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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

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44 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Anyway the 500mb EC this morning but not GFS shows an interesting idea. IF it is correct is it the first indication of some kind of block developing way west, and possibly from the area Nick mentions, link below I hope!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

John Holmes is the boy regarding his 500mb charts, fair play.

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13 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

However, in the longer term, the raising of angular momentum counts towards making the next period of amplification much more favourable for a switch in the NAO although once again, the risks will be a west based NAO.

How will the west based NAO effect our weather?

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19 minutes ago, MPG said:

How will the west based NAO effect our weather?

The blocking will be to far West for Europe to benefit cold so the cold will probably flood into the mid/West Atlantic.Roughly speaking.

Edited by joggs
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2 hours ago, -Bomber- said:
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Anyway the 500mb EC this morning but not GFS shows an interesting idea. IF it is correct is it the first indication of some kind of block developing way west, and possibly from the area Nick mentions, link below I hope!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Yes John the ens anomaly  also has significant ridging NE Canada (not totally unexpected) which promotes the European HP to move a lttle north and perhaps bring a short period of more settled to the south. But looking at the ext anomalies out to T360 it reduces the ridging and re-emphasises the trough in the eastern Atlantic and a return to more unsettled weather for all but particularly the north.  THe EC32 mean does exactly the same around that time frame which is why I said it's not totally unexpected. I can't find any reason for any major change unless there is a change of thinking vis the sustainability and orientation of the ridging NE Canada.

I don't know why that top comment has come  up just ignore

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

Edited by knocker
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The 00z extended EPS control run shows the ridge over far NE Canada/Labrador by day 10 moving out into the far north Atlantic as a transient ridge that slides E/SE toward the UK, but it would at least allow enough amplification for a cold northerly/toppler. Though with the trop PV reforming over Nern Canada and Greenland. Even the extended EPS H500 mean towards day 15 increases the -ve height anomaly over the UK and south into Europe to replace the Euro +ve height anomaly.

But as GP points out, a block looks unlikely to form far eough east over the N Atlantic/S Greenland.

Edited by Nick F
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49 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The 00z extended EPS control run shows the ridge over far NE Canada/Labrador by day 10 moving out into the far north Atlantic as a transient ridge that slides E/SE toward the UK, but it would at least allow enough amplification for a cold northerly/toppler. Though with the trop PV reforming over Nern Canada and Greenland. Even the extended EPS H500 mean towards day 15 increases the -ve height anomaly over the UK and south into Europe to replace the Euro +ve height anomaly.

But as GP points out, a block looks unlikely to form far eough east over the N Atlantic/S Greenland.

Neafs going the same way too Nick.

naefsnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.6cf60ed94a72cd

It is no real surprise to see Canadian height anomalies,as others have said it fits a strong nino pattern for Winter.

Analogue is for west based QBO strong nino Winters(+1.5C).

565ed1987659c_dectofebwqbonino.thumb.png

If the amplification verifies it should be enough to cool NW Europe for a spell to something more seasonal with a more north or north westerly flow at least temporarily.

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
insert correct image
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A decent F.I on this mornings 6z, shows that cold/snow is possible without major HLB. This I believe is the best possible outcome with the current strong PV.

gfsnh-0-288.png?6

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6 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Latest temp anomaly thoughts for Dec-Feb from  Cohen

image.png

Interesting they have Scotland  and south east with above + anomaly with rest of Uk negative 

Edited by John Badrick
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3 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Interesting they have Scotland  and south east with above + anomaly with rest of Uk negative 

Yes it is interesting, seeing that we are so insignificant in relation to the rest of the world. Greenland is above average, maybe an indication of blocking.

Edited by MPG

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Just now, John Badrick said:

Interesting they have Scotland with above + anomaly with rest of Uk negative 

Well, not sure :-) It is December to February and I imagine its the anomaly over 3 months, so Scotland starting a little colder doesn't mean it will continue to be. Also, if you break down the colours, the anomaly isn't really that big in the grand scheme of things.

Also, it appears only part of Scotland is above and only part of English below.

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I get the feeling that Coehn's updates are as manic as some posts in here so whilst I would never dismiss them I would also not have much faith in them.

