Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Too many posts claiming poor charts for cold lovers.  Nothing has changed over the past few days, it's just the charts playing out different scenarios.  One day the easterly is on then the next day the easterly is off.  Which chart is correct?  In my experience, easterlies pop up at short notice so the charts a few days ago showing easterlies in 10 days time could be correct.  Time will tell.

Over the last week there hasn't been a single chart show a true easterly, just this much colder air to the east trying to penetrate west. But due to the positioning of the scandi high and the PV there's not a cat's chance in hell of any deep cold advecting west to us in this set-up. That's why they are poor charts for cold lovers, It's only a matter of time before the block to the east gets completely shunted awa by the milder atlantic. However as I've stated in my earlier post it's 2-3 weeks down the line we might see something much better due to upstream signals.

[MR EXTREMES]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Looking at the GEFS anomalies this morning doesn't hold out much hope in the short term but later an indication of positive height rises to the W/SW which is also what the EC32 is indicating around that time.

Also massive amounts of northern blocking as the atmosphere has changes happening Theres plenty of everything but all this subject to changes as the last five days of model outputs have shown northern blocking of sorts.

i firmly believe that changes will come beyond mid Jan with spring especially March.

 

[shaky]

Unbelievable differences at 144 hours!!low dirsupting a bit more and higher heights to our north!!!deep low has vanished!!!

[chris55]

ECM means at 120-144. A bit better than the Op with everything slightly further south and west, not quite there in terms of delivering for most of the U.K. but it wouldn't take much to bring us into the firing line. 

 

[Hotspur62]

What do they say No Pain No gain.The search for cold atm is like fighting Mike Tyson in his pomp!!Yep nearly impossible,The models have done a 180 in the space of Cold to Mild/Average temps but as I said last night the NH profile looks pretty goodwhere I am sitting as January progresses.The 0z gfs seems too progressive to me and you can just go back to what Nick Sussex said a couple of pages ago to judge on that one.

Just sit back and enjoy as nothing is certain past about T96 and things will change and lets hope it is for the Colder!!

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Unbelievable differences at 144 hours!!low dirsupting a bit more and higher heights to our north!!!deep low has vanished!!!

Sorry shaky, but I'm struggling to see much difference to be honest 

[chris55]

So close lol, it wouldn't take much to swing some of that cold air into the mix on the north west side of that cut off low exiting to the south east! Just shows the finer details could have big repercussions. 

[Liam J]

Shetland never that far away from some frigid air so anyone up there looking for cold will be happy with the output! Not so great elsewhere... 

 

[knocker]

Finer details indeed

[Harsh Climate]

15 minutes ago, shaky said:

Unbelievable differences at 144 hours!!low dirsupting a bit more and higher heights to our north!!!deep low has vanished!!!

 

Still not a chance of getting any of that deep cold into UK

 

Unless you live on a mountain or above 300m in the north these charts are nothing to get excited at.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

So close lol, it wouldn't take much to swing some of that cold air into the mix on the north west side of that cut off low exiting to the south east! Just shows the finer details could have big repercussions. 

And to add if memory serves me right, don't the models always try to push through the block too easily in these situations only to find as we get nearer to the time we could find ourselves with upgrades rather than downgrades??

[bluearmy]

Both ECM parallels were further south yesterday and the 12z again delivered some decent snow over later on.  The 00z one is due soon but would be quite a turnaround for the big Atlantic trough in a weeks time to disrupt, given all of the current modelling. Coldies need to put their faith in the heights to the northeast edging west at a low enough latitude. Not out of the question yet. 

[Geordiesnow]

I think the ECM is a slight improvment from last nights run whilst the UKMO is obviously more of a downgrade. Although I say an easterly is a low chance because of the lack of evidence of supporting an easterly but you can never say never in such a set up like this. 

As other people have alluded too though, its not a true Scandi high, it will be at the moment then it will start to retreat towards Russia but its influence will still affect Scandinavia which will influence low pressure systems slowing down and trying to head south eastwards for our part of the world. Do seem a bit of a missed opportunity in the early part of the run when we got a true scandi high and if after all this is done with and there is no cold to speak of, I still stand by the fact it be a missed opportunity. 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

So close lol, it wouldn't take much to swing some of that cold air into the mix on the north west side of that cut off low exiting to the south east! Just shows the finer details could have big repercussions. 

