Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Captain Shortwave]

The ensemble suites are tending to stop the cold air over south east Europe with the rest of Europe remaining fairly mild.

GEFs anomaly at day 8

Russian high pushing into Scandinavia check.

But there is still a ridge pushing through central Europe which acts to stop the cold air pushing further west with the UK in a mixed pattern, the trough eventually realigns into an unsettled south westerly pattern.

850 remain above normal from Switzerland/Germany westwards on the GEFs, last nights ECM is similar (We must recognise quite a few cold runs over Europe will be surface cold based so the cold members are a little more complex than meets the eye).

This mornings ECM seems to have stalled the cold in a similar position to the ensembles this morning.

In the end the entire high gets blown away, someone blew up the Scandi high rather than the death star this morning.

 

It is worth saying that this ridge was well forecast by the ensemble suites over the past week or so, they also stated that there would be no cold conditions before new year, again a pretty good medium range prediction. The question has always been developing a pattern where cold air can effectively move westwards into most of Europe and the UK.

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[knocker]

A quick look at how today's rain may  pan out  and hoping it doesn't get stuck over the NW as is possible

[knocker]

A snapshot in the land of oz which is emblematic of the gfs run with some nasty depressions running NE past the UK

Edited December 26, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

The overview of the ecm run is not dissimilar to the gfs although naturally, in this very mobile scenario, the detail will vary.

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by knocker

[That ECM]

 Coldies need to pin their hopes on the GEM donkey this morning as the GFS and ECM shift the block East. At least it looks more seasonal but nothing majorly different.

All those suggesting that the METO  would change their longer term outlook based on the 12 z yesterday will see why they go with stronger signal.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 Coldies need to pin their hopes on the GEM donkey this morning as the GFS and ECM shift the block East. At least it looks more seasonal but nothing majorly different.

All those suggesting that the METO  would change their longer term outlook based on the 12 z yesterday will see why they go with stronger signal.

Yes GEM is beautiful this morning- GFS/ECM less so.UKMO looks best bet of the big 3 at 144h.

Very complex set up i would suggest with interaction between the blocking to the NE and the very strong PV and associated jet.

Could well end up bringing cold to central europe and nothing else or could swing back the other way.

As ever, more runs required.

[tinybill]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

The overview of the ecm run is not dissimilar to the gfs although naturally, in this very mobile scenario, the detail will vary.

 

met  office  now saying possible hurricane now  for Wednesday they seem very worried

[knocker]

A quick look at this morning's GEFS anomalies.

Upstream three thing are again consistent. The Aleutian LP and trough in the eastern Pacific, ridging in NW N. America and the vortex N, Canada. Downstream we have the Atlantic trough and the HP western Russia. I will add here that last night's ext ecm was similar with perhaps the Russian HP a tad further east.

So the only conclusion one make from this is remaining very unsettled with the temps a little above average and the cold, for the moment, locked away in the east. This can of course change.

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by knocker

[MPG]

Never relying on an easterly until t24.

A continuation of the GFS Christmas presents was just a tease. Greece looks more likely to get cold rather than the UK from this pattern.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, tinybill said:

met  office  now saying possible hurricane now  for Wednesday they seem very worried

I think with good reason although better described as hurricane force winds. There are two depressions that could well give gusts in excess of 80kts in western parts.

[northwestsnow]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html

GEM defo gets the gold star of the 0z runs

ECM ens will be interesting this morning, hopefully the op is a wild mild outlier !!

UKMO also looks full of interest at 144-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

So,although im a bit disappointed with the morning runs there is still plenty of scope for upgrades over the next 24 to 36 hours as the block to the east duals with the uber vortex!!

Edited December 26, 2015 by northwestsnow

[Jason M]

Meto looks good, Gem very good. GFS, GEFS and ECM not so good.

still in the balance this morning but my own gut feeling is that this one is moving away from us. Gem does have some support from its ensemble suite but not enough for us to have much confidence. GEFS are mostly near misses.

 

[Smiler1709]

26 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Meto looks good, Gem very good. GFS, GEFS and ECM not so good.

still in the balance this morning but my own gut feeling is that this one is moving away from us. Gem does have some support from its ensemble suite but not enough for us to have much confidence. GEFS are mostly near misses.

 

Moved away from us? It was never there to start with mate, all the hype for charts that are 200+ hours away, when in reality models struggle with t72 hours. I think we will get a block but it will rest over Siberia and the only benefit to us will be the Atlantic steam train slowing down. 

[IDO]

The cold solution, which will mean everything going right, has always been in a small cluster of GEFS over the last two days, and it was likely that the models would have an op run in that small cluster till the amplification had been resolved. The GEFS (one run) have backed well away from any UK Easterly, but a few more runs needed before we resign ourselves to missing out on this wave. Last night's ECM hi-res had no support from their mean. Again the ECM D10 mean gives little instruction for an Easterly:

 

ECM mean @D10:  GEM D10: 

The GEM is the only op this morning and it is a good one. Looking at the GEFS in the extended period and after the next 5 days of very mild weather we return to more seasonal stuff with alternating TM and PM flows:

   

The combo of MJO, strong PV, and ENSO has conspired to move an anomalous Low between Iceland and Scandi so high probability in the medium term of a positive NAO, so Atlantic running into the UK looks likely for a while. The first two months of this Winter is likely to have few opportunities for cold so it would be nice to get something from this amplification, but the odds remain low with too much energy likely to go over the top. I am still hopeful of a cold Feb/March (based on CFS output averaged out).   