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CFS v2 putting itself in the frame to win the 'Wells O'Toole' Trophy for Jan 2016.

 

cfs-3-1-2016.png?18

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CFS v2 putting itself in the frame to win the 'Wells O'Toole' Trophy for Jan 2016.

 

Is that a sliding low in the Atlantic :cold:  ( i know its anomaly chart really!)

CFS really is chocolate fireguard material, having been keeping a close eye on what it has thrown up of late. Run to run, it went from one extreme to the another! 

Edited by Mark N
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So eyes down for the new GFS coming to you live with the 12Z run.

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2 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Is that a sliding low in the Atlantic :cold:  ( i know its anomaly chart really!)

CFS really is chocolate fireguard material, having been keeping a close eye on what it has thrown up of late. Run to run, it went from one extreme to the another! 

It would be a potential slider if the target timeframe wasn't a range, my post really was to illustrate that the CFS has been churning out very mild charts for ages now, just wondering if it is beginning to get to grips with any potential SSW in January thus agreeing with Tony Wells and Ed O'Toole's Netweather winter forecast which predicted a potential spell albeit not a whole month of blocking in January, yes your right it is chocolate teapot material but even the worst models have to come on board eventually if any prediction is going to verify.

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We also have upgraded GFS ens to come  after this run...maybe we can have a little more confidence on any future pattern change than with the last lot.

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20 hours ago, Mucka said:

 

Look at the amplification upstream, particularly over Canada, that is what Crew is referring to I believe.

As previously stated we can't predict we would get a cold spell from that sort of set up but it would definitely put us in the game for blocking second half of Dec.

Interestingly the ECM control looks very cold and snowy as we hit mid December.

If nothing else a block over Canada may well promote a more SE trajectory of the lows spinning towards the UK medium term.Hopefully starting the demise of that horrid Euro high!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Ian F, I wonder if you could enlighten us to the latest thoughts on any potential pattern change - are we likely to see one mid month, or is it just as per the charts we can see - glow possibly more from the NW?

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55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CFS v2 putting itself in the frame to win the 'Wells O'Toole' Trophy for Jan 2016.

 

cfs-3-1-2016.png?18

The anomaly struggles to tell the whole story, the surface temperature anomaly is near to above average across the whole of the UK with above average rainfall, so southerly winds and quite of lot of rain from slow moving fronts if the CFS was correct.

cfs-8-1-2016.png?18

In fact that is pretty dire for most of Europe (barring Scandinavia which would be cold and dry).

You really need the low anomalies to be digging into southern Europe (A neutral anomaly over most of Spain still represents high pressure in place as you would expect for the region in normal conditions).

I might do some digging later to find some ensemble predictions from the CFS for the coming winter as opposed to these single runs which can be a little wayward in terms of getting a consistent signal.

Anyway moving onwards, the 12z suite awaits.

Edited by OPI Kenobi
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39 minutes ago, OPI Kenobi said:

The anomaly struggles to tell the whole story, the surface temperature anomaly is near to above average across the whole of the UK with above average rainfall, so southerly winds and quite of lot of rain from slow moving fronts if the CFS was correct.

cfs-8-1-2016.png?18

In fact that is pretty dire for most of Europe (barring Scandinavia which would be cold and dry).

You really need the low anomalies to be digging into southern Europe (A neutral anomaly over most of Spain still represents high pressure in place as you would expect for the region in normal conditions).

I might do some digging later to find some ensemble predictions from the CFS for the coming winter as opposed to these single runs which can be a little wayward in terms of getting a consistent signal.

Anyway moving onwards, the 12z suite awaits.

 

Yes but the high anomaly is only strong over Scandinavia, it is shallow over Europe, you have to understand that it is a mean for the month, almost intuitively looking at that chart we would have to have a cold spell via the Low heights moving further East and ive looked through the whole January run and I was right, theres an Easterly around 20th onwards.

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While there is no blocking or cold in the later stages of the 12z run we do see the recurring trend of the Jet digging further south.

 

gfsnh-0-348.png?12gfs-5-348.png?12

 

EDIT: I lied

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Edited by SN0WM4N
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GEM at day 10 looking good.

 

image.png

Edited by Ali1977
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