I don't think this over yet. Not by a long chalk. Strangely enough, unlike many of the negative posts this morning regarding cold, I feel more positive than I did 24 hours ago. Reason? The models will still not know how the trough will react as it slides up against that mega cold block early next week. Probably another couple of days before this is resolved.

[mulzy]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Both ECM parallels were further south yesterday and the 12z again delivered some decent snow over later on.  The 00z one is due soon but would be quite a turnaround for the big Atlantic trough in a weeks time to disrupt, given all of the current modelling. Coldies need to put their faith in the heights to the northeast edging west at a low enough latitude. Not out of the question yet. 

Hi BA - is there a place where the ECM parallel can be viewed?

[MPG]

So much northern blocking on the models (especially the 6z). Its funny, all this high pressure and the UK still in a westerly flow, then the high pressure from the south pushing up later in the run. Norway getting a good winter from on it seems.

Edited December 30, 2015 by MPG

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Hi BA - is there a place where the ECM parallel can be viewed?

Only behind a paywall I'm afraid

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still think something is lurking round the corner. Repeatedly we are seeing a tanking -AO  being modelled with a possible negative NAO following in suit. It's then we just need the right orientation if the systems to flood the cold down to us. Remember 1947 didn't kick off until the end of January and it evolved in the most unusual way too, with Iberian heights suddenly sucked up over us and then setting up shop over Iceland and Scandi. 

Edited December 30, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[legritter]

11 minutes ago, MPG said:

So much northern blocking on the models (especially the 6z). Its funny, all this high pressure and the UK still in a westerly flow, then the high pressure from the south pushing up later in the run. Norway getting a good winter from on it seems.

As many are aware the end of run charts are so different ,even at mid range a big difference ,so going by todays charts its very interesting not boring ,and copiouse amounts of rain probably some surprises for some ,all very active weather in the northern hemisphere so i personally expect everything including the kitchen sink ,got woken this morning by a large trampoline hitting the house so kitchen sink to follow ,take care cheers .

[cheeky_monkey]

6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Still think something is lurking round the corner. Repeatedly we are seeing a tanking -AO  being modelled with a possible negative NAO following in suit. It's then we just need the right orientation if the systems to flood the cold down to us. Remember 1947 didn't kick off until the end of January and it evolved in the most unusual way too, with Iberian heights suddenly sucked up over us and then setting up shop over Iceland and Scandi. 

why do people keep saying  1947 did not kick off until end of January ...when its complete nonsense.!..sorry for having to keep sayng this.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

why do people keep saying  1947 did not kick off until end of January ...when its complete nonsense.!..sorry for having to keep sayng this.

The real cold winter period of 1947 did start late Jan.

[iamgazza]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The real cold winter period of 1947 did start late Jan.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/severe-winters

[Shuga ice]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

why do people keep saying  1947 did not kick off until end of January ...when its complete nonsense.!..sorry for having to keep sayng this.

What they are trying to say is that the most noteworthy part of that winter started around 21st January 1947.   There were other periods of cold prior to the 21st Jan but it was mild, around 11 deg c in a large part of the U.K. In the run up to the main event.

[damianslaw]

Will keep saying it - we are entering a transitional period in early January as the northern hemisphere undergoes a major change with stronger heights building over the Arctic - a cross polar flow so to speak leading to a pincher attack on the Polar Vortex.

The common feature from all the models is for low pressure to come unstuck somewhat as it hits the UK, blocked by heights to the NE - trough disruption is the order of the day. GFS is prone to ramping up energy off the atlantic on most occasions - even in the quieter late spring period, and with 4 runs a day is the model most prone to error.

Keep an eye on height development to the SW as shown by certain operational runs combined with cut off low feature later next week - this is the synoptical development most likely to lead towards a much colder set up - i.e. heights then building into mid atlantic, trough sunk SE into central Europe and heights to the NE pulled SW towards Greenland.

In the meantime a very unsettled period ahead - but temps nearer the seasonal average, snow most likely in the north down to quite low levels on occasion.

[weatherguru14]

Have you noticed how people always mention the extremes when it comes to model reading?.. In the summer it was always  2006  and how the summer could end up like that.. The models were not showing that .And  right now they are not showing any extremes of the likes of 1947.. The jet  stream is very active  and its pumping low after low our way.. which is very typical at the time of year.. Doesn't take a genius to work out its not going to get cold enough or settled enough for snow.. Time will tell if  it we get any prolonged snow in January or February. Unlikely if the same weather partner continues..