Only a guide but the GFS rainfall totals for the next 10 days for the W/NW/Highlands could be very high and that and potential storms look like remaining the headlines rather than cold and snow. ECM track of that low overnight into Wednesday: 

  

Accompanied by more rain to the regions already suffering.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by IDO

[Geordiesnow]

I know people will be focusing on the exact detail but again, if you do that, then your going to be up and down within each run. 

Clearly yesterdays UKMO run underestimated the Atlantic as we can see the block is further eastwards but crucially, the block does not sink and for me, aslong as this remains the case, there is always a chance but as per usual with these set ups, the details will no doubt vary quite a bit. 

That said, an easterly is still a long way off but its not something that can't be completely ruled out. I'm content with this mornings runs, none of them are following the GFS lead of removing the scandi high but sadly, none followed the UKMO's lead of having the jet stream less strong thus the block further West giving the UK more chance of tapping into that much colder air. 

Meanwhile that deep low is still a concern for midweek and still far from certain on how it will develop although the GFS has toned it down a bit whilst the ECM may of toned it up a bit but its hard how much of the UK the ECM models is projecting that low to hit and how intence it is whilst its around the UK shores.

[bluearmy]

Whilst the ECM mean looks Atlantic driven, the spreads are better than yesterday's 12z with a cluster of sorts showing an undercut and cooler uppers almost making it across from the continent. given that this is quite a tricky evolution to model, there is certainly no need to assume anything although for the time being, the upstream vortex rules the roost and drives the Atlantic through.  Note that this would be on a se trajectory once it gets past the meridian, which should remove the euro heights, (perhaps only temporarily)

[Jason M]

31 minutes ago, Smiler1709 said:

Moved away from us? It was never there to start with mate, all the hype for charts that are 200+ hours away, when in reality models struggle with t72 hours. I think we will get a block but it will rest over Siberia and the only benefit to us will be the Atlantic steam train slowing down. 

What hype? You must have been reading a different thread 'mate'.

I think people have been very realistic and measured tbh. Its been pretty much a ramp free zone in here.

Always been odds against, but some runs have shown an easterly and therefore peeps are entitled to comment.

Anyway, let's see what the day brings.

 

[Duane S.]

14 minutes ago, Jason M said:

What hype? You must have been reading a different thread 'mate'.

I think people have been very realistic and measured tbh. Its been pretty much a ramp free zone in here.

Always been odds against, but some runs have shown an easterly and therefore peeps are entitled to comment.

Anyway, let's see what the day brings.

 

Spot on. On this occasion there has been no ramping, no going OTT, just grounded discussions surrounding the chart output. Of course, plenty of cold bias and optimism added into the mix but it would be a bit dull in here without that aspect. I for one welcome all genuine objective arguments against but don't welcome the seemingly inevitable Devils Advocate element from some.

With a vortex as tight, frigid and positioned as the one we have, I am sure most on here realise we are always going to be up against any sort of decent cold spell reaching our shores. Therefore when there is a window of opportunity, such as what happens next after the now set in stone WAA surge northwards over Scandinavia, why the heck shouldn't people speculate, hypothesise and dream? It's all part of the fun and, more importantly, the whole point of this winter thread isn't it??

[knocker]

The ecm Anomaly at T360 has most of the key players still in position. The slight adjustment is that the trough is in the western Atlantic and a suspicion of the European HP nudging north. It is around this period that the EC32 introduced more influence from the latter.

Just to add having just read that there was no hype or ramping of cold in here yesterday I'm now awaiting the announcement that the death of meteorological satire is confirmed

Edited December 26, 2015 by knocker

[shaky]

O6z looks a lot better so far!!high stronger aswell!!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

O6z looks a lot better so far!!high stronger aswell!!

Indeed Shaky- looking better at 144h, still plenty of room for upgrades..

[Bristawl Si]

To my relatively untrained eye it's looking like a poss repeat of January from a couple of years ago where the eastern 'block' was too far East and effectively 'held' the LPs from the Atlantic right over the UK.

And we know what happened then.......wet, wet, wet!

[SMU]

GFS 06z heading towards the UKMO 00z at 144 - but not quite this run

As we know GFS struggles with trough disruption in the mid term but will slowley work it out in the end

a nice step in the right direction none the less -

also the cold over the continent better alligned on this run 

[northwestsnow]

Its a pretty decent block to the NE at 1050mb but we desperately need that jet to split and see some energy going under at 144h.

[mulzy]

The easterly solution within 240 hours was always a long-shot.  I would rate it as 20% max.  It's the potential implication for the rest of January that' s in play here.

Meanwhile the ECM De Bilt ensembles show more clustering to cold.

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by mulzy