty.
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29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Signs of a change now appearing days 9&10 ECM....things changing upstream and Euro high anomaly would be on borrowed time from this point...

ECH1-240.GIF?01-0

 

All aboard the train to the mid month change??

 

Cant see it happening tbh, its going to need some mighty wave activity now to get response from up top, if it happens its going to be at the very very earliest, early Jan.

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42 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Signs of a change now appearing days 9&10 ECM....things changing upstream and Euro high anomaly would be on borrowed time from this point...

ECH1-240.GIF?01-0

Indeed the GFS & ECM seem to be fairly well matched at day 10 tonight

- although we need these positive height predictions to filter through to the earlier timeframes...

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Well the ecm shows a little promise at day 10 but we know at that range we are      Looking at a big straw clutch. Think we need to see some big wave activity to disrupt the pv think hopefully we will see a ssw around early Jan setting us up for a colder end to Jan Feb time which met office seem to be hinting at. In the nearer term it seems a lot more rain and gales to contend with on tonight's output

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18 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

for those looking for hope re cold then look away now as the NOAA anomaly hold out no hope in the 6-15 day time period!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

John

i would suggest the signal is to muted at the moment - especially in the ENS MEAN to suggest otherwise - changes are just appearing at day 10 so thats the next landmark-

S

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8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

for those looking for hope re cold then look away now as the NOAA anomaly hold out no hope in the 6-15 day time period!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

That's the 6 to 10 day though isn't it, there could be a large difference if it was just a 10 day anomaly.

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Hi all!

as we are looking for cold think we should concentrate on the short term as at least the models are accurate on this.

there is a worrying amount of rainfall expected in Wales tomorrow with the wye, severn & vyrnwy already at breaking point. Bare a thought for those living near to the rivers as out of everyone they need to see the white stuff the most!!

as a beginner would love some accurate reading on the short term paterns to rainfall.

happy model watching 

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Good Evening All, the Atlantic train is in full swing and as I said last night "Four Lows and a Ridge" pretty sum up the outlook at the moment If we look out for coldies there is a glimmer of hope at T+168hrs  something a little colder in the flow from the Atlantic. but not long lasting by any means......:closedeyes:

tonia.png

toniax.png

000_dv1630957_si.jpg

Edited by ANYWEATHER
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I am not surprised by the model outputs showing a polar vortex-dominated westerly airstream over the UK for the first part of December, as this would be wholly in accordance with the Net-Weather winter forecast, where significant polar vortex disruption isn't expected until during the course of January.

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14 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

John

i would suggest the signal is to muted at the moment - especially in the ENS MEAN to suggest otherwise - changes are just appearing at day 10 so thats the next landmark-

S

Time will tell Steve, however at 10 days NOAA give two bites of the cherry so to speak, 6-10 and 8-14, neither have any signal, however slight, at least to my eyes, of any suggestion YET, of the change you mention. Six days from now who knows, so by 7 December they should, if it is going to occur, be showing something? By then assuming that to be correct then both main models should be showing something similar as well and consistently.

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